Poll

Avatar is #1 of all time in both the domestic and global box office. Will Star Wars VII top that?

Yes
61 (81.3%)
No
11 (14.7%)
Only domestically
3 (4%)

Total Members Voted: 74

Author Topic: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?  (Read 53976 times)

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Offline cramx3

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #350 on: January 13, 2016, 02:26:35 PM »
Yeah If I owned the Star Wars name and someone came along and said " Hey, we wanna make six more Star Wars movies. We wanna buy the rights.

Now, you will no longer have any part of it going forward but we will pay you four billion pounds. "

I'd be all :lol " DEAL ".

Well especially if you are old and at an age of retirement.  Hell yea!

Offline Kotowboy

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #351 on: January 13, 2016, 02:28:46 PM »
I wonder if he gets any royalties at all from now on ?

He came up with universe and the characters. You can't buy that.

I expect he gets something from the previous six films. Just not as much as before.

If they outright bought him out then yeah $4bn is pretty cheap.

Offline jingle.boy

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #352 on: January 13, 2016, 02:29:33 PM »
God I wish I'd never posted in this thread so it would just go away from my feed.
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Offline Kotowboy

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #353 on: January 13, 2016, 02:30:29 PM »
And yet here you are.

Did you catch something from king ?

Offline TioJorge

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #354 on: January 13, 2016, 02:37:58 PM »
I am genuinely, honestly interested in why this pisses people off so much.  :lol It's nuts! I mean, it's certainly not the most interesting of subjects, but I'd say this thread is leagues better than the random threads we have popping up now and again that are either to bash bands/movies/games or 'list the worst bands/singers/instrumentals/movies/games' bullshit. Those, in my eyes, truly have little to no merit and even still are valid simply because 'discussionyay'. This actually does have a purpose. It's going to affect future movies, it's going to affect the release of said movies, and it's going to affect the budget of those movies. Granted, by this point it's said and done; we'll be getting the best of the best no matter what. But there is still a point to it and I find it at least something to monitor and see either 'oh wow that didn't go as planned' or 'holy crap it broke another record'. No harm, no foul.

I'm pretty sure no one here is just looking for one movie to just shit on the other and/or are bashing one or the other so...I really struggle to see how this can illicit so much vitriol. Whatevs, bros. To each their own but...damn, have a snickers!

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Offline cramx3

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #355 on: January 13, 2016, 02:39:54 PM »
Agreed, I have way more meaningless/uninteresting threads popping up in my feed than this one.

Offline Zantera

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #356 on: January 13, 2016, 03:24:38 PM »
An interesting side note, I was actually one of few who voted No in the poll, but has kinda gotten more optimistic after seeing the numbers, whereas a lot of other people seemed very sure it would beat Avatar easily in 2-3 weeks already, yet those people are starting to turn now. :P

Offline Kotowboy

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #357 on: January 13, 2016, 03:27:51 PM »
I think everyone could have predicted it's rapid ascent and it will cross $2bn .

After that it'll slow way down.

Offline bosk1

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #358 on: January 13, 2016, 03:48:10 PM »
An interesting side note, I was actually one of few who voted No in the poll, but has kinda gotten more optimistic after seeing the numbers, whereas a lot of other people seemed very sure it would beat Avatar easily in 2-3 weeks already, yet those people are starting to turn now. :P

I actually did not vote at all.  I would have been shocked if it did not beat Avatar in the U.S.  But I have no idea what other markets have been doing and honestly couldn't even make an educated guess. 
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Offline RuRoRul

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #360 on: January 13, 2016, 04:20:41 PM »
An interesting side note, I was actually one of few who voted No in the poll, but has kinda gotten more optimistic after seeing the numbers, whereas a lot of other people seemed very sure it would beat Avatar easily in 2-3 weeks already, yet those people are starting to turn now. :P
I'm one of 3 (and fairly sure I was the only one at the time) who voted that it would be #1 domestic but not #1 worldwide. Looking more and more likely that will turn out to be true  :tup

Some people are interested in box office records and statistics and stuff. Avatar's record is so far ahead that since it was set there hasn't been a single film that ever seemed like it was coming close to it. Star Wars was pretty much the first film to come along that was widely expected to have a chance, so naturally there was some discussion and predictions about whether it would or would not... That's why there's a separate thread about it here, completely separate from the main The Force Awakens thread. It'd be one thing to complain if people were filling that thread with box office numbers while people are trying to discuss the content of the film, but coming to the thread specifically set aside for the numbers discussion to complain that people are discussing it seems pointless.

