Author Topic: Election 2012  (Read 235965 times)

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Offline Ryzee

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #1995 on: April 06, 2012, 11:40:50 AM »
Hey guys, come on stop ganging up on Bosk.  He can't help it if he's conservative (and no, I don't think being consertive is a "choice," otherwise why would anybody "choose" to be conservative?).  Conservatives are people too and they deserve all of the same rights and freedoms as the rest of us, even if they live a lifestyle that we can't relate to or don't understand.  :P

Offline bosk1

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #1996 on: April 06, 2012, 11:51:20 AM »
>:(  :bosk1:

































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Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #1997 on: April 06, 2012, 12:02:44 PM »
So, I think it's interesting that you purposely found the lowest unemployment rate we hit (which was caused largely by economic conditions that have nothing to do with Obama) to cite as "damage" supposedly caused by Obama. 

Barry, you can disagree with me, but don't accuse me of purposefully doctoring the numbers, because I wouldn't do that.  When I was putting my post together, I did a quick google search, and those dates (the date Obama assumed office, and the first date two years later that data was publicly available) were in a comparison chart by the BLS in the very first link that came up.  I'm just has happy to look at the numbers you gave as well.  The present 8.3% unemployment rate is still an increase over the 7.6% rate when he took office--which was already at a problematic level.  So, again, call me out of my facts are wrong.  But don't accuse me of being dishonest with the facts because I wouldn't do that.

But at the end of the day, as I said in my first post leading into when I brought up that area, it's not even really fair to lay that at the president's feet.  I don't even say that that fact alone is indicative of the damage being done to the country.  Again, as I pointed out, the only reason I bring it up is because, from Obama's campaign up to the present, he has tried to take ownership of the issue and tried to portray it as something the White House can and does directly influence.  I would much rather he (and his predecessors) was honest about it and just acknowledged that it is a problem, and not one the White House can directly impact for better or worse.

I didn't accuse you of doctoring anything. (edit: but I apologize for my wording if you were offended. That was not my intention at all) But your cited facts are pretty selectively chosen to paint Obama in a bad light.  When you look at the entire set of facts surrounding the unemployment situation things look quite a bit different than what you're asserting here.  I think your assertion of "damage" caused by Obama is, frankly, not really supported by the facts.  There was a time when the unemployment rate was as high as you wrote.   In fact, it was even higher.  When Obama was inaugurated, the rate was 7.9% but it had already begun a slow steady climb in 2008 as the recession had begun.  According to the BLS it actually peaked at 10% in October 2009.  (9 months after Obama's inauguration) 

Now, I think it's fair to say that after only 9 months in office we were still experiencing a recession that did not commence under Obama's watch and therefor could not possibly have been caused by any policy initiatives that he brought to the table.  I don't see how anyone could disagree with that.

Now then, with the exception of a couple of small fluctuations here and there, that rate of unemployment has actually gone down steadily since October 2009 (or since 9 months after Obama was inaugurated).  What I  take issue with is the fact that you categorize this as part of the "damage" that Obama has supposedly done.  Obama did not cause the recession, nor have his policies caused any damage with respect to unemployment. 

Your other points are matters of ideology.  If you think of liberal judicial appointees as "damaging" I don't have any problem with that at all, because from a conservative perspective that is to be expected and actually makes sense.  I consider Bush's judicial appointees in the same fashion, since I am a more liberal person.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2012, 12:40:25 PM by kirksnosehair »

Offline Scheavo

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #1998 on: April 06, 2012, 01:05:49 PM »
Quote
Federal employment fell 1.3 percent in 2011, but for the three years it is up 1.3 percent, while the total fell by the same amount in Mr. Reagan’s first three years.

In other words, the number of federal jobs was up by a LOT in 2009 and up a LOT again in 2010.  And despite cutbacks in 2011,1 it is still up over the entire term.

