Coronavirus

[Stadler]

I don't disagree with this statement.  But here's the "but" - taking action to solve the issues for the 'uninfected' people will increase the number of infected (and by extension, dead).  So the tipping point isn't an absolute, it's a sliding scale.  800k confirmed cases in US/Canada; 23M unemployed.  Let's guess that the actual cases are on a 1:10 ratio, so there's really 8M  cases.  Without all the lockdown/shelter in place measures, how many cases would we have?  Double that?  Triple?  More?  How much economic impact would that produce in-and-of-itself?  There are far too many variables at play to boil it down to the raw comparison of the number of uninfected-but-impacted vs infected/dead.

Which is fair, but I think that "too many variables" happens across the board.  I don't know that the multiplier is 2x or 3x.  Maybe it's 5x, maybe it's 0.5x.   We're not arguing here, but I think that generally, the narrative is going along a particular line and that line makes a lot of assumptions.  The nightly news last night (might have been Saturday) led with the tagline "COVID-19 deaths soar past 100,000".  No context, no nothing, just absolute fear about a number that most of us would consider "big" absent any other comparison or relativity.    Contrast that with the Allies lost 200,000 roughly in the battle of Normandy, roughly a month.  Knowingly, with foresight, and with the "math" completed and accepted that it was a "fair trade" (in quotes because that's a subjective term; I mean someone did the math, nothing more than that) for the CHANCE to overcome potentially being led by a government and/or a leader we collectively judged as unacceptable.   

Oh, for cryin out loud, Bill!! Must you analytically over-analyze everything!?!?    It wasn't meant as a perfect 1:1 analogous comparison.  You got/get the gist of what the statement is trying to make.

I'm sorry to be the buzzkill, but that was the point entirely: what WAS the statement?  It was a faulty analogy; the only statement at that point is "fuck whatever it actually right, or best for the most people, or is the majority choice in the situation, just do it my way!"  That analogy doesn't teach anything profound or illuminating; the "statement" pushes a narrative.

You note I'm "over-analyzing"; I would offer that I'm just saying analyze it something more than 'zero'.   I hardly consider that "over-analyzing", and if it is, maybe we need a little more of that.

Here's another cute analogy: "The curve is flattening, but we've got to keep the restrictions on!" = "The steak is cooked, but we've got to keep the meat on the grill!"

[King Postwhore]

[jingle.boy]

Here's another cute analogy: "The curve is flattening, but we've got to keep the restrictions on!" = "The steak is cooked, but we've got to keep the meat on the grill!"

As long as you turn the gas/heat off, absolutely.  A good chef always let's their meat rest before serving it.

But it's a flawed analogy because... aww, fuckit.  Actually I'll sum it up like this.

COVID desired outcome - fewer cases; healthy economy.  Action... stay the course, keep reducing cases; don't risk a relapse without a plan.
Skydiving desired outcome - land safely; remain alive.  Action ... stay the course, keep the fucking parachute on; don't accelerate to the ground.
BBQ desired outcome - tasty food.  Action.. take that meat off the grill while it's still got some red/pink on it.

[Lethean]

Agree with jingle's last couple posts.  And especially the "without a plan."  Just going back to normal without a plan is just going to cause the curve to unflatten.

[Stadler]

Here's another cute analogy: "The curve is flattening, but we've got to keep the restrictions on!" = "The steak is cooked, but we've got to keep the meat on the grill!"

As long as you turn the gas/heat off, absolutely.  A good chef always let's their meat rest before serving it.

But it's a flawed analogy because... aww, fuckit.  Actually I'll sum it up like this.

COVID desired outcome - fewer cases; healthy economy.  Action... stay the course, keep reducing cases; don't risk a relapse without a plan.
Skydiving desired outcome - land safely; remain alive.  Action ... stay the course, keep the fucking parachute on; don't accelerate to the ground.
BBQ desired outcome - tasty food.  Action.. take that meat off the grill while it's still got some red/pink on it.