Offline Kotowboy

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #361 on: January 17, 2016, 12:18:46 PM »
SO...

The Force Awakens only made $25m worldwide this weekend. I think that wraps it up. Everyone and their dog has seen it 5 times already.

It still has to make over 900m to beat Avatar and even at $25m a week - that's another 10 months.

Not gonna happen.

So far - China has bought in $65m in total.

Offline jammindude

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #362 on: January 17, 2016, 12:34:27 PM »
Doesn't Avatar's numbers include a re-release?   I feel like that should be adjusted.   Either that, or TFA should get some sortof re-release as well. 

I'd be curious as to what Avatar's numbers were *just on the initial run*....
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Offline RuRoRul

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #363 on: January 17, 2016, 01:37:19 PM »
SO...

The Force Awakens only made $25m worldwide this weekend. I think that wraps it up. Everyone and their dog has seen it 5 times already.

It still has to make over 900m to beat Avatar and even at $25m a week - that's another 10 months.

Not gonna happen.

So far - China has bought in $65m in total.

Yup looks like it's sealed. My prediction of #1 in North American box office but not #1 Worldwide feels secure now :)

As for re-releases, box office numbers (for example on Box Office Mojo) do include re-releaes and you can usually look at the breakdown of where the numbers came from. For Avatar the only other release I see for it is a "special edition" in 2010, which took $10m domestically compared to the $760m of the original run (I don't see international numbers but I imagine it'd be pretty similar). Personally I don't remember any major re-release of Avatar, though no doubt Chino could fill us in on exactly how many times it has been re-released.

In any case, right now Star Wars TFA is about $900m behind it, and taking out any numbers from later release wouldn't come close to changing that. If Star Wars does get another re-release that makes major money (which personally I find quite unlikely considering Disney's current plan of saturating the market with a stream of Star Wars and Star Wars related films) then it could end up the official highest grossing film. But I think Kotow is right and it's chances of being the highest grossing excluding re-releases are finished. Perhaps it could still pass Titanic for #2 though - particularly in "original run only" gross, as Titanic did make quite a lot on a re-release a few years ago I think...

Offline Kotowboy

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #364 on: January 17, 2016, 01:56:32 PM »
Doesn't Avatar's numbers include a re-release?   I feel like that should be adjusted.   Either that, or TFA should get some sortof re-release as well. 

I'd be curious as to what Avatar's numbers were *just on the initial run*....

Avatar made an additional $33m on the re-release. Not huge numbers.

Offline gmillerdrake

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #365 on: January 17, 2016, 06:08:48 PM »
Doesn't Avatar's numbers include a re-release?   I feel like that should be adjusted.   Either that, or TFA should get some sortof re-release as well. 

I'd be curious as to what Avatar's numbers were *just on the initial run*....

Avatar made an additional $33m on the re-release. Not huge numbers.

this just really re-affirms what a huge deal AVATAR was at the time. I mean, TFA has been ON FIRE and it's still a hair under a billion short.
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Offline TioJorge

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #366 on: January 17, 2016, 06:56:28 PM »
Yeah it's pretty insane how amazingly high Avatar's numbers got.

I'd also like to remind people of how awesomely powerful and all encompassing their media blitz for Avatar was. Now, everyone and their grandmother has heard or seen something of TFA, but that's about it. There's nothing really more than "IT'S HERE! IT'S EVERYWHERE". Avatar had that plus about a billion other things going for the publicity, the numerous media outlets publishing dozens of articles not only about the technology but about Cameron, the movie, the possible sequels, etc. Star Wars has the already established series going for it, but that's a bit of a double edged sword as well; people know what it is, they're aware of what's coming and more or less know the gist by now. There wasn't going to be any massively controversial or left-field surprises here. With Avatar you had (have) the intrigue of a new series, new possibilities, new technologies, new blue people, new plants to smoke, new planets, everything was fresh and exciting and no one had any idea of what to expect except that it was going to to blow the fuckin' lid off of everything awesome.