1.  Assuming the numbers for 2011 are correct.  I have not seen the final numbers for 2011.  I know earlier in the year, the projections were looking like there was going to be more growth or simply a flatline.  If the cutbacks for 2011 actually happened as that article suggests, then that mitigates my argument somewhat, and I apologize for overstating it (except that there really isn't much to apologize for, since I said more than once that I am not putting these points out there to argue or to prove a point, but simply because antigoon asked me if I wouldn't mind saying why I felt the way I did).  But still, a 1.8% increase over his total term means he still added a net of 33,000-34,000 government jobs over 3 years to a government that was ALREADY bloated and huge thanks in large part to the prior two administrations.  So, no, what I said is not "flat out false."  I may have slightly overstated it, but it is 100% true.  The numbers don't lie.

I'll find another source, becuase I heard recently that federal numbers were down, once again.

https://www.politicususa.com/big-government-obama-reagan/

Quote
By the end of 2010, the United States STILL has less employees on the books than we did back in 1980 even though the population has grown from 226,545,805 to approximately 330,000,000 in 2010.

TOTAL NONMILITARY EMPLOYEES IN 1980 — 2,875,000
TOTAL NONMILITARY EMPLOYEES IN 2010 — 2,840,000

We have 35,000 less nonmilitary employees under President Obama than we had 30 years ago.

https://www.govexec.com/federal-news/fedblog/2011/02/has-obama-added-200000-new-federal-jobs/40406/

Quote
Still, that's new hires, not "new federal jobs," as Boehner said. Many of those hired presumably replaced people who had quit or retired. That would explain why, as Emily Long pointed out yesterday, Obama could propose to boost the size of the workforce by 15,000 employees in fiscal 2012, and still end up with 12,000 fewer workers than in fiscal 2010.

The fact is, you cannot say that the federal government is rising or growing quickly under Obama. If there is any growth, it is modest. THere are also area's where Obama is cutting federal employees, he specifically asked congress to consolidated Executive Departments, getting rid of inefficiencies, overlap, and unneeeded regulations. He can't do that without Congressional approval, however.

You're not simply "overstating it," you're selecting looking at a few area's, and making a statement about the whole.


*edit*

By the way, as for the whole economy thing and you thinking Obama is taking credit for it, that's also becuase he'd get blamed for anything that goes bad, and you know it. It's a double edged sword, and it's something I wish would fade from our political system. But it's only fair to imagine someones going to take credit for something good happening, if they're going to get blamed for something bad happening.

*edit 2*

By the way, that increase in 2010, would be because of the census. It's required by law, and it's sorta silly to blame Obama for hiring census workers.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2012, 01:17:19 PM by Scheavo »

Offline bosk1

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #1999 on: April 06, 2012, 01:43:49 PM »
By the way, as for the whole economy thing and you thinking Obama is taking credit for it, that's also becuase he'd get blamed for anything that goes bad, and you know it. It's a double edged sword, and it's something I wish would fade from our political system. But it's only fair to imagine someones going to take credit for something good happening, if they're going to get blamed for something bad happening.

I know, which is why I hesitated to even bring it up and why I made several caveats, as I have said several times now.
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Offline Scheavo

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2000 on: April 06, 2012, 01:56:05 PM »
By the way, as for the whole economy thing and you thinking Obama is taking credit for it, that's also becuase he'd get blamed for anything that goes bad, and you know it. It's a double edged sword, and it's something I wish would fade from our political system. But it's only fair to imagine someones going to take credit for something good happening, if they're going to get blamed for something bad happening.

I know, which is why I hesitated to even bring it up and why I made several caveats, as I have said several times now.

Things have not gotten worse, they've gotten marginally better, and considering we both agree that his role in this is at best a minor role, why then think this is a problem for Obama, of his policies, of his Presidency, etc?