The point wasn't the analogy itself.  You're right it's flawed; glaringly so. BOTH are.  That's the point.   

I think the real issue here is that there's multiple courses of action, based in large part on one's prioritization of the various variables.  As is increasingly the case in America (and I say that only because I can only speak for America with any confidence) is that there is a LOT of judgment in media and elsewhere about how various people prioritize.  I don't know if it's a function of social media or what, but most of the problems I see stem from an abiding intolerance to the fact that other people may prioritize things differently.  We've turned into a black and white, twitter-quip society, where there is no space, no INTEREST in "analyzing".  I don't mean to be critical of you, Chad, so please take this in the spirit it's intended (the underlying point) not as a dig at you, but you criticized me for "over-analyzing", and really, "over-analyzing" was in fact, just SOME analysis to begin with.  The counter argument implied that the way to take that was on it's face, with NO analysis.  I think that's hurting us, frankly.

I care about life.  I am devoutly anti-death penalty, and do not believe any one person has the moral right to knowingly and with intent extinguish another's life.   I make personal rationalizations for self-defense and warfare, but I am up front with the notion that they are rationalizations.  Having said that, I do not believe "one death is too many" is an applicable standard for a planet of 7.3 billion people.   I agree with the restrictions put into place, and I have largely done my part to do what is asked of me (I say "largely" to be humble; I'm not sure I've done ANYTHING that knowingly and meaningfully violates the protocols).   What I don't like is the derision that seems to follow when someone suggests that perhaps there was a different, less restrictive way of going about this.

COVID-19 is wildly different than flu or car-driving, that's obvious.  But one thing that is similar (and what I think, deep down, people like Dr. Phil were going for) is that in ALL cases of "harm", a calculus is done.  Maybe not by each of us individually, but it IS done.  Given no other variables, and no other concerns, we COULD reduce flu deaths and car accident deaths to zero.  We COULD.  Make every key and starter require a breath test, and confirmation by another person, who will drive with you at all times to make sure you're competent for the duration of the journey.  Limit top speeds to 25 miles per hour at all times, and maintain a cushion of at least 35 feet from all other vehicles at all times (to be enforced by a 125bB claxon warning that sounds when that perimeter is breached).   You get the point; someone somewhere did a calculus that this is not necessary, and that "one death is too many" is not the standard we will use.  That should be the debate here, but it's not.  If there are dissenting views, they seemingly are immediately dispensed with on ad hominem grounds.  That's disappointing to someone who sees the value of analysis as a way of making sure that the needs of the entire population is being met, not just the loudest, best armed, or most politically correct.

[TAC]

We could reduce car accidents by keeping everyone home. I haven’t seen or heard of an accident in 3 weeks.

[Stadler]

Hey, don't know if this is the right spot or not, but... anyone take this opportunity to (over-)analyze (sorry Chad, couldn't resist!) their lives and realize what things they could or could not do without?

There is far more I realize that I can do without than otherwise, but...

I can do without:
- crappy food; I've become much too tolerant in what I accept as "good food", especially when eating out;
- sports.   Talk to me when football season is on, but other than Sunday NASCAR (which is less about the race itself than the notion that "it's Sunday, have a drink, watch the race, and relax before work tomorrow") I miss zero sport.
- Cable news.  I've had to turn off the cable news entirely.  I don't have a TV on anymore, and instead play music during the day. I miss NOTHING about it.  I am regressing to my childhood; I put on the local news at 5:00 like my dad did, and I'll (occasionally) put on the news at 10:00 or 11:00 for the weather.  I'm more apt to tape it and fast-forward to Kyle Hanrahan or Rachel Frank (our local weatherpeople) and delete the rest.   
- Other people.  I've gone out about four times now since the start of the lockdown and people are just so fucking inconsiderate it makes me want to scream. I'm at Home Depot to get wire (computer cable I ran so I can relocate my router/modem) and I'm standing there, mask on, gloves on, and some douchebag walks up and stands like 2 feet from me perusing the wire.  In my head I'm screaming "SOCIAL DISTANCING, MOTHERFUCKER!" (though I just walked to the end of the aisle to look at other things).  People like that are why we have this problem to begin with.   I want to get a stamp that says "Tend Your Own Fucking Garden" and stamp them on the forehead, but I don't want to risk jail, and of course, they DO have the right to prioritize their safety like the rest of us.

