I see the current climate in the Middle East as unrelated to OBL. I'd say that he got exactly what he wanted with regard to the US. While his role with AQ has been reduced to that of figurehead, our actions couldn't have been any more inline with what he sought. The two wars were the best recruiting tool and the best publicity he could have ever hoped for. And with the decentralized nature of terrorist groups, his leadership wasn't very important anyway. Figurehead was the best role for him. I'll also add that he's spent the last 6 years living the family life in a house on the hills, all the while watching us on CNN blow billions on useless body scanners and otherwise acting like frightened children. We might have hurt AQ in some ways, but the bigger picture favored his interest in AQ.
As for the revolutions taking place, they're both good and bad for OBL's goal. They're doing exactly what he was ostensibly seeking, which is the ouster of US puppet leadership. However, they're taking a completely different path to doing so that what he was promoting. This doesn't help him at all. Regardless, they're really unrelated to our conflict with AQ, so I wouldn't use that as an indicator in his war with us.