Whether we get a new album or not, they've kinda shot themselves in the foot at this point. They could have gone out a long time ago and said the truth, but they've kept saying "yeah sure, we're working on music" for almost 10 years, which clearly isn't the case. Maybe it would be better for themselves not to release another album? If they did, I think people would expect an album even better than Lateralus or Aenima, because it's been 10 years in the progress, and there's no way current Tool could make an album that good again.
Scenario A (the most likely) is that Tool will continue to tour sporadically (whenever they need to pay their bills) and play their "best of"-setlists, and there won't be another album. They will continue talking about one in the pipeline, possibly even teasing some new riffs on tour, but ultimately nothing will come from it.
Scenario B is that we get another reunion-type of album that we have seen lately, similar to what Faith No More put out last year. One of those albums you listen to and go "oh yeah, this is pretty good I guess", but ultimately it fades away and doesn't hold up to the very best the band has put out.
Either way it's a shame. Tool is a really cool band with a unique take on Progressive Rock/Metal, but in 30 years as a band they have only managed to squeeze out 4 albums. Sure, I consider 3 of those great (or better) and the debut was solid, but it's still a shame they never built anything more on top of that. You have a lot of cult bands who put out a few amazing albums and then split up, but the frustrating part is that Tool isn't one of those bands. Tool has been active (with some pauses) and they're still very much a thing, yet their creative spark seem to have run out a long time ago. But to be fair, I think that started to show a bit on 10k Days already. As great of an album as it was, it didn't quite reach that level of Lateralus and Aenima, and parts of it did feel like going through the motions.