Tension Between North Korea and South Korea

[AwakeFromOctavarium]

https://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/05/25/n.korea.threats/index.html?hpt=T1

North Korea announced Tuesday a freeze in relations with South Korea and threatened military retaliation in response to alleged intrusions into its waters by the South Korean navy.
North Korea's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea said it would "abrogate the agreement on non-aggression" amid heightened tensions on the divided peninsular over the sinking of a South Korean warship earlier this year.
An official South Korean report accused the Communist North of firing a torpedo at the ship, killing 46 sailors.
A North Korean military official accused the South of intruding into North Korean waters in the Yellow Sea from May 14 to 24, the Yonhap news agency reported."This is a deliberate provocation aimed to spark off another military conflict in the West Sea of Korea and thus push to a war phase the present north-south relations," the official said in a statement, according to Yonhap.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged North Korea Monday to reveal what it knows about the "act of aggression" that sunk a South Korean warship.
She also said the United States' "support for South Korea's defense is unequivocal" and that North Korea should "stop its belligerence and threatening behavior."
South Korea has said a probe concluded the North fired a torpedo that sunk a South Korean military ship in March. The United States supports that finding, Clinton said while in China.
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak announced Monday that his country was suspending trade with North Korea, closing its waters to the North's ships and adopting a newly-aggressive military posture toward its neighbor."We endorse President Lee's call on North Korea to come forward with the facts regarding this act of aggression and, above all, stop its belligerence and threatening behavior," Clinton said.
U.S. President Barack Obama has directed military commanders to work with South Korean troops "to ensure readiness and to deter future aggression" from North Korea.

Another war at hand? This one isn't going to be something like Iraq. It's gonna be much bigger. No possibility of WWIII though. But then, I bet US is pretty much eager to test their new "high-tech" weapons.

[El Barto]

Yawn.  I stopped paying attention to these flair ups years ago.

[ack44]

 Kim Jong Il please go.

[Adami]

Yawn.  I stopped paying attention to these flair ups years ago.

Good. They're mostly meaningless.

[AwakeFromOctavarium]

Yawn.  I stopped paying attention to these flair ups years ago.

But I reckon this is the first flair that actually involved blowing up of a warship?

[ack44]

Yeah, this is a little bit serious.

[Adami]

South Korea will take tons of punishment before doing anything. The US won't interfere because they're spread too thin and can't afford to do much. If the US doesn't help, no one else will care enough to.

Yes, this doesn't mean much yet.

[El Barto]

True (if we are to assume that they actually did).  However, I doubt it rises to the level that begins a war nobody seems to want.  Neither the US nor the DPRK can afford it, and S. Korea is outmatched without a great deal of help.  As long as nobody wants war, it'll take a much more serous transgression to bring one about.  A bunch of minor ones won't do it.

[ack44]

The US can't afford war but there is the problem that the longer NK exists, the bigger nuisance it becomes. NK is going to fall apart some time in the future, probably before any of the major establishments of today break down, so what scenario would have the least casualties/damage...

[AwakeFromOctavarium]

So you are saying let NK self-decay? I'm sure they are gonna have a final struggle, if KJI is as insane as stories say, and attacking first rarely fails. Especially in high-tech warfare.

[Adami]

So you are saying let NK self-decay?

Yes.

[ack44]

So you are saying let NK self-decay? I'm sure they are gonna have a final struggle, if KJI is as insane as stories say, and attacking first rarely fails. Especially in high-tech warfare.

 If KJI was actually in charge of NK, the country would be in a much worse condition, if that's even possible.

[emindead]

These are some interesting thoughts from a poster of reddit:

I see so much misinformation and silly ideas on reddit regarding North Korea, it is kind of painful to read. As a former US intelligence officer, stationed in the south who has read dozens of books on the North, and follows the news on this very closely, I feel I have some semi-intelligent thoughts to add.

First, to disappoint the conspiracy theorists, the North is quite guilty of sinking the Cheonan. After the incident, the South brought in experts from multiple countries, including Sweden, the US, and Japan to conduct the investigation. Bits of a torpedo manufactured in the North were found around the blast site. Those pieces were compared to a captured north korean torpedo from several years ago, and found to be consistent. Explosive residues were also found and consistent with the types of explosives used by North Korean torpedos. Other circumstantial evidence, such as satellite photography of submarine bases also points to North Korea. In short, there is no other rational explanation.

