Coronavirus

[Lethean]

I'm not at all suggesting that everyone can do those things.  It is indeed a bad situation.  But it's going to be worse if we just open up with no evidence that it's safe to do so.  We'll wind up with more people dead *and* more shutdowns.  I read earlier this morning that most Americans support the stay at home measures.  Most would be willing to or interested in using at home test kits.  I think most would even be willing to download and app for contact tracing (or something similar).  I think if things start opening up without evidence showing that it's safe to do so, a lot of people won't be going out anyway.  If deaths and severe cases spike, people will demand that their governments do something, we'll have another round of shutdowns, etc.  So why not try to get it as close to right the first time as possible.

[cramx3]

I think if things start opening up without evidence showing that it's safe to do so, a lot of people won't be going out anyway. 

It's going to be hard to prove it's safe to open up.  But I agree, even if we show it's safe, people aren't going to be flocking out anyway.  Lots will, but also many won't because we've learned from this, you don't need to go out all the time.  At work they said for everyone to expect to be working from home throughout the summer, and honestly, I think a lot of people will be told to not just go back at all (Not laid off, but WFH) because this all showed a lot of people don't need to be out on the roads and using public transportation to do a job they can do from home.  Society is going to change from this.

[The Walrus]

I didn't say you were I wasn't replying to anyone specifically

(also we've already fucked up getting it right the first time tbh)

@emtee below: brudda

[emtee]

At some point you have to shit or get off the pot. It is not callous to say that at some point the economic ramifications of being shut down will outweigh the consequences from death. This isn't a video game where we can just lock every person inside and wait for the 'right solution' to be found. This is real life and we all just have to do our best for ourselves and everyone around us. At some point, everyone's gonna hit their last straw, whether it's when they run out of money or their power is shut off or worse. Not everybody can sit inside for weeks on end, not everybody can afford to stock up food for weeks, not everyone can work from home. People have to go to work through this, even if it's bad. (I see in Illinois that the Ameren company will not shut off power until the first of May; well, that day is rapidly approaching and we're still no closer to getting out of the woods.)

It's a bad situation all around.

(And on a somewhat related note, I keep seeing people trying to organize 'hunts' and outdoor games for their kids during this whole thing, and mayors and governors telling people to go to parks. I've seen stories in Illinois of officials making games out of trying to go to as many parks as possible to keep people busy and I'm thinking... that is the dumbest thing you can do. Boohoo, people are bored, I know, let's go send everybody to mingle at parks and get all the kids to play together, 'cause I guess in those situations nobody will get sick?)

(EDIT: this is not in response to anybody specifically, just kind of spewing my thoughts... frustrated)

Your first paragraph is spot-on and I have written basically the same thing.

[bosk1]

At some point you have to shit or get off the pot. It is not callous to say that at some point the economic ramifications of being shut down will outweigh the consequences from death. This isn't a video game where we can just lock every person inside and wait for the 'right solution' to be found. This is real life and we all just have to do our best for ourselves and everyone around us. At some point, everyone's gonna hit their last straw, whether it's when they run out of money or their power is shut off or worse. Not everybody can sit inside for weeks on end, not everybody can afford to stock up food for weeks, not everyone can work from home. People have to go to work through this, even if it's bad. (I see in Illinois that the Ameren company will not shut off power until the first of May; well, that day is rapidly approaching and we're still no closer to getting out of the woods.)

It's a bad situation all around.

This sums it up beautifully.  (and I know emtee has said similar things)

I read earlier this morning that most Americans support the stay at home measures. 

I would modify that to say that "most Americans that were polled support it."  But I feel pretty safe in guessing that most (or if not most, at least a VERY significant portion) Americans cannot afford to do so for much longer.  And as I've been saying since the beginning, once those folks decide they have had "enough," I fear what we will see.  Things could turn VERY ugly VERY quickly.

EDIT:  And don't get me wrong--I'm not really arguing against what you are saying.  Not at all.  I'm just pointing out that this is all, just...complicated and...well, as Katt said, just bad all around.  It isn't just the virus.  There are other factors that have me more worried than what the virus itself will do.

[Grappler]

how would you guys feel if it turns out you've had it, asymptomatically?   I think I would be a little freaked out, but honestly, kind of relieved. 

I hope I had it and a small part of me believes I did with how bad my cold symptoms were for so long in the beginning of February and through March. 

I would be hesitant to equate a bad cold to COVID-19.  I guess it depends on your symptoms - this virus seems to have a few very specific symptoms (fever, body aches, breathing issues, severe fatigue). 