Things I can't do without:
- my kids/family.  I've not gotten bored or annoyed by them once; the dogs are a different story, but we've found ways to bond in these trying times (my daughter bought a poster with 100 movies "you must see" and we're pulling a random number each night and watching that movie.  We're in about 10 films so far, though we haven't really been "tested"yet. 
- an occasional night out with the boys.  It's recharging and relaxing to just go and sit and have a beer with the people I've known for the entirety of my adult life.  No explaining necessary, no need for backstory, they were there for most of it, and it's refreshing to just experience human company with little if any judgment or anxiety.
- good food; I take comfort in the notion of a well-cooked, well-thought out meal.  I don't get them much because I suck as a cook, but if and when we do get back out there, I'm going to be more selective of my eating, that's for sure.
- a haircut.  My hair - while still not long, is longer than it's been in 20 years, and it's annnoying AF.  It's too long to be stylish, but not long enough to be stylish, so I'm in that in-between state where I look like that creepy guy with the basement lab in every episode of The Blacklist.
- music.  Nuff said.

[Cool Chris]

Do without:

* I have gradually tuned out sports over the past 15+ years but this does solidify for me how little interest it holds for me. I miss the Masters, because it is awesome and a cool way to mark the arrival of Spring. But otherwise I haven't cared about or missed anything.

* Other people as well, though not because they can be jerks. I just don't need that much human interaction.

* My wife teaching from home while I am home as well. She is not tech savvy at all and I have to answer some damn question every half an hour about her Google Classroom or something.

* Working. I don't want it, and I don't like it. Unfortunately, I need it.

[ProfessorPeart]

Got my stimulus check. Not sure how, since all the articles I read essentially said I wouldn't get mine until late June, early July.

Anyway, I guess Illinois is going to announce the shutdown of all schools for the rest of the academic year today. Not a surprise, really. Still fighting with my sons district over his situation. Thankfully, his psychiatrist has been strong arming them and they are finally starting to buckle and grant provisions for his autisim/ADHD.

We'll get through it, and it's not like we're just sitting on our hands waiting for something to change, but as a general observation, my step-son is really suffering from this.  His anxiety is steadily growing, his focus is steadily decreasing...   hard to watch.

My son's psychiatrist got him an emergency 504 to get him through this e-learning mess. All of a sudden, the principal and teachers are talking to my wife and giving all of these suggestions and alternatives to help get him through this.

Told ya she (the psychiatrist) would kick some butts. She sent them a detailed history of his care and outlined recent issues outside of the whole Covid thing. Finally starting to make some headway.

[jingle.boy]

That's awesome Professor.

To Bill's longer post, it's all good pal.  I'm totally cool with you being you - as frustrating as it is sometimes! 

Can't live without.
Fresh air and sunshine.  I'm so grateful we have property, and can get out side just for the sake of being outside (weather permitting).
Wife and kids.  That's a given
Working out.  It's a passion for me at the moment, keeps my mind sane
DTF.  Seriously, virtually (hah, pun intended) all of my best friends are here.
Music.  Been the one constant good thing in my life since I was 14.

Can live without.
One-topic news cycle.  Seriously, is there no other news going on in the world.
Social Media as a news outlet.  FB has it's benefits, but not as a news outlet.  Twitter I still can't figure out what it's good for.  Instagram even less so.