So, the North did it but why? A couple reasons:

   1.

      Retaliation for a recent naval clash between the North and South late last year. The Northern ship was forced to withdraw after it caught fire. This could be considered an embarrassing defeat for the North. KJI may want to get revenge, and may want to look good for his military commanders.
   2.

      Internal politics. KJI is old, has substantial health problems, and wants to get his young (about 29 years old) son into place as successor. In addition, it is not clear how much of a hold on power KJI actually has. The currency reform last year sparked a minor wave of discontent, and he may still be dealing with that fallout. Also, korean society places great emphasis on age and seniority. Getting a very young ruler in place is difficult. Taking all of this into consideration, KJI needs to consolidate power amongst the ruling elite and garner support for his son. So, he provokes a fight, and garners support from the very conservative military commanders. He shows that he is still in command and is able to control his country.
   3.

      Possibility of concessions when it comes back to the bargaining table. I applaud the Obama administration for not giving in and taking a hard line stance on North Korea, and not rewarding his behavior so far. Although, it's possible this could change and KJI could get concessions if he shows he is willing to come back to the negotiating table.

Will this end in war? Unlikely. The south does not want a war. It would be devastating for the country, as many people in this thread have pointed out. China does not want a war, as it would mean millions of refugees flooding into the country from the north. The north does not want a war, as it knows it would most likely lose in the long run. In fact, North Korea recently altered it's war plans for an invasion of the South Korea peninsula. For many years, the north's plan was for a massive push all the way across the south to take control of the whole peninsula. Now, the north Koreans know even that would be too difficult, so their new plan is to take control of Seoul (only a few miles into the South) and use it as a bargaining chip to get concessions from the US and our allies.

There are some wild cards in the mix, such as KJI's health and grip on power. If those are really in question, anything could happen. There are factions in North Korea that may feel the time is right to start a coup or make trouble for KJI. It has happened before, always with very few signs to the outside world.

So, most likely we will see increased tensions for a while. UN actions will be limited, as there is not much else they can do to North Korea at this point. China may vote for the proposed actions or abstain from voting. China does not particularly care for the North Korean regime, but sees the continued stability of that regime as important for it's own national security reasons, but it wants to maintain strong economic ties with the South. It trades a lot more with the south than the north, and doesn't really want to piss of the south.

So, should be an interesting ride for the next few weeks, and then will probably calm down until KJI dies, but you never know with North Korea.

[AwakeFromOctavarium]

I'm not sure if I should believe he used to be a US intelligence officer, but then it's true that no one wants war. It's pretty stupid, though, to forgive North after they blew up an entire warship. SK deserves something in return, that's if North has anything to give.

[XJDenton]

This isn't the first ship NK has blown up. I doubt there will be war over this.

[Scheavo]

South Korea will take tons of punishment before doing anything. The US won't interfere because they're spread too thin and can't afford to do much. If the US doesn't help, no one else will care enough to.

I don't think this is true. The US military is still very very very very very very well equipped to fight traditional warfare, and we already have 20,000 or so troops stationed in South Korea, as well as munitions, etc. We are still very well situated to fight wars - what we are not well situated for is occupying a country. Fighting insurgents and "terrorists" is immensely harder and more complicated than fighting another country, where the enemy is easy to identify.


But really, this whole thing will depend upon what China does.

[El Barto]

South Korea will take tons of punishment before doing anything. The US won't interfere because they're spread too thin and can't afford to do much. If the US doesn't help, no one else will care enough to.

I don't think this is true. The US military is still very very very very very very well equipped to fight traditional warfare, and we already have 20,000 or so troops stationed in South Korea, as well as munitions, etc. We are still very well situated to fight wars - what we are not well situated for is occupying a country. Fighting insurgents and "terrorists" is immensely harder and more complicated than fighting another country, where the enemy is easy to identify.


But really, this whole thing will depend upon what China does.

This might be true, but conventional warfare in this case couldn't be anymore than defending S. Korea (which I think we could do well).   I don't think an offensive is even a remote possibility.  KJI can run amok all he wants, and the South can't do much about it without us playing ball, and moving North isn't an option. 

[ack44]

 SK's military could kick NK's ass without the help of the US. The main problem is that Seoul is close to the border and there are tons of missiles aimed at it. The amount of damage would be ridiculous.

