Author Topic: Election 2012 (Read 234891 times)

Scheavo · « **Reply #1190 on:** February 08, 2012, 04:32:51 PM »

Quote from: rumborak on February 08, 2012, 02:01:29 PM

OK, somebody needs to explain to me then, how can it be that the delegates fly in the face of the public opinion? Isn't the point that the delegates represent their constituency?
I may be going on a limb here, by if RP supporters just stick around long enough to be delegates and then intend to do whatever they please at the RNC, I'm pretty sure the RP movement will pay dearly.

rumborak

This whole thing shows us how fucked up the electoral college is, and the nomination processes that follow it.

TL · « **Reply #1191 on:** February 08, 2012, 06:40:04 PM »

Regarding last night's contests;
Just when I think the primary season may be wrapping up prematurely, it gets hilarious again.

I would love to have seen the look on Romney's face when he realized he had lost all three. Or even better, when he found out that, in Minnesota, he was 10 points behind Ron Paul.

The King in Crimson · « **Reply #1192 on:** February 08, 2012, 11:16:15 PM »

Clearly, the only way for the GoP to actually pick one of them is for Paul, Santorum, Romney and Gingrich to get into a teleporter together and hope that what comes out the other end is, at the very least, slightly more palatable than a Jeff Goldblum Brundle-fly.

lordxizor · « **Reply #1193 on:** February 09, 2012, 06:36:42 AM »

This whole delegate thing makes no sense to me. How can a person lose the popular vote, yet gain all the delegates from a region?

jsem · « **Reply #1194 on:** February 09, 2012, 06:44:05 AM »

They're the ones that stay behind and vote for delegates.

kirksnosehair · « **Reply #1195 on:** February 09, 2012, 07:23:05 AM »

None of this matters anyway. Ron Paul has no more chance of winning the nomination than Ronald McDonald.

lordxizor · « **Reply #1196 on:** February 09, 2012, 07:34:31 AM »

Quote from: jsem on February 09, 2012, 06:44:05 AM

They're the ones that stay behind and vote for delegates.

So everyone votes for a candidate, many of them leave, and those who remain pick the delegates? Why aren't they compelled to vote for the winning candidate?

jsem · « **Reply #1197 on:** February 09, 2012, 07:46:34 AM »

I have no idea. Some people are uninformed about the caucus process and the Paul campaign is very involved in caucus training. I wouldn't be surprised if Paul ends up with over half the unbound delegates from all the caucus states combined.

hefdaddy42 · « **Reply #1198 on:** February 09, 2012, 09:55:46 AM »

Quote from: kirksnosehair on February 09, 2012, 07:23:05 AM

None of this matters anyway. Ron Paul has no more chance of winning the nomination than Ronald McDonald.

Ron Burgundy!

rumborak · « **Reply #1199 on:** February 09, 2012, 10:14:58 AM »

I would like to vote for Vermin Supreme:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFXXAuDK1Ao

I want my pony!!

rumborak

splent · « **Reply #1200 on:** February 09, 2012, 10:34:43 AM »

Vermin Surpreme for president
Basil Marceaux for VP

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fnx-SqMYknI&feature=related

rumborak · « **Reply #1201 on:** February 09, 2012, 11:46:08 AM »

Holy crap. If those were the best shots, I can only imagine what the worse ones were.

rumborak

kirksnosehair · « **Reply #1202 on:** February 09, 2012, 01:57:56 PM »

Quote from: splent on February 09, 2012, 10:34:43 AM

Vermin Surpreme for president
Basil Marceaux for VP

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fnx-SqMYknI&feature=related

I love that guy

rumborak · « **Reply #1203 on:** February 09, 2012, 04:26:32 PM »

Here's a question: Does the current expenses for the candidates cut into the later funds when the nominee runs against Obama? A lot seems to come from public donations, and the longer the current struggle goes on, it strikes me the less money is left for the actual campaigning.

On another note, it seems Santorum misses no chance to spew his Christian hate.

rumborak

Scheavo · « **Reply #1204 on:** February 09, 2012, 09:18:00 PM »

Quote from: rumborak on February 09, 2012, 04:26:32 PM

Here's a question: Does the current expenses for the candidates cut into the later funds when the nominee runs against Obama?

Ya.

jsem · « **Reply #1205 on:** February 09, 2012, 11:47:19 PM »

I wonder if in Virginia, all Santorum supporters and Gingrich supporters are going to vote for Paul. Romney is a bigger threat clearly.

TL · « **Reply #1206 on:** February 11, 2012, 02:21:22 PM »

Quote from: jsem on February 09, 2012, 11:47:19 PM

I wonder if in Virginia, all Santorum supporters and Gingrich supporters are going to vote for Paul. Romney is a bigger threat clearly.