[Orbert]

Our daughter goes to college in Virginia, but in January she went to Japan for part of her program, then came back in March when things started shutting down and they brought all the students back.  In January, we flew down there so see her before she went to Japan, and we drove her car back up here, so it wouldn't be sitting in the parking lot for three months.  I personally didn't see the problem leaving it there, but my wife seemed to feel that something could happen to it.  Whatever.  The original plan was for her to come here from Japan, visit a while, then drive her car back to Virginia.  But when they brought the students "home", she went back to Virginia because that's where she flew out from.

So she's been there in Virginia with no car, which hasn't really been a problem since they're locked down there as well.  But eventually she'll need to get out and about, plus my wife misses her, so this Saturday she's flying here to visit.  She'll stay for six weeks, then she and my wife will drive the car back down to Virginia (two-day girls' road trip, yay) and a day after that, my wife will fly back.

I really don't think they understand the concept of a quarrantine, and I have been unsuccessful at conveying it to them.  She's been back for a month now and shows no symptoms.  Great.  That doesn't mean she won't pick it up on the plane, or anywhere in between there and here.  And with the new studies showing how many people can be asymptomatic carriers, there's now the very real possibility that she's a carrier and will come here and infect us all.

I guess my point is that I thought the latest testing results were a good thing overall, but that's based on people following quarrantine.  Now I'm scared again, but I guess I'll just wash my hands a lot while she's here, because she's my daughter and she's coming home.  Wish me luck.

[hunnus2000]

Our daughter goes to college in Virginia, but in January she went to Japan for part of her program, then came back in March when things started shutting down and they brought all the students back.  In January, we flew down there so see her before she went to Japan, and we drove her car back up here, so it wouldn't be sitting in the parking lot for three months.  I personally didn't see the problem leaving it there, but my wife seemed to feel that something could happen to it.  Whatever.  The original plan was for her to come here from Japan, visit a while, then drive her car back to Virginia.  But when they brought the students "home", she went back to Virginia because that's where she flew out from.

So she's been there in Virginia with no car, which hasn't really been a problem since they're locked down there as well.  But eventually she'll need to get out and about, plus my wife misses her, so this Saturday she's flying here to visit.  She'll stay for six weeks, then she and my wife will drive the car back down to Virginia (two-day girls' road trip, yay) and a day after that, my wife will fly back.

I really don't think they understand the concept of a quarrantine, and I have been unsuccessful at conveying it to them.  She's been back for a month now and shows no symptoms.  Great.  That doesn't mean she won't pick it up on the plane, or anywhere in between there and here.  And with the new studies showing how many people can be asymptomatic carriers, there's now the very real possibility that she's a carrier and will come here and infect us all.

I guess my point is that I thought the latest testing results were a good thing overall, but that's based on people following quarrantine.  Now I'm scared again, but I guess I'll just wash my hands a lot while she's here, because she's my daughter and she's coming home.  Wish me luck.

I feel ya. My stepson was furloughed a couple of weeks back and wanted to come see us and we flat out said no. Bad idea! He lives in Dallas and he is a higher risk for infection (even asymptomatic) than we are here. In fact, he went for a motorcycle ride with his friends a week ago and I really doubt they followed the socially distancing recommendations. Our main concern is my in-laws who are around 85+ years old.

Good luck brutha!

[TAC]

I would make an exception for a son or daughter.

[mike099]

With Governors planning to phase in reopening, what is your opinion on dining in and possible restrictions? The wife suggested letting dine in resume at 50% of capacity, but no way you could enforce that except on a spot check basis.

[Harmony]

With Governors planning to phase in reopening, what is your opinion on dining in and possible restrictions? The wife suggested letting dine in resume at 50% of capacity, but no way you could enforce that except on a spot check basis.

I think we are all in uncharted territory.  If my state lifted restrictions today, I'd not be chancing going to dine in at a restaurant under any circumstances.  Talk to me mid-May and I might say something different.  But that is the rub.  Everyone is going to have their own comfort level.  I've heard dine-in restaurants will have to enforce the 6 foot social distancing rule.  How does one do that in a bathroom washing at the sink or standing at the urinal?  Who will be cleaning the bathrooms in between each patron?  It will be interesting to see.

