Poll

In 12 months time, will the world economy

be performing much better than now
0 (0%)
be performing slightly better than now
2 (50%)
be about where it is now
1 (25%)
be a bit worse than now
1 (25%)
be much worse than now
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 4

Author Topic: The World Economy  (Read 8205 times)

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Offline Riceball

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The World Economy
« on: June 16, 2011, 10:29:26 PM »
From my perspective, things are looking pretty grim at the moment. For the first time ever, the world is faced with the prospect of a fairly significant (not uber significant) sovereign state going belly up in Greece. This would have serious implications for the Euro area, and by extension the global economy. Couple that with signs of overheating in developing Asia, the long-term public finance challenges faced by the US and Japan, and shambled labour markets in most of the developed world and its hard to be that optimistic at the moment.

This is different to the GFC, as that was primarily a private sector (even more specifically, private sector financial) phenomenon that spread to the real economy by contagion rather than the opposite; which is what is happening this time around. So, I ask you, where do you think we will be in 12 months time? If you could be so kind as to provide some words to back up your selection, that would be fab.

EDIT: for the record, I think option four is most likely given the current state of play.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2012, 10:55:29 PM by Riceball »
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Offline Tick

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2011, 06:49:22 AM »
Options 3 and 4 are pretty much the same. Take your pick on either one of them.
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Offline lordxizor

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #2 on: June 17, 2011, 06:53:56 AM »
I think things are still going to get worse, particularly in Europe (over the Greece mess) and Asia. Stagnant wages and rising costs in the US are going to hurt, but I wouldn't predict a massive crumbling of the economy here. But who knows. I'm just a regular Joe.

Offline emindead

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #3 on: June 17, 2011, 05:06:24 PM »
By TLC do you mean FTA?

Offline Super Dude

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #4 on: June 17, 2011, 06:26:54 PM »
I don't think twelve months is enough time to get the world's act together.  Look at the last three years; things have changed, but we're still in what many would consider a recession and barely a recovery.  And I don't know shit about economics! :lol

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Offline PraXis

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #5 on: June 18, 2011, 01:00:37 PM »
I recommend that you all start stocking up on food, water, and ammo 2 years ago. ;)

Offline Adami

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #6 on: June 18, 2011, 01:31:21 PM »
I recommend that you all start stocking up on food, water, and ammo 2 years ago. ;)

Good idea, minus the ammo, that way everyone can work together and help everyone else. :)
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Offline Super Dude

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #7 on: June 18, 2011, 01:50:34 PM »
I recommend that you all start stocking up on food, water, and ammo 2 years ago. ;)

Good idea, minus the ammo, that way everyone can work together and help everyone else. :)

:tup
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Offline PraXis

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #8 on: June 18, 2011, 04:59:13 PM »
I recommend that you all start stocking up on food, water, and ammo 2 years ago. ;)

Good idea, minus the ammo, that way everyone can work together and help everyone else. :)

LOL

Just like in Katrina.... no thanks. I'm saving for me and my family alone.  When SHTF all I'm sharing is lead.

Offline Adami

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #9 on: June 18, 2011, 05:04:24 PM »
Oh yes, you're the one who's sense of morality can be summed up as "F**k you!".
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Offline PraXis

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #10 on: June 18, 2011, 05:34:28 PM »
Oh yes, you're the one who's sense of morality can be summed up as "F**k you!".

Depends. Bartering is important in tough times, but when the other side has nothing to offer then no thanks. OPSEC is important.. I can say whatever I want on a forum, but when it comes to reality, no one knows that I have anything (other than immediate family).

Offline rumborak

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #11 on: June 18, 2011, 05:47:18 PM »
Well, if you actually care about your survival in those cases, you should look at precedents. The groups that survive are usually the ones that implemented a mini-Communism, sharing all their resources. The loners usually croak from lack of clout against natural forces.

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Offline Adami

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #12 on: June 18, 2011, 05:50:08 PM »
I recommend that you all start stocking up on food, water, and ammo 2 years ago. ;)

Also, I just thought of a question. I'm sure when you say you want lots of ammo, it's to protect yourself and your family from others who might want all of your base to belong to them. However, what if you didn't prepare properly? Just say you find yourself desperately needing something, and someone else has it who has no desire to give it away or trade it. Would you use the ammo to take it by force?
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Offline PraXis

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #13 on: June 18, 2011, 05:57:30 PM »
I recommend that you all start stocking up on food, water, and ammo 2 years ago. ;)

Also, I just thought of a question. I'm sure when you say you want lots of ammo, it's to protect yourself and your family from others who might want all of your base to belong to them. However, what if you didn't prepare properly? Just say you find yourself desperately needing something, and someone else has it who has no desire to give it away or trade it. Would you use the ammo to take it by force?