I could see that happening, especially if Paul does well in Maine tonight.

I would love to see Romney's reactions to recent developments. This primary season has really delivered on the entertainment factor so far; even the so-called inevitable nominee can't stay ahead.

rumborak · « **Reply #1207 on:** February 11, 2012, 02:45:15 PM »

I do not envy the Republicans. I mean, overall the candidates are shit. You essentially got the choice between a hateful Bible thumper, the crazy uncle, the deathbed divorcer, and the crazy-religion Obama copycat.

rumborak

jsem · « **Reply #1208 on:** February 11, 2012, 03:17:26 PM »

So Ron Paul wins Maine tonight and Mittens wins CPAC - guess which one the media is going to pump?

Quote from: rumborak on February 11, 2012, 02:45:15 PM

I do not envy the Republicans. I mean, overall the candidates are shit. You essentially got the choice between a hateful Bible thumper, the crazy uncle, the deathbed divorcer, and the crazy-religion Obama copycat.

rumborak

I have to make some remarks regarding this though. Santorum has NO credibility left as a social conservative after he tried to cover up the sex scandal of John Ensign - just saying. He's a crooked hypocrite on family values.

edit: wut, mitt won maine!?

snapple · « **Reply #1209 on:** February 11, 2012, 03:24:51 PM »

Quote from: rumborak on February 09, 2012, 04:26:32 PM

Here's a question: Does the current expenses for the candidates cut into the later funds when the nominee runs against Obama? A lot seems to come from public donations, and the longer the current struggle goes on, it strikes me the less money is left for the actual campaigning.

On another note, it seems Santorum misses no chance to spew his Christian hate.

rumborak

Hey rumby, I know you're not this way but, I feel I need to say this anyway

Please, don't let someone as stupid as Santorum represent Christianity in your mind. He's an idiot.

Thanks,

Christian (actually mah name)

jsem · « **Reply #1210 on:** February 11, 2012, 04:26:25 PM »

I really thought Paul would win. I'm actually VERY surprised about this.

rumborak · « **Reply #1211 on:** February 11, 2012, 05:48:47 PM »

I expected it to go either way tbh. Both had strong support, RP because of the libertarian lean of Maine (just like in NH), Romney because of its proximity to MA. People might be libertarian leaning there, but they're also moderate.
And it was a crucial state for both too. Mitt really needed to win this one to show he could break the counter-momentum Santorum generated, and RP needed to win it to show he can win states. In that sense, Mitt definitely won tonight (also because of CPAC), even if it was just by a few inches.

Interestingly, now there's gonna be nothing for more than 2 weeks, and Super Tuesday is just around the corner. After that I would think things are settled.

rumborak

TL · « **Reply #1212 on:** February 11, 2012, 07:07:51 PM »

Apparently 10% of the caucuses in Maine aren't going to be counted because they're holding their caucuses after today. In a contest this close, that seems more than a bit fishy. Also, the vote seems to be holding around 95% reporting, and I wouldn't count on that hitting 100, seeing as Minnesota is still "95% reporting". The vote gap between Romney and Paul right now is about 195. That missing 5% of the vote that they actually are counting represents about 295 based on the current vote. They're just straight up not going to include it, even though it certainly could change the outcome.

Basically, the establishment has decided that they wanted Romney to win this one. I'm not even a Paul supporter, and I'm calling bullshit on this.

Super Dude · « **Reply #1213 on:** February 11, 2012, 07:53:17 PM »

Nothing less than what I'd expect from that wholesome buncha folks.

rumborak · « **Reply #1214 on:** February 11, 2012, 08:09:17 PM »

Quote from: TL on February 11, 2012, 07:07:51 PM

Apparently 10% of the caucuses in Maine aren't going to be counted because they're holding their caucuses after today. In a contest this close, that seems more than a bit fishy. Also, the vote seems to be holding around 95% reporting, and I wouldn't count on that hitting 100, seeing as Minnesota is still "95% reporting". The vote gap between Romney and Paul right now is about 195. That missing 5% of the vote that they actually are counting represents about 295 based on the current vote. They're just straight up not going to include it, even though it certainly could change the outcome.

Basically, the establishment has decided that they wanted Romney to win this one. I'm not even a Paul supporter, and I'm calling bullshit on this.

Eh, hold the conspiracy theory horses on that one. Reality is that all counties had the chance to get counted; all they needed to do was to move their caucus dates before today (or today). The counties knew very well (and for a looong time) that if they don't do it they won't get counted. So, this was by choice. Also, there's no reason to believe that the distribution of the remaining counties would be vastly different in terms of outcome than all the others.
So, it's a non-issue really.

rumborak

TL · « **Reply #1215 on:** February 12, 2012, 01:24:39 AM »

Again, I'm not a Paul supporter.
Regardless of what the Maine GOP agreed upon, the voters were not properly represented tonight. It's very possible that Romney legitimately won, but now we'll never know.