We had a cold that my family just couldn't shake and were all passing it back and forth for a month.  My kids usually get mild fevers with cold viruses, but my wife and I rarely do.  So I feel comfortable saying that we've just had bad colds in February, since none of us had the COVID symptoms at all.

[The Walrus]

I'll be honest, I actually am more concerned about civil unrest rising from anxiety over economic fallout than I am the virus. It really does not take much to unveil a first world society's frailty and see how people act when things get real. Look at how fast people turned into animals over toilet paper and hand sanitizer. If that was the trial run for a real plague, we (collectively, as Americans, at least) effectively botched the dress rehearsal.

[emtee]

I agree. It's not immanent but all the critical ingredients are there. Stress, panic, uncertainty, hopelessness, unemployment, and potentially, hunger. It wouldn't take much for this to blow up into something, for lack of a better word, catastrophic.

[Cool Chris]

There is going to be a clear divide, if it doesn't exist already' between the essential and stay-at-home worker, and the non-essential and gotta work on location worker. With all the people making decisions being "essential" I hope it doesn't get too one-sided.

Regarding people having their power shut off or whatever, I believe many municipalities are taking steps to prevent such things from happening

[Stadler]

Not snark, but cynicism:  we can't even agree on basic, uncontroverted points, how can we expect there to be anything more than a plurality on when it's "safe" to open up?   If you don't think we should have closed to begin with, you're already there.  Then of course, there are those that already feel it's safe, but don't have the courage to say so.

This I think is going to be one of those cases where our elected officials have to make the best decision they can based on their information, their priorities and their promises, and the electorate will be able to weigh in their agreement or dissent at the ballot box.

[Harmony]

I agree that we cannot discount the "pressure cooker" scenario.  Honestly I think part of the problem is that there are so many cooks in the kitchen, so to speak.  I understand completely the desire to leave the opening up of states to the states.  But as has been said, the virus doesn't pay attention to state/county/city lines.  I wonder if having an open-up plan that was clear and concise across the US wouldn't be more beneficial.  Once a local community has no ICU admissions from COVID for a period of time, then step 1 open.  If this trend continues for another set period of time, step 2 open, and so on.  The lack of uniformity could be adding to the stress/pressure.  And what I think is going to happen is that states that open too fast and turn into hotspots are going to lead to travel bans from those areas into other areas and then people are really going to lose their shit because this will change week to week if not day to day.  I hope I'm wrong.

[cramx3]

how would you guys feel if it turns out you've had it, asymptomatically?   I think I would be a little freaked out, but honestly, kind of relieved. 

I hope I had it and a small part of me believes I did with how bad my cold symptoms were for so long in the beginning of February and through March. 

I would be hesitant to equate a bad cold to COVID-19.  I guess it depends on your symptoms - this virus seems to have a few very specific symptoms (fever, body aches, breathing issues, severe fatigue). 

We had a cold that my family just couldn't shake and were all passing it back and forth for a month.  My kids usually get mild fevers with cold viruses, but my wife and I rarely do.  So I feel comfortable saying that we've just had bad colds in February, since none of us had the COVID symptoms at all.

I'm a bit hesitant to say it for sure, but I live near the hotbed of this mess, went to many concerts to start the year as well.  Plus it wasn't just a bad cold, extreme amounts of mucus for two weeks which I've never experienced before and extreme fatigue that I even was talking about in the exercise thread.  For a month I couldn't bike for more than 10 minutes without being out of breathe and feeling terrible.  I could hardly do my job without feeling exhausted as well.  Most of it at the time just felt like a cold because back then, everyone was under the assumption you needed a fever to be infected.  You don't need to have any symptoms to be infected in reality.  Who knows.

[Grappler]

how would you guys feel if it turns out you've had it, asymptomatically?   I think I would be a little freaked out, but honestly, kind of relieved. 

I hope I had it and a small part of me believes I did with how bad my cold symptoms were for so long in the beginning of February and through March. 

I would be hesitant to equate a bad cold to COVID-19.  I guess it depends on your symptoms - this virus seems to have a few very specific symptoms (fever, body aches, breathing issues, severe fatigue). 

We had a cold that my family just couldn't shake and were all passing it back and forth for a month.  My kids usually get mild fevers with cold viruses, but my wife and I rarely do.  So I feel comfortable saying that we've just had bad colds in February, since none of us had the COVID symptoms at all.

