Author Topic: Election 2012  (Read 235742 times)

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Offline Super Dude

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2030 on: April 11, 2012, 09:59:42 AM »
Wow, that's surprising.
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Offline Chino

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2031 on: April 11, 2012, 10:23:36 AM »
I hate to be that guy... but... If Santorum's kid takes a turn for the worst, that will play right into his hands if he runs again in 2016.

Offline Super Dude

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2032 on: April 11, 2012, 10:24:56 AM »
I was kinda thinking that too, actually. Not sure how far it'd take him, but it might help leverage his primary race.
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Offline Chino

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2033 on: April 11, 2012, 10:35:09 AM »
I was kinda thinking that too, actually. Not sure how far it'd take him, but it might help leverage his primary race.

I think it will all come down to how the next 4 years go. If Obama gets elected for a second term, and our economy doesn't look much better than it is now, you can guarantee that the republicans will get the White House in 2016. I doubt Newt will run again, and I'm sure Romney and Santorum will be back in the race. However, Romney's credibility may be gone for good once he goes toe-to-toe with Obama for this term. It's going to be really interesting to see how the next five years play out.

Offline Scheavo

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2034 on: April 11, 2012, 11:12:13 AM »
Current polling is essentially meaningless.  Now that Romney and the half dozen PACs that are aligned with him can aim their shit-cannons at Obama, you watch those numbers erode.

You're also forgetting Obama can now run against Romney, and we get the comparison of Obama versus Romney. Romney does not look good in that regards, no matter how you look at it. Polling has shown for quite some time, that the idea's Obama will run on are popular (60%+), and Romney's are quite unpopular.

This is actually when I think the race starts to pull apart. Obama get's to defend Social Security and Medicare, he might get to run against the Supreme Court and on the issue of Health Care again (which leaves the Republicans stuttering without a response, seeing as how their solution just got ruled unconstitutional), he gets to attack Romney for his tax position and his tax status, he gets to attack Romney for his foreign policy (stay in Iraq, attack Iran, stay in Afghanistan, and his advisers are all Bush advisors), he gets to attack Romney for his position on Birth Control (supports person hood amendment, yet is so naive as to still say women should have birth control options), etc.

All Romney has going for him is anti-Obama sentiment. He clearly wasn't able to get his base riled up, he clearly isn't the ideal candidate.

Offline Chino

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2035 on: April 11, 2012, 11:19:07 AM »
Current polling is essentially meaningless.  Now that Romney and the half dozen PACs that are aligned with him can aim their shit-cannons at Obama, you watch those numbers erode.

All Romney has going for him is anti-Obama sentiment. He clearly wasn't able to get his base riled up, he clearly isn't the ideal candidate.

Those sentiments are just going to get worse. I can't imagine the type of shit that is going to pour out of his mouth come September. I can't wait to see what the Obama administration has up their sleeves as a counter attack. I am hoping Obama keeps his cool, and I am confident he will. I don't see him ever targetting Romney in a negative way. I think he will just play really good defense and get his point about Romney across in the process.

Right now, I think Obama's biggest problem is just how little many American's know about certain issues. I give you this gem I saw on facebook the other day. I don't understand why it is so hard for people to wrap their heads around the idea the gas prices are the result of a global economy. Is it Obama's fault that gas is $8.50+ a gallon in Italy?


Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2036 on: April 11, 2012, 11:27:58 AM »
People want a scapegoat, and they've been trained over the last few years that Obama is the default one. Keeps them from thinking, which is what they want.

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Offline Scheavo

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2037 on: April 11, 2012, 11:34:27 AM »
I doubt Obama (himself) will get negative , but he's also shown himself in the past that he's not going to tolerate lies and distortions about his record. Considering that's Romney's platform, it gives him a lot of ammo against Romney, without getting negative.

His speech yesterday also showed he's going to show how he's different than the Republican candidate.

Offline Chino

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2038 on: April 11, 2012, 11:37:02 AM »


His speech yesterday also showed he's going to show how he's different than the Republican candidate.

