Poll

In 12 months time, will the world economy

be performing much better than now
0 (0%)
be performing slightly better than now
2 (50%)
be about where it is now
1 (25%)
be a bit worse than now
1 (25%)
be much worse than now
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 4

Author Topic: The World Economy  (Read 8203 times)

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Offline Riceball

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #35 on: June 26, 2011, 05:47:59 PM »
re: the oil reserves; the way I see it its a shot of macroeconomic stimulus. Bringing the oil price down should help consumers in the western world and ease pressure on inflation in the developing world. Good move.

If I remember correctly, G20 finance ministers met over the past week and this was probably one of the outcomes. Ofcourse, they won't admit it though.
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Offline Rathma

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #36 on: June 26, 2011, 06:10:39 PM »
Good move.

In the veeery short run.

Offline Riceball

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #37 on: June 26, 2011, 06:24:23 PM »
Well, yes, ofcourse its short-run; but what more can you expect from the ineptitude of developed world policy makers? ;D
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Offline Riceball

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #38 on: August 03, 2011, 06:42:29 PM »
I think it may be time to necro this thread. Markets are tanking left right and centre at the moment...generally a pretty good sign that someones about to get their shit fucked up. Yields on Italian and Spanish bonds are getting into danger territory (400 pips above bunds - which is what triggered Greece and Ireland), and US data is pretty damn horribile.

I'll reset the poll; and for the record, the pessimists won 16 to 4 with 14 people afraid to stick their neck out.
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Offline Super Dude

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #39 on: August 03, 2011, 08:20:43 PM »
I think it may be time to necro this thread. Markets are tanking left right and centre at the moment...generally a pretty good sign that someones about to get their shit fucked up. Yields on Italian and Spanish bonds are getting into danger territory (400 pips above bunds - which is what triggered Greece and Ireland), and US data is pretty damn horribile.

I'll reset the poll; and for the record, the pessimists won 16 to 4 with 14 people afraid to stick their neck out.

Did this happen because of fears about the US default?
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Offline Riceball

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #40 on: August 03, 2011, 08:41:43 PM »
My read is that global investors were so focussed on the US debt ceiling debacle that they weren't really paying attention to any other rumblings in the global economy. Basically, most of the data out over the past two weeks has been shite (particularly confidence, labour market and consumption stuff - manufacturing appears to be holding up quite well) and they are now playing catch up. Ofcourse, I don't really like using financial markets as a guide, but when three things happen in concert: yield curves invert, stocks fall heavily and currencies move a lot; somethings up. Japan also unilaterally intervened to weaken its currency this morning (evening), with the finance minister saying he had "contacted other central banks to discuss the possibility of intervention, and after which decided Japan could only act unilaterally (ie, noone else liked the idea)".

My worry is that US payroll data due out tomorrow will potentially be the tipping point (there it is again); good data and this might all blow over for now, bad data and things could get ugly next week.

Couple that with continued unrest in MENA, Italian and Spanish yields pushing into danger territory and a Chinese government focused on bringing prices under control. To be honest, we might have a bit of Three Stooges Syndrome at the moment.
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Offline Super Dude

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #41 on: August 03, 2011, 08:45:04 PM »
It's things like this make me wonder if Congressmen and Senators are just blissfully unaware of anything going on outside of the US.
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Offline Riceball

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #42 on: August 05, 2011, 01:27:49 AM »
I'd just like to say in light of this:
From a book of famous quotes: "Economists are experts who will know tomorrow why what they predicted yesterday didn't happen today."
I was right about last night :p
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Offline Super Dude

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #43 on: August 05, 2011, 05:18:47 AM »
:P

But I was right about the slight chance of economic armageddon.

We really need to stop with this deficit bullshit.  It's time to focus on the real problem: unemployment.
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Offline MasterShakezula

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #44 on: August 05, 2011, 05:23:02 AM »
:P

But I was right about the slight chance of economic armageddon.

We really need to stop with this deficit bullshit.  It's time to focus on the real problem: unemployment.

Um, I definitely agree that unemployment is the issue of the here and now. However, what is your plan, since you seem perfectly fine with companies outsourcing and the gov giving companies no real incentives not to.