I'm a bit hesitant to say it for sure, but I live near the hotbed of this mess, went to many concerts to start the year as well.  Plus it wasn't just a bad cold, extreme amounts of mucus for two weeks which I've never experienced before and extreme fatigue that I even was talking about in the exercise thread.  For a month I couldn't bike for more than 10 minutes without being out of breathe and feeling terrible.  I could hardly do my job without feeling exhausted as well.  Most of it at the time just felt like a cold because back then, everyone was under the assumption you needed a fever to be infected.  You don't need to have any symptoms to be infected in reality.  Who knows.

Ah yeah, based on that I'd say that it's definitely possible that you might have had it.  The stuff I've read from some of the metal musicians that have had it said very similar things, mainly the fatigue (being so wiped out and needing to lay down and rest just from walking out to their car in the garage). 

[Cool Chris]

But as has been said, the virus doesn't pay attention to state/county/city lines. 

In theory yes, but different states/counties/cities are going to have different levels of ingress/egress than others. My wife's friends in NM are all touting their low infection numbers. It's not because they are doing anything better than NYC, it's because no one travels to NM. A state/local government is going to have a better handle on the situation on the ground. I doubt Trump could find NM on a map.

[Adami]

But as has been said, the virus doesn't pay attention to state/county/city lines. 

In theory yes, but different states/counties/cities are going to have different levels of ingress/egress than others. My wife's friends in NM are all touting their low infection numbers. It's not because they are doing anything better than NYC, it's because no one travels to NM. A state/local government is going to have a better handle on the situation on the ground. I doubt Trump could find NM on a map.

I dunno man, I wouldn't discount no one going to NM. 

[ErHaO]

I can only really talk from the perspective of my own country and thankfully we have a low national debt and have effective and accessible social safety nets. We will be able to sustain them for a good while. From this perspective, keeping the lockdown in place to save lives is a reasonable and conceivable goal. But I recognise this is not the situation in many other places.

Looking at the unemployment rates in the US and other nations skyrocketing, while the world economy plunges is extremely worrying, I agree. And I agree at some point you have to wonder what does more damage. And yes, the damage it is doing to society as a whole, globally, is also major. For example, one of my Dutch friends was told to "fuck off" to his own country (the Netherlands) by different Belgians on seperate occasions a while ago. And I am not going to pretend there are no Dutch people doing that to Belgians either. People are going mad all around.

But the fact still is we don't know what happens if we let the floodgates loose so to speak. Nobody has kept society going without drastic measurements after an initial outbreak. As I stated last page, those comorbidities found in critical patients are very common, to the degree many people with obesity consider themselves normal. In the US we are talking like 40% of the adults, but in any comparable first world country these illnesses are almost normalised.

A terrible situation all around and I hope everyone will be able to find solutions. Perhaps/hopefully a gradual return to activities, along with monitoring cases, will allow for peoples livelyhoods to return while the hospitals aren't getting flooded.

[Harmony]

But as has been said, the virus doesn't pay attention to state/county/city lines. 

In theory yes, but different states/counties/cities are going to have different levels of ingress/egress than others. My wife's friends in NM are all touting their low infection numbers. It's not because they are doing anything better than NYC, it's because no one travels to NM. A state/local government is going to have a better handle on the situation on the ground. I doubt Trump could find NM on a map.

Yes, and what I posted accounted for that very thing.  Various localities in NM have zero ICU admissions then they are free to be on the plan towards being open.  If suddenly they have an upswing in ICU admissions for COVID, then they restrict again.  It isn't just a state.  It's local areas.  The problem is that people move in and out of rural areas and cities.  So from day to day, this could change but at least everyone is operating under the same set of criteria.

[Indiscipline]

Some good news, for a change:

Today in Italy, for the first time, healed cases are superior to the new cases. It may be irrelevant, but after two months of constant dreadful evening bulletins, it means a lot. 

On a more personal level - but it may be interesting for those who work in the performing arts (not essential, can't work from home, depending on large gatherings) - my company is being contacted by a couple of theatres and regional administrations which had obviously suspended our contracts; they're telling us to free dates and to send new pre-contracts between June and September because the Ministry of Culture seems to have a - still in the works - blueprint for re-opening some venues, as long as attendance is halved (according to new safety distances between seats) and shows are doubled after a sanitation interval. I doubt it's total bullcrap, because we are already talking miles, days, and money.

We are all facing huge problems now and in the coming years, I personally can use even the tiniest speck of positive thinking.