I would NEVER harm anyone, unless it was for self defense. I am probably over prepared (well... no such thing really). I would be glad to provide details if anyone is curious or concerned, but it would have to be through PMs.

@rumborak - I agree and I do have several resources that have mutually agreed to barter certain specialties. However, we are very exclusive and for good reason.

Offline rumborak

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #14 on: June 18, 2011, 06:09:10 PM »
I find this really interesting, more from an engineering point of view.
When one does these preparations, what is the goal? Just having enough food and drink for X months in the expectation that society will have rebooted until then?  Or do you try to be indefinitely self-sufficient?
Or, do you just guard yourself against the most likely reasons of said societal breakdown? E.g. you build a fallout shelter because you think a dirty bomb is the most likely, or a hermetically sealed room with internal air supply against biological attacks, or even H1N1?

rumborak
« Last Edit: June 18, 2011, 06:16:24 PM by rumborak »
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Offline PraXis

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #15 on: June 18, 2011, 06:19:47 PM »
I find this really interesting, more from an engineering point of view.
When one does these preparations, what is the goal? Just having enough food and drink for X months in the expectation that society will have rebooted until then?  Or do you try to be indefinitely self-sufficient?
Or, do you just guard yourself against the most likely reasons of said societal breakdown? E.g. you build a fallout shelter because you think a dirty bomb is the most likely?

rumborak

Initially, it begins as simply preparing for natural disasters, be it whatever season it is and [XYZ] occurs and the power goes out for a couple days. Beyond that, it's trying to be as self-sufficient as you can if something REALLY BAD occurs. Unfortunately, pure self-sufficiency is not possible where I live, so I try to utilize my "group" for the assets or skills that I lack. That would be the ultimate goal if I lived somewhere in the country where I could own a large number of acreage, possibly, farm, etc.

I'm not at the level of building underground shelters... not paranoid enough for that (and again, I lack the land/resources). Guarding against a potential societal breakdown IS a fear of mine though. But let's say something bad happens (use your imagination) and it lasts just two weeks.... your local grocery store won't have more than 48-72 hours of supplies.. people will be going NUTS and show desperation.. if you're prepared in what ever way you can, you can weather the storm.

It REALLY depends where you live.. I'm not saying I need to be out in the middle of Montana, but if I had 20 acres somewhere an hour from a town, it would be a lot better. You learn a lot though.. I never knew much about solar/wind power until I started experimenting and "practicing" for bad times... makes me sleep a lot easier.. and as for stocking up on ammo... it's fun to work on those skills!

Offline rumborak

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #16 on: June 18, 2011, 10:06:39 PM »
I'm still not sure what kind of event you're sort of expecting. Natural disasters (the most likely I guess) have a way of wreaking such havoc to your best-laid plans, I would find it hard to plan for it. Put the stuff in the basement, and a flash flood nullifies your plans. Put it in the attic, and a tornado nullifies that one. How do you expect the unexpected? Look at Fukushima; hundreds of engineers made it their every-day living to plan for the unexpected, and still failed.

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Offline Rathma

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #17 on: June 18, 2011, 10:31:37 PM »
I think everybody knows deep down that we're pretty screwed. It's not very acceptable to be blah blah pessimistic though, since a good economy depends on a positive minded public. From an individual's point of view, though, its probably better to prepare for the worst.

Offline PraXis

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #18 on: June 18, 2011, 11:44:06 PM »
I'm still not sure what kind of event you're sort of expecting. Natural disasters (the most likely I guess) have a way of wreaking such havoc to your best-laid plans, I would find it hard to plan for it. Put the stuff in the basement, and a flash flood nullifies your plans. Put it in the attic, and a tornado nullifies that one. How do you expect the unexpected? Look at Fukushima; hundreds of engineers made it their every-day living to plan for the unexpected, and still failed.

rumborak


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Offline XJDenton

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #19 on: June 19, 2011, 08:59:58 AM »
Societal breakdown is like the prisoner's dilemma but on a national scale. Which is troubling.

Offline Dublagent66

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #20 on: June 22, 2011, 08:24:38 AM »
Well, reading that 1st option in the poll is pretty much what got us here in the 1st place.  We should be on the road to financial responsibility or nothing will ever get better.  The fun is over.
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Offline Rathma

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #21 on: June 24, 2011, 05:19:14 AM »

Offline Super Dude

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #22 on: June 24, 2011, 05:22:26 AM »
I think we're peaking this year or something.  I dunno, do we got an expert in the house?
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Offline lordxizor

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #23 on: June 24, 2011, 06:15:00 AM »
http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2011/06/house-dems-applaud-obama-for-tapping-strategic-petroleum-reserve-boehner-says-move-threatens-nationa.html

Uuuuuh isn't this supposed to be a last resort? Is the world already running out of oil?
I don't think those reserves are really meant for when the world runs out of oil, are they? It's not like it would last for more than a few weeks if we really did run out.

