It's definitely more progish and melancholic than I expected it to be, and although it's more poppy and modern (two words I'm normally very afraid of) than his previous releases, the actual melodies themselves are EXCEPTIONAL. Maybe it's just confirmation bias. Maybe if I actually gave modern pop music a chance I'd like it.
I would say there's a good chance you would at least like some modern pop. Modern pop gets a bad rap from prog fans and from people over the age of 30. Some of it is deserved, but a lot of it isn't. If you care about strong melodies, and stuff like the song Hand Cannot Erase, you'll probably be able to find SOMETHING to love from modern pop. Personally, I try to be careful when judging music based on stylistic labels, because in my experience here are plenty of bad albums that are progish and melancholic and plenty of good albums that are poppy and modern. Anyway, there's that random diversion.
I'm four or five listens in to HCE by now (I'm really not one of those people who gets a new album and listens to it twenty times; I'll listen a few times in the first week and then usually will shelve it for a little while and let it come around), and I still like it. However, at this moment in time I would not rank it above
The Raven... or my Porcupine Tree favorites. I still don't really "get" what SW is doing with the latter part of Ancestral. The first half or so is dynamite, but it seems to wander on and on and on thereafter. I may get it at some point, who knows. Also, like some others, I'm not wild about the "Download" part of Home Invasion. One of my dislikes of Steven's songwriting and lyrical style is that sometimes he writes material that is clearly meant as some kind of harsh social criticism that is often pretty harsh musically and lyrically. In the past, those songs have settled into songs with which I have a... "like/dislike" (not quite "love/hate") relationship with. My other examples would be Four Chords That Made a Million and Halo.
But overall there's a lot to love. I'm not as head-over-heels for Happy Returns as some are, though that could have to do with being fatigued after Ancestral's meandering. Routine is probably my favorite on the album; I love the dynamics and the use of Ninet's voice. In fact, the run from First Regret through Routine is spectacular. Then it takes a dip for me with Home Invasion for the aforementioned reason, and Regret #9 which is good but not as great as the earlier stuff. The quality level gets right back to a high level for me with Transience, which is one of my favorite songs and one that seems to me to be underrated in discussions of the album so far. I've already pretty much described my opinions on Ancestral and Happy Returns, and then Ascendant Here On is just an outro. Overall at this moment I would give the album a 7.5/10, because there's a lot that I really love but some stuff that doesn't cut it for me and makes the overall thing feel a bit too long. But that rating could easily change; I've had several PT albums start out with me having that opinion "a lot of greatness, but some stuff I don't especially care for: 7/10" that would now be 9/10 for me. Remember, it's only the start.
It's only the start.