[lordxizor]

Saw something earlier that 88% of Covid patients that are put on ventilators are dying (too lazy to track down the article). Maybe ventilators aren't the right treatment? Or I suppose maybe there's just no hope for them in the first place because they're too far gone. It really does seem that there's still no known way to effectively treat the really sick patients.

[Harmony]

ECMO stats are even worse.  The problem is that this disease hangs on a long time.  The longer someone is on a vent, the less likely they will recover.

And yes, I heard the good news about Italy.  That gives hope.

[Cool Chris]

The problem is that people move in and out of rural areas and cities.  So from day to day, this could change but at least everyone is operating under the same set of criteria.

Correct, even ghost towns are not going to have zero ingress over a period of time. I think I read your post wrong. Yes there should be a standard criteria, and that should be administered at the local level.

.... the Ministry of Culture seems to have a - still in the works - blueprint for re-opening some venues...

That's an actual position?

[MirrorMask]

Even John Petrucci finds a moment to remember us in Italy 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=g6SbyxXsinw&feature=emb_logo

[Indiscipline]

.... the Ministry of Culture seems to have a - still in the works - blueprint for re-opening some venues...

That's an actual position?

Grossly translating it would be Ministry of Culture, Sports, and Showbusiness.

That's our main national resource, even if sometimes we don't treat it as such.

[lordxizor]

More than 21% of New York City residents tested for antibodies tested positive.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-than-21-of-new-york-city-residents-tested-for-coronavirus-antibodies-were-positive-says-gov-cuomo-2020-04-23?mod=home-page

Again, I think this shows that this has been spreading far longer than previously thought and that the number of cases has been vastly undercounted. Or that the testing is completely unreliable.

[Harmony]

More than 21% of New York City residents tested for antibodies tested positive.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-than-21-of-new-york-city-residents-tested-for-coronavirus-antibodies-were-positive-says-gov-cuomo-2020-04-23?mod=home-page

Again, I think this shows that this has been spreading far longer than previously thought and that the number of cases has been vastly undercounted. Or that the testing is completely unreliable.

If I were a betting woman, I'd say the former more than the latter.  (There are always potential false positives and false negatives in testing).  I am definitely in favor of ramping up antibody testing in a YUGE way.  However, we still don't know how long a person may have antibodies after exposure and if that actually conveys protection against reinfection.

[lordxizor]

More than 21% of New York City residents tested for antibodies tested positive.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-than-21-of-new-york-city-residents-tested-for-coronavirus-antibodies-were-positive-says-gov-cuomo-2020-04-23?mod=home-page

Again, I think this shows that this has been spreading far longer than previously thought and that the number of cases has been vastly undercounted. Or that the testing is completely unreliable.

If I were a betting woman, I'd say the former more than the latter.  (There are always potential false positives and false negatives in testing).  I am definitely in favor of ramping up antibody testing in a YUGE way.  However, we still don't know how long a person may have antibodies after exposure and if that actually conveys protection against reinfection.

I hope it's the former, though like you said testing isn't going to be 100% accurate. If that 20% rate carries over all of NYC, that means about 1.6 million people have had it in NYC alone. Which is a little scary but also quite positive in that the severe case and death rate is quite a bit lower than is being widely reported (which I've been saying for weeks).

[cramx3]

More than 21% of New York City residents tested for antibodies tested positive.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-than-21-of-new-york-city-residents-tested-for-coronavirus-antibodies-were-positive-says-gov-cuomo-2020-04-23?mod=home-page

Again, I think this shows that this has been spreading far longer than previously thought and that the number of cases has been vastly undercounted. Or that the testing is completely unreliable.

If I were a betting woman, I'd say the former more than the latter.  (There are always potential false positives and false negatives in testing).  I am definitely in favor of ramping up antibody testing in a YUGE way.  However, we still don't know how long a person may have antibodies after exposure and if that actually conveys protection against reinfection.

I hope it's the former, though like you said testing isn't going to be 100% accurate. If that 20% rate carries over all of NYC, that means about 1.6 million people have had it in NYC alone. Which is a little scary but also quite positive in that the severe case and death rate is quite a bit lower than is being widely reported (which I've been saying for weeks).

Im with both of you on the former.  More and more evidence is coming out about this virus being here before we realized.

[Stadler]

.... the Ministry of Culture seems to have a - still in the works - blueprint for re-opening some venues...

That's an actual position?

Grossly translating it would be Ministry of Culture, Sports, and Showbusiness.

That's our main national resource, even if sometimes we don't treat it as such.

Dude, sign me up for that job.  Where is that?  Italy?  "Stadler" is Italian, I promise. 

