From my perspective, things are looking pretty grim at the moment. For the first time ever, the world is faced with the prospect of a fairly significant (not uber significant) sovereign state going belly up in Greece. This would have serious implications for the Euro area, and by extension the global economy. Couple that with signs of overheating in developing Asia, the long-term public finance challenges faced by the US and Japan, and shambled labour markets in most of the developed world and its hard to be that optimistic at the moment.
This is different to the GFC, as that was primarily a private sector (even more specifically, private sector financial) phenomenon that spread to the real economy by contagion rather than the opposite; which is what is happening this time around. So, I ask you, where do you think we will be in 12 months time? If you could be so kind as to provide some words to back up your selection, that would be fab.
EDIT: for the record, I think option four is most likely given the current state of play.