Random musings about Prop 19.
I have no idea if it'll pass. People are panicky about the budget problems, and most know that prohibition is a bad idea. Yet, the Republicans are pretty damned mobilized, and this looks a lot like a fairly clear cut, left/right political matter. Looks like a toss-up to me.
If it passes, it'll eventually be deemed a failed experiment. The way I see it, most of what they're using to try and push it is bullshit. The revenue forecasts are insane. People with means will grown their own high quality smoke in their garage or second bedroom. People without means will grow their own crappy dope in the backyard. Half the people who choose to buy it for convenience will get it from the same dealer they do now because $50/lid tax is fairly steep. The dealers will undercut the commercial sellers.
Uncle Sammy will put the boot down on a few, select parties just to exert supremacy. If they pick the right parties, medium sized connoisseur grade growers and distributors, and large scale outfits that lack the protection afforded by huge corporate ownership, they can really screw up the success of the attempt. I suspect that any federal enforcement will be aimed at undermining the success of the program and will be moderately successful.
The cost of prohibition won't be effected since they'll just move Johnny to other things. They're not going to suddenly lay off 500 coppers just because they're not needed to bust stoners any more.
Pot use will eventually increase (though that's happening anyway). The notion that normal, law abiding people will suddenly run out to buy a bag is silly. However, as public perception of smoking becomes more tolerant, more people will partake.
One thing that will come of it is that it'll be slightly harder for kiddos to score a bag. I can tell you that it was a lot easier for me to get weed than beer when I was 14. I guess some people will consider this a good thing.
Lastly, as one who is a friend of the bong, I'd vote against the thing. Cali is already a great place to be a stoner. They're going to take a nice thing and ruin it. They're adding unnecessary regulations and drawing too much attention from elsewhere. While I obviously think that total decriminalization is the right thing to do, this doesn't come close, and sometimes the right move is just to lay low and be happy with what you've got.