The fact remains, a Paul victory after three Santorum victories would have been devastating to the Romney campaign, so it's not out of the question. I personally just don't want Romney sailing to victory entirely on the whims of the GOP higherups.

I won't be shocked if Romney wins a few more contests, and then we learn that Paul actually won Maine, all too late for it to actually make a difference.

kirksnosehair · « **Reply #1216 on:** February 12, 2012, 06:05:54 AM »

Sounds a lot like what happened to Santorum in Iowa

jsem · « **Reply #1217 on:** February 12, 2012, 08:21:05 AM »

Meh. The next and only Paul win will then come in Washington State. He was 4% behind a win there in 2008, so he's got in the bag if he just hits Seattle tomorrow and starts campaigning.

Delegate wise, I think Paul is going to advance with a huge delegate percentage from Maine, that's what the grassroots is revealing.

Also, Maine is only: 83.7% reporting (502/600). That's quite the number of precincts left.

rumborak · « **Reply #1218 on:** February 12, 2012, 08:26:32 AM »

Quote from: TL on February 12, 2012, 01:24:39 AM

Again, I'm not a Paul supporter.
Regardless of what the Maine GOP agreed upon, the voters were not properly represented tonight. It's very possible that Romney legitimately won, but now we'll never know.

https://www.mainegop.com/2012/01/maine-g-o-p-2012-caucus-information/

Quote

The Maine Republican Party is encouraging all municipal committees to hold their caucuses between February 4th and 11th

You'd have to reel in a big conspiracy theory to say those precincts were forced to not move theirs up.

Also, a little math here: There've been 5524 votes so far, which is 83.7%. Which means the 100% would be about 6,600 votes.
That means 1076 votes are still to come.
Right now Mitt leads RP by 194 votes currently. Which means, for RP to win against Mitt he has to have at least 194 more votes than Mitt would get with the remaining incoming votes. 194 votes are 18% of the remaining. Which means, RP would have to have 18% on top of his 35.7%, i.e. more than 50%.

The likelihood of RP having more than 50% in the remaining precincts, where overall he has 36%, is rather low I would say. Possible, but low.

rumborak

jsem · « **Reply #1219 on:** February 12, 2012, 08:33:17 AM »

Well, they're not even going to count the other precincts for the total straw vote - so it doesn't even matter anymore except for delegates, which Ron Paul is going to own.

rumborak · « **Reply #1220 on:** February 12, 2012, 08:37:23 AM »

Oh I know, they're not going to revise the delegate allocation, even if the overall result changes. But TL seemed to imply that there'd been some funky business happening, that's why I was rolling that out.

Regarding RP's delegate scheme, as a Democrat-leaning person, god do I hope that RP supporters can pull it off. It would be a major outrage in the GOP, and if it went through Obama could take a dump on the American flag and still be reelected.

rumborak

rumborak · « **Reply #1221 on:** February 12, 2012, 08:57:04 AM »

Quote from: snapple on February 11, 2012, 03:24:51 PM

Quote from: rumborak on February 09, 2012, 04:26:32 PM
Here's a question: Does the current expenses for the candidates cut into the later funds when the nominee runs against Obama? A lot seems to come from public donations, and the longer the current struggle goes on, it strikes me the less money is left for the actual campaigning.

On another note, it seems Santorum misses no chance to spew his Christian hate.

rumborak

Hey rumby, I know you're not this way but, I feel I need to say this anyway

Please, don't let someone as stupid as Santorum represent Christianity in your mind. He's an idiot.

Thanks,

Christian (actually mah name)

Weeeellll, I appreciate the sentiment. But, Santorum is being strongly supported by Christians all over the country. You're right, one person's statements doesn't much about Christianity, but 30% of the GOP (in certain states)? That's something different.

rumborak

snapple · « **Reply #1222 on:** February 12, 2012, 12:33:43 PM »

I get that. But, you know, politicians say/do/blow anything to get a vote. Especially if there is money behind said vote. He's against heavy metal and blames most of societies problems on it, too. I do believe Santorum is an idiot of colossal magnitudes.

jsem · « **Reply #1223 on:** February 12, 2012, 12:40:53 PM »

He said that about metal? Really?

snapple · « **Reply #1224 on:** February 12, 2012, 12:43:26 PM »

Quote from: jsem on February 12, 2012, 12:40:53 PM

He said that about metal? Really?

Yeah, don't remember where I found it, but I'm looking

News: Video of online chat between fans and members of Dream Theater: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sx8cLlXnHpA&feature=youtu.be (*no chickens were harmed during the filming of this chat)

Author Topic: Election 2012 (Read 234891 times)