Didn't know if anyone caught the story of a "30 something" Ironman athlete who nearly died of COVID-19 in Minnesota?  And those ECMO survival rates I'd never heard before.  Scary AF. 

https://m.startribune.com/minnesota-man-is-an-ironman-covid-19-nearly-killed-him/569761222/?fbclid=IwAR1S0Y2Ovv9TFesDyerTByWU6aVPtJlJA1mlZtQB8ieyYmLr2fgPOz9ZDEM

[Orbert]

I would make an exception for a son or daughter.

Yeah, I love her and would love to see her, too.  I'm making the exception for her, and I'm doing it for my wife, who went ahead and booked everything while I thought we were still discussing it, and who I'm not going to talk out of it anyway.

[soupytwist]

The Countries that took the threat seriously, got the lockdowns in place early, got their medical centres prepared have suffered less.

[emtee]

Covid sucker punched the oil industry. I'll wager none of us ever
see oil at -$37 A barrel again. Tough news for some, like my step-son
who captain's a boat that supplies oil rigs. 5 kids and a new house.
He'll be getting the lay-off call soon.

But as with all such thjngs, others will benefit over the short term.
Losers and winners. It's a roll of the dice of fate right now.

[Elite]

The Countries that took the threat seriously, got the lockdowns in place early, got their medical centres prepared have suffered less.

Yes.

[Stadler]

The Countries that took the threat seriously, got the lockdowns in place early, got their medical centres prepared have suffered less.

Yes.

Is that provable?  Just asking...

[hunnus2000]

The Countries that took the threat seriously, got the lockdowns in place early, got their medical centres prepared have suffered less.

Yes.

Is that provable?  Just asking...

Yes. That information is not hard to find.

[Elite]

Have a go over here:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

---

and probably tons of other places as well

[Dublagent66]

Well, now that oil is going negative, does that mean that glaciers will start going positive? 

[cramx3]

It's a roll of the dice of fate right now.

Definitely feels that way with many things in life right now.

I came into work today, first time in two weeks as work has built up enough to justify a trip to our data center to fix everything.  Before being allowed in the building I got a temperature scan which is a first.  I read at 95F    I guess there's no issue if you are too cold.  Security got a laugh at that.  Nice start to the day, I'm cold blooded.

[Stadler]

The Countries that took the threat seriously, got the lockdowns in place early, got their medical centres prepared have suffered less.

Yes.

Is that provable?  Just asking...

Yes. That information is not hard to find.

AND

Have a go over here:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

---

and probably tons of other places as well

Well, that gives us raw data for cases/deaths.  That doesn't in and of itself "prove" the assertion (I can't say I read every single article on the John's Hopkins page).   Who acted fast?  Did the United States? I'm sure there are many people here and elsewhere not named "Trump" that will tell you our speed and our thoroughness of response has been lackluster.  But even though we're third most populous country, we're only 16th in the world in cases and 14th in the world in deaths (adjusted for population). 

Germany may prove the assertion; Spain, France, and Germany took similar steps on a similar time-line, until Angela Merkel broke from that and took harsher measures; their cases/deaths are 25/22 in the world (adjusted for pop.; same cite as above), whereas Spain and France are 6/4 and 18/6, respectively (adj. for pop.; same cite).   BUT that data is inconclusive; why does France have a disproportionately high number of deaths?  And how are Germany's numbers impacted not by "speed" of response but by the fact that their healthcare capacity is already higher than their neighbors and they are a primary source for the continent's ventilators?

Sweden, Denmark and Norway further cloud the issue.   Denmark and Norway took harsher measures sooner than Sweden, who has relied on a more voluntary program.  They are 32, 33, and 30 in the world in cases (respectively, adj. for pop.).  So that shows a similar rate of spread, refuting the "speed" argument.  However, there is wide disparity on deaths; 10, 20 and 28 (respectively, adj. for pop; same cite as above).   So while Sweden has been more lax, and has more deaths, Denmark and Finland, despite similar responses (and similar cases), do not have a similar mortality rate (Denmark's numbers are double that of Norway, adjusted for population.)