Could you possibly supply a link to some clips from it? I missed it.

Offline TL

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2039 on: April 11, 2012, 11:37:27 AM »
Seriously, most Americans don't realize how insanely cheap gasoline has been in their country for a while now compared to basically the rest of the world. Right now, some Americans are freaking out about the possibility of gas maybe going high as the equivalent of $1.05 per liter. Here in Canada, that would be considered pretty cheap.

If gas price trends are anything like they have been every year for quite some time now, Obama doesn't have much to worry about. Typically, gas prices go up in the spring and down in the fall. If that trend continues, gas prices will be in a noticeably decline for a month or two leading into the election.

Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2040 on: April 11, 2012, 11:38:15 AM »
Don't underestimate the pathological Obama hatred.   He might beat Romney but it won't be a cakewalk.

And Of COURSE he'll go negative - he has absolutely NO choice in the matter.  Negative ads are the most effective ads you can publish.   In fact, his campaign has ALREADY hit the internet with a negative ad.

Offline rumborak

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2041 on: April 11, 2012, 11:41:22 AM »
Dangerous nonetheless to go negative. One of the things that I really liked about Obama's campaign 4 years ago was that he stayed away from negativity.

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Offline Chino

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2042 on: April 11, 2012, 11:45:24 AM »
Dangerous nonetheless to go negative. One of the things that I really liked about Obama's campaign 4 years ago was that he stayed away from negativity.

rumborak

And I think he could use that in his campaign this time around to his advantage. Stress whether or not you want someone who constantly thinks posistively or someone who constantly thinks negatively in the White House.

Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2043 on: April 11, 2012, 12:21:47 PM »
Dangerous nonetheless to go negative. One of the things that I really liked about Obama's campaign 4 years ago was that he stayed away from negativity.

rumborak

That's simply not true.

Not true, at all.

What I would agree with is McCain ran more negative ads than Obama did and McCain went negative long before Obama did, but Obama most certainly did not "stay away from negativity" and if he wants another term he's going to have to run negative ads against Mitt Romney too. 

Why?  Because they work.

Offline J51

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2044 on: April 11, 2012, 12:43:05 PM »
Santorum will never be a strong candidate for POTUS again. He was in the right place at the right time in a weak class of Republican candidates. Come 2016, names like Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush will be the ones to look out for. Santorum got his 15 minutes of fame, and now he has some good options, but I'm not sure if being an elected official is one of them. He can probably be a lobbyist or public speaker and make bank for the rest of his life. He is still pretty young in the political world.

Offline Chino

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2045 on: April 11, 2012, 12:46:03 PM »
Santorum will never be a strong candidate for POTUS again. He was in the right place at the right time in a weak class of Republican candidates.

But the fact that he made it so far makes me think otherwise. In my opinion, he's the second worst candidate that was in the race... actually, thinking back on it now, I take that back. Nevermind  :lol

Offline Super Dude

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2046 on: April 11, 2012, 12:53:36 PM »
Santorum will never be a strong candidate for POTUS again. He was in the right place at the right time in a weak class of Republican candidates. Come 2016, names like Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush will be the ones to look out for. Santorum got his 15 minutes of fame, and now he has some good options, but I'm not sure if being an elected official is one of them. He can probably be a lobbyist or public speaker and make bank for the rest of his life. He is still pretty young in the political world.

The others I can understand, but that one...I dunno. I could be wrong on this, but more than anything I think he would just be a constant reminder of his brother for the American people.
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Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2047 on: April 11, 2012, 01:42:10 PM »
Santorum will never be a strong candidate for POTUS again. He was in the right place at the right time in a weak class of Republican candidates. Come 2016, names like Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush will be the ones to look out for. Santorum got his 15 minutes of fame, and now he has some good options, but I'm not sure if being an elected official is one of them. He can probably be a lobbyist or public speaker and make bank for the rest of his life. He is still pretty young in the political world.

The others I can understand, but that one...I dunno. I could be wrong on this, but more than anything I think he would just be a constant reminder of his brother for the American people.