Remembering on it and realizing how much they capitalized on that in their marketing...man...they killed it. Over and over again. Star Wars was nothing more than a blitz and a tugging on our nostalgia, that really is it. There was nothing remarkable or special about their marketing other than 'it's everywhere', and that gets old pretty quick and then simply becomes a topic of 'yeah, you can't go anywhere without seeing it' instead of actually promoting discussion of 'Oh, did you hear about this new thing today?' like it was with Avatar. Like I said, on one hand...Star Wars didn't need to do that, but Avatar probably gained a lot of newcomers that Star Wars didn't because of that.

Yeah, pretty much over by now. Still, great stuff over the last few weeks.

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Offline BlobVanDam

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #367 on: January 17, 2016, 10:28:49 PM »
I reckon Avatar 2 will break records.


Such as the record for the highest drop off for a sequel. :P
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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #368 on: January 17, 2016, 11:07:28 PM »
Even though Star Wars has a ton of fans, there's always gonna be those people who don't watch a new SW-movie because their opinion is "Eww Star Wars". With Avatar, they managed to catch just about everyone's curiosity, because it was a brand new thing. I don't think Avatar 2 is gonna make more than 1.5 billion at most (probably closer to 1 billion) mainly because people have now seen it, and opinions were mixed. But that initial curiosity and getting even the skeptics to see it once was a big key to the success.

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #369 on: January 18, 2016, 12:01:19 AM »
Even though Star Wars has a ton of fans, there's always gonna be those people who don't watch a new SW-movie because their opinion is "Eww Star Wars". With Avatar, they managed to catch just about everyone's curiosity, because it was a brand new thing. I don't think Avatar 2 is gonna make more than 1.5 billion at most (probably closer to 1 billion) mainly because people have now seen it, and opinions were mixed. But that initial curiosity and getting even the skeptics to see it once was a big key to the success.
Do you think so? I dunno, my instinct says that TFA probably actually reached a wider audience than Avatar, but Avatar somehow did better at getting people like Chino to go and see it 10+ times.

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Offline Kotowboy

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #370 on: January 18, 2016, 05:00:11 AM »
I reckon Avatar 2 will break records.


Such as the record for the highest drop off for a sequel. :P

I'm actually not interested in the sequels but i'll go see them anyway since I love the first one.


Offline Chino

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #371 on: January 18, 2016, 06:24:05 AM »
I wouldn't be surprised if the Avatar sequels collectively made less than the first film.

Offline Kotowboy

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #372 on: January 18, 2016, 06:44:48 AM »
That's still around $1bn each. :p


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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #373 on: January 18, 2016, 06:50:05 AM »
I wouldn't be surprised if the Avatar sequels collectively made less than the first film.

I can see you being right. The 'hype' isn't the same...the technology really hasn't made leaps and bounds, it's been refined but the allure isn't there. I'll go see them but I imagine only once each.
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Offline Chino

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #374 on: January 18, 2016, 07:00:28 AM »
I wouldn't be surprised if the Avatar sequels collectively made less than the first film.

I can see you being right. The 'hype' isn't the same...the technology really hasn't made leaps and bounds, it's been refined but the allure isn't there. I'll go see them but I imagine only once each.

This isn't entirely accurate. There have been three fairly large breakthroughs with the technology since the first movie.

1) The original system's processing power limited the cameras to only being able to track about 25 characters at a time before it'd crash. This has been greatly improved on and I've read that upwards of 100 people can be filmed and tracked simultaneously now. That breakthrough really only effects the time spent in post processing, not so much the viewer's experience.

2) Cameron figured out how to use his motion capturing underwater which will hopefully give us some pretty awesome ocean sequences.

3) Cameron has said the sequels will play at a minimum of 45fps, and he's hoping to get 60fps. That will make the movie all the more pretty.


As for the 'hype', it's not the same for the general population, but Avatards and myself are patiently shitting our pants in excitement for the followups. Now that we've been introduced to the Na'vi and their world, Cameron doesn't have to waste any time on back stories or arch development. The trilogy can start from frame one at full throttle. There's a chance he nails it and gives the world Avatar fever again. I'm going to try my best to not see any previews for the sequels. I knew absolutely nothing about the first movie before seeing it. I didn't even know the people were blue. I had read articles over the years prior talking about the new technology Cameron was using, and that alone was enough for me to want to see it. I never expected to get sucked into it like I did.