[ErHaO]

More than 21% of New York City residents tested for antibodies tested positive.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-than-21-of-new-york-city-residents-tested-for-coronavirus-antibodies-were-positive-says-gov-cuomo-2020-04-23?mod=home-page

Again, I think this shows that this has been spreading far longer than previously thought and that the number of cases has been vastly undercounted. Or that the testing is completely unreliable.

That is some good news. I am not involved myself, but I am hearing corona antibody tests are specific (using ELISA, I think NY does that?), so the cases confirmed are likely true cases. In the UK, for example, they report sensitivity issues, but any false negative would not detract from the numbers reported.

As far as I am aware there has been little validation in regards to what the data means beyond that someone has been infected. For example, at what concentration of antibodies specific to corona is a person expected to be immune?

For the record, I am involved in viral molecular diagnostics (HPV in my case) and some of my colleagues are doing these techniques, I myself have done antibody testing in the past, so I do have some insight in the technical processes of these tests.



On a sidenote, I do not necessarily agree with the "far longer" (emphasis on far, it is not unlikely the virus was earlier than reported) part though. If the virus does, say spread 3 times from one patient, things can increase exponentially very quickly over a matter of a few weeks of less, depending on the highly variable incubation time.

[hunnus2000]

I thought I had read that some are saying the virus could have been in the US as early as September.

My wife and I both came down with something around late August. We had fever, aches and fatigue. I mean it felt like somebody had flattened us with a baseball bat. I never had shortness of breath but who-doggy, that virus was mean.

It makes me wonder......

[ErHaO]

I thought I had read that some are saying the virus could have been in the US as early as September.

My wife and I both came down with something around late August. We had fever, aches and fatigue. I mean it felt like somebody had flattened us with a baseball bat. I never had shortness of breath but who-doggy, that virus was mean.

It makes me wonder......

That would be interesting. It is a possibility that a pandemic strain/variant arrived later through mutations. The road of evolution of a virus is a long one and animals like our beloved cats and dogs can carry it as well.

But from what I gather the wave of hospitals flooding can be traced back chronically fairly well (though who knows what China was doing, given ln their track record of silencing matters). Initially over here they were able to track the virus due to small mutations (they could see if the patient got it in Italy or somewhere else, for example).

Still, the flu is common but can randomly hit very hard. I went to the doctor a couple of years back because I thought it was dying and she nearly rolled her eyes, said it was flu and sent me home  Apparently because many people had the same thought as me. Coughed up blood for like a week.

[Orbert]

Coughing up blood is some serious shit.  People do die from the flu.  I'm glad you can laugh about it now, but if it were me, I probably would've been pissed.

"Don't roll your eyes at me, I'm dying here!"
"It's the flu, go home!"

[cramx3]

I'm not familiar with people coughing blood from the flu, but that sounds really serious and definitely not a rolling of the eyes matter IMO.

[ErHaO]

Coughing up blood is some serious shit.  People do die from the flu.  I'm glad you can laugh about it now, but if it were me, I probably would've been pissed.

"Don't roll your eyes at me, I'm dying here!"
"It's the flu, go home!"

Oh, I was pissed back then for sure, but I can now laugh at just how absurd that stand in doctor was (my own doctor, well, had the flu) and my housemate had a similar experience with the same doctor. I believe he filed a complaint even. But in her defense she did do some checkups, she listened to my lungs and did some measurements and there was no reason to believe there was something significantly wrong there. Presumably it was some minor wound somewhere in my respiratory tract that kept opening up. It was not a lot of blood, but still scary as hell (which is why I obviously went).

I always have bad luck with temporary replacement doctors. In fact, a few weeks back when I was ill, based on the symptoms the medical center requested me to come for a couple of tests. And when I was there, the doctor actually berated me for coming with corona-like symptoms! Then, a day later, they requested me to come again… And when I was there, they did the same tests. But in their defense, it was probably chaos. A couple of my friends/singing partners are doctors (internist and general practicioners), and their workload is most certainly very high now.

[Orbert]

Well, if it's only a little blood...

Still, that's scary.  I'm glad it was just a bad flu.


In other news, the Governor of Illinois has just extended the official lockdown through the end of May.  He issued a statement earlier, mentioned that opening things up too soon is a greater danger than just sitting tight.  Yeah, it's a pain, but we're going another month, minimum.  I agree with him.  I know some people are climbing the walls at this point.  I feel sorry for them, but I'm not among them, so for now I'm just gonna consider myself lucky that I haven't been impacted any worse.