His brother had two terms.  His brother was RE-Elected AFTER we KNEW that the Iraq war was the biggest foreign policy blunder in the history of the US.  Don't underestimate the general stupidity of the American electorate. 

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2048 on: April 11, 2012, 01:43:46 PM »
Santorum will never be a strong candidate for POTUS again. He was in the right place at the right time in a weak class of Republican candidates. Come 2016, names like Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush will be the ones to look out for. Santorum got his 15 minutes of fame, and now he has some good options, but I'm not sure if being an elected official is one of them. He can probably be a lobbyist or public speaker and make bank for the rest of his life. He is still pretty young in the political world.

The others I can understand, but that one...I dunno. I could be wrong on this, but more than anything I think he would just be a constant reminder of his brother for the American people.

His brother had two terms.  His brother was RE-Elected AFTER we KNEW that the Iraq war was the biggest foreign policy blunder in the history of the US.  Don't underestimate the general stupidity of the American electorate.
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Offline Super Dude

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2049 on: April 11, 2012, 01:57:32 PM »
Santorum will never be a strong candidate for POTUS again. He was in the right place at the right time in a weak class of Republican candidates. Come 2016, names like Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush will be the ones to look out for. Santorum got his 15 minutes of fame, and now he has some good options, but I'm not sure if being an elected official is one of them. He can probably be a lobbyist or public speaker and make bank for the rest of his life. He is still pretty young in the political world.

The others I can understand, but that one...I dunno. I could be wrong on this, but more than anything I think he would just be a constant reminder of his brother for the American people.

His brother had two terms.  His brother was RE-Elected AFTER we KNEW that the Iraq war was the biggest foreign policy blunder in the history of the US.  Don't underestimate the general stupidity of the American electorate.

Well sure, but right now he's only a governor. Could be a different story once he's propped up to the federal level.
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Offline Scheavo

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2050 on: April 11, 2012, 02:04:11 PM »
Santorum will never be a strong candidate for POTUS again. He was in the right place at the right time in a weak class of Republican candidates. Come 2016, names like Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush will be the ones to look out for. Santorum got his 15 minutes of fame, and now he has some good options, but I'm not sure if being an elected official is one of them. He can probably be a lobbyist or public speaker and make bank for the rest of his life. He is still pretty young in the political world.

The others I can understand, but that one...I dunno. I could be wrong on this, but more than anything I think he would just be a constant reminder of his brother for the American people.

His brother had two terms.  His brother was RE-Elected AFTER we KNEW that the Iraq war was the biggest foreign policy blunder in the history of the US.  Don't underestimate the general stupidity of the American electorate.

Well sure, but right now he's only a governor. Could be a different story once he's propped up to the federal level.

I think that anti-Bush vote would be too high. I maen, if we elect Jeb Bush, we might as well throw out all pretense of being even a Republic - we'd obviously be an oligarchy at that point.

Offline J51

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2051 on: April 11, 2012, 07:38:52 PM »
I agree that George W probably ruined Jeb's chances with his incompetence, but many Republicans still list Jeb Bush on their short list of 2016 possibilities. I think Rubio is the favorite for the 2016 bid (assuming Obama wins 2012). He's young, sharp, diverse, a Tea Party favorite...basically everything the Republicans are looking for to energize their base. Romney will most likely ask him to be the VP, but most reports state that he will decline.

Offline Super Dude

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2052 on: April 11, 2012, 09:13:46 PM »
I agree that George W probably ruined Jeb's chances with his incompetence, but many Republicans still list Jeb Bush on their short list of 2016 possibilities. I think Rubio is the favorite for the 2016 bid (assuming Obama wins 2012). He's young, sharp, diverse, a Tea Party favorite...basically everything the Republicans are looking for to energize their base. Romney will most likely ask him to be the VP, but most reports state that he will decline.