Offline Riceball

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2001 on: April 09, 2012, 06:51:30 PM »
Really, Obama can't and shouldn't take too much credit for the tentative recovery occuring in the US. Its all, really, to do with the ultraloose monetary stance by the Federal Reserve and its impact on the US dollar rather than discretionary fiscal policy (or even automatic fiscal policy). I've never got the American fascination with the unemployment rate as a marker for whether a US president has been "successful" for the economy - its known as the greatest market economy in the world for a reason, ya know.
I punch those numbers into my calculator and they make a happy face.

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Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2002 on: April 09, 2012, 09:09:01 PM »
Whatever is happening in Europe has far greater influence than some Fed policy. IMHO.

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Offline Riceball

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2003 on: April 09, 2012, 09:14:29 PM »
Hmmm...yes and no. While there's no doubt it psychologically affects people, in reality the European debt issues are affecting...well Europe mostly in an economic sense, maybe China (but thats open to debate). Ultra loose money is getting the US economy going, and the commitment to keep rates low for an extended period creates an environment of certainty which is helping to offset the confidence effects of Europe.
I punch those numbers into my calculator and they make a happy face.

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Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2004 on: April 10, 2012, 10:21:03 AM »
Meanwhile, talk about absurd claims by politicians.

 ::)   Is there any wonder why 98% of the electorate pretty much ignores this guy?





Offline antigoon

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Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2006 on: April 10, 2012, 12:26:07 PM »
Bye bye Ricky 

Offline Implode

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2007 on: April 10, 2012, 12:32:07 PM »
Thus begins the massive celebration on Tumblr.

Offline antigoon

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2008 on: April 10, 2012, 12:48:55 PM »
Things are going to be much less entertaining now.

Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2009 on: April 10, 2012, 12:50:59 PM »
Of all people, Santorum would have been the last I would have guessed.

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Offline Sir GuitarCozmo

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2010 on: April 10, 2012, 12:54:51 PM »
Santorum pulling out?  I thought he was against birth control?

Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2011 on: April 10, 2012, 12:56:03 PM »
Of all people, Santorum would have been the last I would have guessed.

rumborak

No, Gingrich.  MASSIVE, MASSIVE EGO

Santorum could not face the humiliation of getting beaten in his home state AGAIN.  So he quit.  Fits his personality to a T

Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2012 on: April 10, 2012, 12:56:37 PM »
Santorum pulling out?  I thought he was against birth control?

 :rollin   Fuck me, that was funny  :rollin

Offline Scheavo

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2013 on: April 10, 2012, 12:57:27 PM »
Santorum pulling out?  I thought he was against birth control?

 :rollin   Fuck me, that was funny  :rollin

Wouldn't that be the form of birth control he'd approve?

And what I'm waiting to see, is how much more support Gingrich gets. Is he simply going to do better now?

Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2014 on: April 10, 2012, 01:00:41 PM »
He will get a small bump, and maybe Paul too. I would think the vast majority of people will go for Romney however, since at this point neither Gingrich nor Paul are even remotely viable.

rumborak
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Offline AcidLameLTE

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2015 on: April 10, 2012, 01:02:09 PM »
Well, Dave Mustaine is going to be upset.

Offline Implode

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2016 on: April 10, 2012, 01:19:08 PM »
Santorum pulling out?  I thought he was against birth control?

Stealing. Putting on my Tumblr.

Offline hefdaddy42

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2017 on: April 10, 2012, 03:12:09 PM »
Santorum pulling out?  I thought he was against birth control?
olol
Hef is right on all things. Except for when I disagree with him. In which case he's probably still right.

Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2018 on: April 10, 2012, 03:34:40 PM »
The remaining two now have the problem that they look even more delusional than before. If the runner-up concedes, but you're still going, can only mean you've lost all touch of reality.

rumborak
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Offline jsem

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2019 on: April 10, 2012, 04:45:20 PM »
Ugh. The race has been boring for about two months now anyway. Ever since the Maine popular vote fail.

There's not even any lulz.