And there's the problem of inconsistent/unreliable data (North Korea, China), as well as the difference in response from more authoritarian governments and less affluent governments.

The data has to guide us. 

EDIT:  It's also necessary to point out this is a snapshot in time and could change, though the U.S. world ranking has been somewhat consistent over the past couple weeks.  With so many variables in play, it's not fair to draw conclusions on the relative worth of those systems by this data alone, but it is interesting to note that the mortality rate (I used death/cases) in Sweden is about double that of the U.S., Denmark's is roughly the same as the U.S. (slightly less) and Norway's is about half.  These are countries that are often cited as potential examples of what the U.S. healthcare system could be. 

[bosk1]

This doesn't go to the point being made above and is separate, but since we're on the topic of data:  It bugs me that recoveries are being underreported.  I mean, I get why.  One reason is probably that, as in most cases, the health case system is (rightly) focusing on those in need, so those who are no longer a concern because they are better are no longer a concern.  Another is that those who stop needing treatment often go back about their lives rather than reporting in that they are "all clear."  But it bugs me in that it is skewing the data.  Those who have been reporting have been doing a decent job of not getting too tied up in the raw data.  But I have seen many who do not know how to process it drawing wrong conclusions.  For instance, the death rate in the U.S. is 37%.  21% worldwide.  But those numbers are several multiples too high because cases aren't registering as "closed."

[Harmony]

Data is a huge problem.  We don't have close to any idea how many people have been infected because testing has been such a shit show.  We might get a better idea when the antibody tests roll out but I've been hearing some rumors in the medical community that these tests may not be all that accurate.  It would be the worst possible thing to tell someone they have antibodies from COVID and that they are "all clear" to go out and about their lives only to find out it was a false positive test. 

[Orbert]

Does having had the virus once (as shown by the presence of the antibodies in your blood) make you immune from now on?  I thought that they still weren't really sure about that.

[Adami]

Does having had the virus once (as shown by the presence of the antibodies in your blood) make you immune from now on?  I thought that they still weren't really sure about that.

I read that, in Korea at least, people are getting it a second time. But I’ve also heard that’s contested.

[Harmony]

Does having had the virus once (as shown by the presence of the antibodies in your blood) make you immune from now on?  I thought that they still weren't really sure about that.

Good question.  And I think we don't know a lot about immunity.  Even if it does make you immune, we don't know for how long.

As to Adami's point about getting the virus twice - that is hotly debated.  It seems that people retain the virus for long periods of time.  So if someone out there is tested a second time and is positive - is that a new case or is it the original case still showing up weeks later?

So much we don't know yet.

[Dublagent66]

Gathering data takes time.  Gathering accurate data takes even more time.  We can't trust the numbers right now because it's just too soon.

Does having had the virus once (as shown by the presence of the antibodies in your blood) make you immune from now on?  I thought that they still weren't really sure about that.

I think it all depends on the person.  I've heard that certain blood types may be immune, but that's just one variable out of many.

[kaos2900]

My question is what has changed to drive opening the economy besides the obvious of getting people back to work? There is no vaccine. There is no proof (to my knowledge) that the curve in the US is flattening.

[Cool Chris]

Nothing, except for the fringe element of society that enjoys giving the middle finger to government got a snake up their ass and saw an opportunity to act on it.

[Luoto]

Finland's R0 index is estimated to be at 1 or under, meaning one infected person infects at most one other person by average. This means Finland has passed the peak of the epidemic wave if prevention measures remain effective.

Our death toll is currently at 141 with about 4000 confirmed cases. It rose by 43 today because previously unreported deaths from eldercare were added retroactively.

[Elite]

Nothing, except for the fringe element of society that enjoys giving the middle finger to government got a snake up their ass and saw an opportunity to act on it.

Yay, let’s act on behalf of those dimwits and fuck everyone else up then.