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #375 on: January 18, 2016, 07:12:41 AM »
Pretty sure gmillerdrake was referring to the 3D technology that actually affects the viewing experience, so points 1 and 2 don't matter. And they're not leaps and bounds anyway, those are standard evolutions of technology, just as any movie benefits from as time progresses. It may take more time and money, but the end result is the same regardless of how they get there. I could name bigger technological leaps for movies throughout history that you wouldn't have heard of, because it's just a part of improving film making, not something the average viewer cares about or notices.

Concerning 3, the Hobbit films were all shot in 48fps, and people reacted very negatively to it. It's not a new thing, and probably not a positive selling point. People have a mental association with the 24fps look as being more film-like.
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Offline Chino

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #376 on: January 18, 2016, 07:27:13 AM »
Concerning 3, the Hobbit films were all shot in 48fps, and people reacted very negatively to it. It's not a new thing, and probably not a positive selling point. People have a mental association with the 24fps look as being more film-like.

From what I understand, that was only with the 3D versions of the film. The 2D 48fps looked stunning and was well received. Cameron has said he's figured out how to make 48fps work with 3D. Also, a big complaint about the hobbit was that it made everything look fake and not believable. Cameron would never allow something like that on the big screen. I'm confident he'll do it just fine.

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #377 on: January 18, 2016, 07:38:09 AM »
Cameron would never allow something like that on the big screen.

Errrrr I'm just going to leave that one alone......


48fps is 48fps. There's no difference in the native exposure time between the 2D and 3D versions, since they're derived from the same element, the only difference at all is one is mono and one is stereo. If people reacted badly to the 3D version, it's because of the 3D aspect, not directly the framerate. I also didn't hear that the 2D 48fps version was any better received.
James Cameron doesn't have any magical control over how people react to subconscious mental association. Maybe the fact that Avatar already looked fake and unbelievable will help, but people just appear to not like higher frame rates for movies.
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Offline Chino

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #378 on: January 18, 2016, 07:46:51 AM »
Cameron would never allow something like that on the big screen.

Errrrr I'm just going to leave that one alone......


48fps is 48fps. There's no difference in the native exposure time between the 2D and 3D versions, since they're derived from the same element, the only difference at all is one is mono and one is stereo. If people reacted badly to the 3D version, it's because of the 3D aspect, not directly the framerate. I also didn't hear that the 2D 48fps version was any better received.
James Cameron doesn't have any magical control over how people react to subconscious mental association. Maybe the fact that Avatar already looked fake and unbelievable will help, but people just appear to not like higher frame rates for movies.

I'm not baiting, I'm actually curious. Why do people prefer higher FRs on video games then? I've read a lot about VR over the last few years, and the getting a high frame rate seems to be the toughest obstacle. Why do people like watching video games at 60fps and movies at 24fps?

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #379 on: January 18, 2016, 08:13:00 AM »
That's not baiting at all, that's a great question.

As I said, it's a matter of mental association, and there's absolutely no technical reason to favour a lower framerate. VR and videogames don't have that same association in our minds because they're in an entirely different context where the higher framerate also has a direct positive impact, so the higher framerate is always desirable.

One major reason is obviously interactivity. In video games, higher framerates mean better responsiveness while playing, which makes a difference to how well the game plays, so people have favoured high frame rates in games long before games got to the point that the visuals themselves were up to that level of quality.

Another reason is context. As I said, people have a mental association with 24fps looking like a big movie and looking "better", whether they actually understand the why/how of it or not. But regular gameplay is not usually comparable to a movie, so people don't judge it as such. Therefore simply faster is better. Cutscenes are different of course, but modern cutscenes often do simulate a movie in that regard.

There's also motion blur. Traditionally, video games didn't employ motion blur, so a game at 24fps does not look like film at 24fps, which is why a video game running at less than 50-60fps can look jerky, while 24fps looks smooth despite the low frame rate. Modern games do also often utilize motion blur, but often only when they run natively at 30fps rather than 60fps. So higher framerates than film are usually needed to look as smooth.

VR is a different context again, but interactivity again is the major difference. Because VR is simulating/replacing an entire sense and includes realtime positional/rotational feedback, the higher framerate (and low input lag) is simply necessary to avoid a conflict of sensory information in the brain which leads to motion sickness etc. And again because of the context of simulating reality directly as we see it rather than being compared to film, the higher framerate is more desirable.
We view real life at the equivalent of a much higher framerate than film (the humans eyes don't have a framerate per se, but it equates to being able to resolve individual images at around 200fps or so from what I recall). 90fps has been determined as the approximate minimum figure necessary for VR "presence", because you're trying to trick human vision directly, unlike staring at a static screen.