Offline Super Dude

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #24 on: June 24, 2011, 11:24:23 AM »
I hate to toot the "greed of the higher ups" horn, but lookit what I found:

http://lifeinc.today.com/_news/2011/06/23/6928660-good-graph-friday-youre-working-harder-theyre-making-money

Quote
By Allison Linn, senior business writer
 
A new graphic from Mother Jones shows what many of us suspect: We’ve gotten a lot more productive in recent years, but our wages haven’t reflected that.
The richest Americans, on the other hand, appear to be doing a better job reaping the rewards of everyone’s hard work.
The graphic, which uses data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Congressional Budget Office, Census Bureau and the Economic Policy Institute, shows that productivity has risen steadily over the past three decades, while overall wages have barely changed.
Meanwhile, the nation’s wealthiest have seen their income surge.
The chart is part of a series the left-leaning magazine is running on what it calls “The Great Speedup.” That’s a reference to the old trick of speeding up the production line and asking workers to make more widgets faster.
In addition to first person tales of being overworked, the magazine posits that we're all facing the great speedup:
Sound familiar: Mind racing at 4 a.m.? Guiltily realizing you've been only half-listening to your child for the past hour? Checking work email at a stoplight, at the dinner table, in bed? Dreading once-pleasant diversions, like dinner with friends, as just one more thing on your to-do list?
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Offline Scheavo

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #25 on: June 24, 2011, 12:19:38 PM »
Those CEO's, sitting on board adn giving directives, earned it, don't ya know? Sure, they work less than anyone below them, but it's only becuase of their ingenuity that anything gets made!

Offline Super Dude

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #26 on: June 24, 2011, 12:59:20 PM »
I mean I think there is merit to saying that higher ups have more responsibilities in terms of getting the whole thing to operate smoothly; without them pulling the strings and figuring out the maze, corporations would be nothing more than a clusterfuck of grunts.  Honestly there is no easy or good answer, if you ask me.
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Offline lordxizor

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #27 on: June 24, 2011, 01:10:06 PM »
I don't pretend that I could do what the CEO of my company does. But is his job 100x more important or 100x more difficult to do than mine? I doubt it. So how come his pay is probably 100x greater than mine?

My biggest annoyance is when CEO's get raises or bonuses if the rest of the company doesn't.

Offline Super Dude

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #28 on: June 24, 2011, 01:58:59 PM »
Maybe the CEO isn't vastly more important but I wouldn't say the person whose job it is to make 100,000+ grunts work in unison is equally important as said individual grunt.  But I agree, bonuses/raises should trickle down.

Perhaps adding to the confusion is the fact that during the boom of the last decade 100% of growth went to the richest 1%.
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Offline Scheavo

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #29 on: June 24, 2011, 02:05:17 PM »
I suppose my statement did come out a tad too against management, but it's absurd what kind of compensation they get for the kind of work they do.

That, and a lot of the income from the top 1% comes from the stock market, where people are doing nothing productive in and of itself.

Offline Super Dude

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #30 on: June 24, 2011, 02:09:02 PM »
Yeah, don't get me wrong, I do still believe they're vastly overpaid. :lol

It's just that they do still merit more payment than underlings since they run the show; just give the underlings more money.
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Offline Rathma

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #31 on: June 25, 2011, 09:29:07 AM »
I think we're peaking this year or something.  I dunno, do we got an expert in the house?

The U.S. already peaked in the 70s. As for world peak, its pretty controversial.

Offline Super Dude

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #32 on: June 25, 2011, 10:26:04 AM »
Oh yes, I meant the world peak, sorry. :P
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Offline XJDenton

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #33 on: June 25, 2011, 12:05:25 PM »
http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2011/06/house-dems-applaud-obama-for-tapping-strategic-petroleum-reserve-boehner-says-move-threatens-nationa.html

Uuuuuh isn't this supposed to be a last resort? Is the world already running out of oil?
I don't think those reserves are really meant for when the world runs out of oil, are they? It's not like it would last for more than a few weeks if we really did run out.

They need to last for 90 days by law.

Offline PraXis

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Re: The World Economy: A Poll
« Reply #34 on: June 26, 2011, 04:34:43 PM »
I got another huge raise this year and I work for a fortune 1000 company. There are many that got big raises, but they key is you have to be a great, innovative worker. If your job is at risk of soon-to-be automation or cheaper employee can be found for the same work, then you're screwed.