Offline Super Dude

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #45 on: August 05, 2011, 05:25:26 AM »
When did I ever say that?  Although there actually isn't anything wrong with that, and no offense Master Shak, but I'm not sure you know enough about economics or politics to make a judgment, based on our previous discussions. :p
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Offline MasterShakezula

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #46 on: August 05, 2011, 05:30:36 AM »
Um, it did seem in previous discussions that you were more in favor of outsourcing than not.

I seriously want to see what your plan is, in terms of the unemployment issue and resolving it, as it probably is a good idea and would end up working a good deal better than whateve is attempted by DC.

Offline Super Dude

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #47 on: August 05, 2011, 05:32:55 AM »
Global integration.
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Offline MasterShakezula

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #48 on: August 05, 2011, 05:45:48 AM »
Hmm... the pressure on businesses here to do extremely well through high-quality products and compotent leadership, due to having to compete on a global scale could end up getting good things done.

Offline Super Dude

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #49 on: August 05, 2011, 05:52:28 AM »
Exactly.  I don't remember which P/R thread it's in (try 'You know what the problem is?'), but I pretty much outline the problem for Reap, that instead of taking the leap to innovate and compete on a global scale, American companies nowadays turn to Capitol Hill to make domestic competition easier for them, through such horrifying measures as striking down green tech bills or emissions cap bills just so Ford won't have to try as hard to compete with electric vehicles coming out of Japan or something (it's a hypothetical, but you get the point).
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Offline MasterShakezula

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #50 on: August 05, 2011, 05:57:05 AM »
Hmm, it seems with each time I wander here, I see more and more of the answer, and it seems, from my view, now, that the problem is that our companies are poorly manage and intend to have an iron grip on the gov in order to not have to actually compete with foreign companies who produce greater quality products.  What do we normal people do?

Offline Super Dude

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #51 on: August 05, 2011, 06:46:11 AM »
Hmm, it seems with each time I wander here, I see more and more of the answer, and it seems, from my view, now, that the problem is that our companies are poorly manage and intend to have an iron grip on the gov in order to not have to actually compete with foreign companies who produce greater quality products.  What do we normal people do?

I mean that's not *exactly* where it is, but yes on the whole American corporate culture is infected with an unfortunate management mindset (not really poor management, but sort of a failure to place the long-term over the short-term).

And y'know what?  I have no idea what we can do.  All I know about is global warming and clean tech policy, I don't know shit about market or corporate politics, let alone about what the average Joe can do.
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Offline Riceball

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #52 on: August 05, 2011, 07:43:24 AM »
What can the everyday dude and dudette do? Not much, unfortunately. As with SD, I've made my points on the US labour market in another thread; but in summary alot of the job creation of the previous decade was driven by the asset bubble, when it popped it all faded and seeing as it hasnt inflated again, you'll see a long, slow period of structural adjustment.
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Offline Riceball

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #53 on: August 24, 2011, 07:18:20 PM »
So, how are we feeling now?
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Offline lordxizor

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #54 on: August 25, 2011, 09:20:00 AM »
So, how are we feeling now?
Great! How are you?

Offline Scheavo

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #55 on: August 25, 2011, 11:09:21 AM »
Seems like nothing has really happened since you asked the question except the passage of time...

Offline Riceball

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #56 on: August 25, 2011, 07:03:08 PM »
A little bit has happened, but you are right time has kind of passed with nothing of real note going on...

I saw an interesting Bloomberg chart that a colleague emailed to me the other day; on overnight interbank lending rates for the world's 7 largest banks. Over the past month, risk premiums have essentially doubled, which is what occurred during the lead up to the Lehman collapse in '08. Slightly concerning...given the world's largest sovereign areas (the US and EU) are so policy-ed out that they literally couldn't respond to another shitstorm with stimulus.

News out of China has been pretty good though; inflation looks like its flattening out and production indicators are still ticking over. The stupid gold rally looks to have come off finally, which is nice, and equities and currencies are looking a bit more stable than this time two weeks ago.

Bernanke's speech tonight (tommorrow for everyone else, I guess) will be very important. To print or not to print, that is the question.