[AwakeFromOctavarium]

The above statement is actually true. The military power of NK is so hyped up by media when in fact, SK has much better military power. Think of it logically. On a scale of 100, NK's economic budget it 10, while SK is 100. So even if NK spends 90% of their budget on military while SK spends just 15%, it's NK:SK::9:15(even this is just an estimation).

But Seoul being close to the border is a huge disadvantage, as stated earlier. Honestly, NK has nothing to lose(compared to SK) by starting the war, it's SK that's gonna experience ridiculous amount of damage. Although NK will lose the war for sure, SK will have much much more civilian casualties and structural damage.

SK has to avoid the war at all cost.

[emindead]

When I listen Hillary Clinton's warning speech I just want to laugh. I love diplomatic harsh talk prior to an attack. SK said: "if you touch us ONE MORE TIME we're through!"

*Ten years later*

"OK, THIS is the final warning. If you touch us ONE MORE TIME!!!! NOW we're through".

*Rinse and repeat*

[Tuneman]

people forget the size of the north korean army.  it is HUGE... this is a much more serious problem than Iran.

do we know of this filter : "that.s what she said" = "i would love to be banned"

[ack44]

NK is sure as hell a bigger problem than Iran. Their entire international economy is based off of selling drugs, counterfeiting foreign currencies and selling weapons into the black market. It's a fucking joke.

[Adami]

As far as the world goes, or american safety goes, tabacco is a bigger threat than Iran. Hell, Emindead is probably a bigger threat than Iran.

[AwakeFromOctavarium]

As far as the world goes, or american safety goes, tabacco is a bigger threat than Iran. Hell, Emindead is probably a bigger threat than Iran.

Good point.

[OlgaShtain]

Time has come to invade North Korea and wipe out the Korean Workers Party regime there. Kim Jong Il should be captured and executed. North Korea can then disappear as a separate country. It should be unified with the southern part of Korea.

[rumborak]

Good point. Going to war with a country is part of the Republican election platform after all. Better get cracking soon!

rumborak

[emindead]

VOTE REPUBLICAN!!!

Best first post ever?

[ddtonfire]

Welcome to DTF!

[AwakeFromOctavarium]

Best first post ever?

I've seen a slightly better one.

[AwakeFromOctavarium]

https://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2010898,00.html

Seoul and Washington say the routine military drills are purely defensive, while North Korea calls them preparation for an attack.
"The projected war maneuvers under the spurious signboard of 'defense' are belligerent and undisguised (North Korea)-targeted war exercises," Pyongyang's military said in a statement carried Sunday by the official Korean Central News Agency.
North Korea's military will deal a "merciless counterblow" to the U.S. and South Korea, "the severest punishment no one has ever met in the world," it said.
The statement did not elaborate on how the North would retaliate. South Korea's Defense Ministry said Monday it was keeping a close watch on North Korea and had spotted no suspicious activity.

Well the fact remains that the military drill is an annual thing, but the situation hasn't got better since I first made the thread. I'm not sure how long this will last. Hope it just doesn't end up to war.

[Plasmastrike]

Humans are so stupid.

[AwakeFromOctavarium]

https://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/11/23/nkorea.skorea.military.fire/index.html?hpt=T1

North Korea fired artillery toward its tense western sea border with South Korea on Tuesday, killing two South Korean marines, the South's Defense Ministry said.
Fifteen other South Korean soldiers were wounded, five of them seriously, defense officials said. Three civilians were injured in the attack.
About 100 rounds of artillery hit an inhabited South Korean island in the Yellow Sea after the North started firing about 2:30 p.m. local time, the Yonhap news agency said. Yonhap initially reported that 200 rounds had hit. The Defense Ministry said it could not confirm the number of rounds.
South Korea's military responded with more than 80 rounds of artillery and deployed fighter jets to counter the fire, defense officials said. Firing between the two sides lasted for about an hour.
The South Korean army also raised its alert condition, Yonhap said.

Now I'm really worried. Please no...

[ack44]

With 50 years of foreign aid and patience from the world North Korea hasn't made any progress towards peaceful coexistence at all. It's all up to China now.

[hefdaddy42]

WTF  I didn't think that North Korea was quite that stupid.

[ResultsMayVary]

Let's get this show rolling, I guess.