Short answer, there isn't any technical reason that higher framerates are worse, it's all about overcoming a lifetime of movie viewing and expectation. It's likely something people will adjust to given enough time, but as a unique movie experience, it's not one people react to positively, unlike 3D for a lot of people.

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Offline TL

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #380 on: January 18, 2016, 08:17:49 AM »
Even though Star Wars has a ton of fans, there's always gonna be those people who don't watch a new SW-movie because their opinion is "Eww Star Wars". With Avatar, they managed to catch just about everyone's curiosity, because it was a brand new thing. I don't think Avatar 2 is gonna make more than 1.5 billion at most (probably closer to 1 billion) mainly because people have now seen it, and opinions were mixed. But that initial curiosity and getting even the skeptics to see it once was a big key to the success.
Also, for Avatar, the disproportionately high number of 3D and IMAX tickets, which are generally more expensive than normal tickets.

I'm not baiting, I'm actually curious. Why do people prefer higher FRs on video games then? I've read a lot about VR over the last few years, and the getting a high frame rate seems to be the toughest obstacle. Why do people like watching video games at 60fps and movies at 24fps?
One of the main reasons; even at their most realistic, video games are an animated medium. Animation doesn't typically look "off" at higher framerates the way live action does.

Offline BlackInk

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #381 on: January 18, 2016, 09:03:45 AM »
I saw Hobbit in 48 fps and I didn't even notice any difference. So I'm all for 60 I guess.

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #382 on: January 18, 2016, 09:31:10 AM »
For me it's like ano association thing. The only time in the past I'd see 60fps live action videos are on a home camcorder. So when I see movies like that, my brain thinks it looks cheap for some reason. That's probably something that can be unlearned, but I bet that's a problem for other people as well.

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #383 on: January 18, 2016, 09:42:19 AM »
Even though Star Wars has a ton of fans, there's always gonna be those people who don't watch a new SW-movie because their opinion is "Eww Star Wars". With Avatar, they managed to catch just about everyone's curiosity, because it was a brand new thing. I don't think Avatar 2 is gonna make more than 1.5 billion at most (probably closer to 1 billion) mainly because people have now seen it, and opinions were mixed. But that initial curiosity and getting even the skeptics to see it once was a big key to the success.
Do you think so? I dunno, my instinct says that TFA probably actually reached a wider audience than Avatar, but Avatar somehow did better at getting people like Chino to go and see it 10+ times.

Yeah definitely. I know a few who had the reasoning, and similar to the Marvel films, some people feel a need to catch up and when there's so much to catch up on, some people just don't go. With something like Avatar, it was a brand new thing and I think the curiosity was there for most people to see it. With something like TFA, a lot of people aren't into Star Wars (for shame) and just ignored it.

Offline gmillerdrake

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Re: Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?
« Reply #384 on: January 18, 2016, 10:02:04 AM »
I wouldn't be surprised if the Avatar sequels collectively made less than the first film.

I can see you being right. The 'hype' isn't the same...the technology really hasn't made leaps and bounds, it's been refined but the allure isn't there. I'll go see them but I imagine only once each.

This isn't entirely accurate. There have been three fairly large breakthroughs with the technology since the first movie.

Let me clarify a bit more. Certainly what you described has improved the technology and I didn't mean it'd stayed stagnate. I guess what I mean is that when AVATAR broke onto the scene the 3D technology Cameron used and 3D in general was 'new' and AVATAR was the first film that really utilized all the technology available to create an unbelievably awesome movie experience. I think nowdays....with all the Ultra HD TV's....the 3D movies....IMAX....so on and so on, I just don't see the 'hype' being there for the next batch of AVATAR as far as technology is concerned.

For the movies themselves? sure. Like you said there is a large community of folks waiting on pins and needles to see the upcoming sequels. I can see them duplicating what TFA has done meaning off to a fast start...strong for a month or so but then it just begins to steadily decline. Until the next barrier of technology is broken (i don't think it's here yet...whatever it is) I don't see a film doing what AVATAR did.
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