Great! How are you?
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Offline Super Dude

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Offline Riceball

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #58 on: September 05, 2011, 07:41:45 PM »
It appears GFC mkII may be upon us. Yield curves are inverting, default swaps and interbank rates are spiking higher in Europe. Apparently Deuche Bank is up shit creek, ala Lehman Bros; get ready for another wild ride this week!
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Offline Super Dude

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #59 on: September 05, 2011, 07:44:46 PM »
I heard someone say this entire global financial crisis and all the recession have been nothing real in a sense, but a confidence crisis.  Is that true?
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Offline Riceball

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #60 on: September 05, 2011, 07:48:24 PM »
Confidence is no doubt playing a role, but its kind of like one of those things where you create your own fate; weak confidence breeds weak confidence and eventually people just throw in the towel. We are seeing it happen in Australia, in particular my state Western Australia who has the fastest growing, most stable economy in the developed world right now. Confidence has fallen to GFC levels, despite low unemployment, rising incomes and a once-in-a-generation mining boom.

IMO, and in the opinion of many right now, political leaders are being so insipid in the face of challenges that constituents have lost faith, hence the fall in confidence. Although, the US and Europe do have their fair share of problems, both economic and financial. A weak political response compounds this; at times like these you need real leaders not political animals.

Wow soapbox much lol
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Offline Super Dude

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #61 on: September 05, 2011, 08:15:02 PM »
Soapbox or not, you're totally right.  In the absence of real leaders, as in your words, we get very real Hitlers 'n' stuff.  Not that I think something that crazy would happen in the modern day and age, but it is in times of such hardship that the radicals come out of the woodwork.
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Offline Riceball

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #62 on: September 05, 2011, 08:49:14 PM »
You wouldn't be referring to a number of candidates for the American Presidency on a certain side of the political spectrum, would you?  ;D
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Offline Super Dude

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #63 on: September 05, 2011, 10:19:54 PM »
Actually I wasn't but you see what I mean now, don't you? :p
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Offline emindead

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #64 on: September 06, 2011, 09:33:23 PM »
I heard someone say this entire global financial crisis and all the recession have been nothing real in a sense, but a confidence crisis. Is that true?
Funny you mention this. The first time I heard this excuse was back in 2008 by my best friend who studies economics. Boy, how wrong she was :lol

Offline Dublagent66

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #65 on: September 07, 2011, 08:27:53 AM »
A year from now, everyone will be wishing it was this year again.
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Offline Riceball

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #66 on: September 21, 2011, 05:39:05 PM »
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Offline Riceball

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #67 on: November 01, 2011, 06:54:28 PM »
So, Europe's fucked.

Hows things in the US? Recent data has been pretty good, not great certainly. Dat 2% growth is certainly a good sign...
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Offline Super Dude

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #68 on: November 01, 2011, 07:43:17 PM »
What's fucking Europe today?
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Offline Riceball

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #69 on: November 01, 2011, 07:53:21 PM »
Well, you know how the EU worked out the 5th iteration of their "final plan" to fix the debt crisis? Greece's PM decided that, for the first time, he would like to put it to a referendum...which he hasn't done for the other four packages.

Seriously dude, you've just been given the fiscal equivilant of a golden handshake, and you want to let your pissed off, unemployed citizens decide whether its in their best interests? Dick move lol. In response to this, his party has basically fractured and he now holds just a two-seat majority in parliament, with the opposition parties vowing to scrap the deal if they get in power.

I hark back to this point I made a month or so ago:

...at times like these you need real leaders...

Its quite bizzare really. Everything I'm reading is kind of saying WTF is this dude doing? Just bizzare.

And the impact of this deal falling through will be another "Lehman moment" as its being colloquially called now. It will trigger a disorderly default on Greek debt and will likely push Italy and Spain over the edge too - in which case the newly beefed up European Financial Stability Fund won't be enough to back stop the shitstorm that will happen.

So yeah, things aren't great. Although as we have seen far too many times in this debacle, things can turn on a 5c piece...

On a somewhat related note, interesting read on the banking sector, political class and decision making. Very insightful (this authour is great):

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/European-Union-Greece-debt-crisis-referendum-banks-pd20111102-N7RAJ?OpenDocument&src=sph
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