Offline TL

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2020 on: April 10, 2012, 04:56:48 PM »
Of all people, Santorum would have been the last I would have guessed.

rumborak
Word has it that his kid with the rare disorder was hospitalized, and that it doesn't look good.
I was hoping Santorum would drag out this process a bit longer, but it's understandable that he's getting out based on that.

So now, the rest of the primaries are basically for show. It could be interesting to see if Gingrich and Paul do well in a few upcoming races based on most voters assuming it's over (which it is in every way but the official one), and don't show up.

Also, here's the latest electoral map from RealClearPolitics. It has Obama ahead of Romney 280 to 181, with 77 unprojected;
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2021 on: April 10, 2012, 05:06:00 PM »
Actually, my best guess is that this is part of Santorum 2016. Him leaving now keeps the notion in people's mind that he was a strong contender. He probably sees that Obama stands a good chance of being reelected, so he'll be back in 2016 when there's a big unknown from the Democratic side.

Gingrich is too full of himself to stop, and Paul is probably just burning the remaining money on his last hurrah in politics.

rumborak
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Offline Scheavo

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2022 on: April 10, 2012, 05:32:33 PM »
Of all people, Santorum would have been the last I would have guessed.

rumborak
Word has it that his kid with the rare disorder was hospitalized, and that it doesn't look good.
I was hoping Santorum would drag out this process a bit longer, but it's understandable that he's getting out based on that.

So now, the rest of the primaries are basically for show. It could be interesting to see if Gingrich and Paul do well in a few upcoming races based on most voters assuming it's over (which it is in every way but the official one), and don't show up.

Also, here's the latest electoral map from RealClearPolitics. It has Obama ahead of Romney 280 to 181, with 77 unprojected;
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Think some polls have Obama up in Florida, and without awarding Florida, they're projecting Obama wins anyways.


Offline Super Dude

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2023 on: April 10, 2012, 07:31:36 PM »
Michigan as a lean Obama? I mean I wouldn't complain if that were the case, but where are they getting those numbers?
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Offline Scheavo

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Offline TL

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2025 on: April 11, 2012, 07:10:00 AM »
Also, even without Michigan, Obama has a double digit lead in Virginia in most polls, which wasn't called for either of them in that projection, and would also put him over the 270 mark.

Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2026 on: April 11, 2012, 07:43:56 AM »
Actually, my best guess is that this is part of Santorum 2016. Him leaving now keeps the notion in people's mind that he was a strong contender. He probably sees that Obama stands a good chance of being reelected, so he'll be back in 2016 when there's a big unknown from the Democratic side.

rumborak

And he'll be the same rhetorical-vomit-spewing ideologue that he is now and will probably end up the same way he ended this time.  Remember, this is a guy who served in the Senate for almost a decade yet none of this colleagues came forward to endorse him.  The guy is toxic and definitely not POTUS material.  Don't get me wrong, I think you're right that he's probably going to try running again.  I just think he can't exercise enough control over his mouth and the junk that falls out of it to be much of a long-term viable contender.

As far as him getting out now, I doubt it has anything to do with his kid.  But it's good politics for him to let everyone assume that.  Personally, my hunch is it's probably got more to do with how bad it was going to look for him when Romney beat him in Pennsylvania.


Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2027 on: April 11, 2012, 07:45:24 AM »
Current polling is essentially meaningless.  Now that Romney and the half dozen PACs that are aligned with him can aim their shit-cannons at Obama, you watch those numbers erode. 

Offline Super Dude

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2028 on: April 11, 2012, 08:14:38 AM »
@ Scheavo and TL: it's not really a big deal, it just seemed odd considering that I know well that my home state is very, very red for a Northern state (not Texas red obviously, but unusually so for a Union state). I'm a bit of an anomaly in that sense.
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Offline TL

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2029 on: April 11, 2012, 09:23:36 AM »
It's not really surprising. Michigan went for Clinton twice, Gore, Kerry, and Obama.