I'm not so sure about that, considering the fiscal-social conservative divide that seems to be happening now, as we were discussing a couple of pages ago.
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Offline Riceball

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2053 on: April 12, 2012, 01:03:29 AM »
A potential sleeper issue for the Presidential campaign: petrol (aka 'gas') prices.

The US Fed is becoming pretty concerned about the impact they are having/will have on the economy: https://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Rising-fuel-costs-cloud-economic-outlook-T9TRD?OpenDocument&src=hp31

Your thoughts?
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Offline Super Dude

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2054 on: April 12, 2012, 06:26:56 AM »
Welcome to the last month in American election politics. :p
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Offline TL

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2055 on: April 12, 2012, 07:47:55 AM »
It's such a sleeper issue that we've been talking about it for the last few pages.

Offline hefdaddy42

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2056 on: April 12, 2012, 09:48:45 AM »
I actually read this morning that some experts think we've peaked on gas prices and are back on the way down.
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Offline tofee35

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2057 on: April 12, 2012, 10:36:05 AM »
Hey guys, sorry to change the direction of this a bit. This has been on my mind for awhile:

I've been following Obama and Romney on Twitter for a year now. Despite what their policies and promises are, they are putting a very negative face forward. The amount of smear going on is embarrassing. It makes me feel sick that one of the most powerful men in the world and the person trying to become that want to portray themselves as 5 year olds fighting for a candy bar. I don't get it. I really don't. I've never understood smear campaigns in the first place. A couple years ago Scott Brown won the Massachusetts Senate seat as a Republican. He used nothing but positive messages in his campaign. He made people feel comfortable about letting him be their representative. Meanwhile, his competitor (forget her name) ran nothing but smear campaigns and lost badly. There's something to be said about how a candidate wants to be perceived. I think it has more of an effect on the general public than actual policies and campaign promises. What do yo think?

Offline yeshaberto

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2058 on: April 12, 2012, 10:42:51 AM »
Hey guys, sorry to change the direction of this a bit. This has been on my mind for awhile:

I've been following Obama and Romney on Twitter for a year now. Despite what their policies and promises are, they are putting a very negative face forward. The amount of smear going on is embarrassing. It makes me feel sick that one of the most powerful men in the world and the person trying to become that want to portray themselves as 5 year olds fighting for a candy bar. I don't get it. I really don't. I've never understood smear campaigns in the first place. A couple years ago Scott Brown won the Massachusetts Senate seat as a Republican. He used nothing but positive messages in his campaign. He made people feel comfortable about letting him be their representative. Meanwhile, his competitor (forget her name) ran nothing but smear campaigns and lost badly. There's something to be said about how a candidate wants to be perceived. I think it has more of an effect on the general public than actual policies and campaign promises. What do yo think?

I agree 1000%.

Offline Super Dude

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2059 on: April 12, 2012, 11:32:14 AM »
What smear campaign did Elizabeth Warren put forward?
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Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2060 on: April 12, 2012, 11:37:29 AM »
Hey guys, sorry to change the direction of this a bit. This has been on my mind for awhile:

I've been following Obama and Romney on Twitter for a year now. Despite what their policies and promises are, they are putting a very negative face forward. The amount of smear going on is embarrassing. It makes me feel sick that one of the most powerful men in the world and the person trying to become that want to portray themselves as 5 year olds fighting for a candy bar. I don't get it. I really don't. I've never understood smear campaigns in the first place. A couple years ago Scott Brown won the Massachusetts Senate seat as a Republican. He used nothing but positive messages in his campaign. He made people feel comfortable about letting him be their representative. Meanwhile, his competitor (forget her name) ran nothing but smear campaigns and lost badly. There's something to be said about how a candidate wants to be perceived. I think it has more of an effect on the general public than actual policies and campaign promises. What do yo think?

First, let me start by saying that I agree with the sentiment expressed in your post.  Negative ads are pretty sickening and the do make our politicians look petty and immature.  Unfortunately, they run negative ads because they are -BY FAR- the most effective ads in political campaigns. 

I live in MA and I am a registered Democrat.  Martha Coakley was possibly the worst person to replace Ted Kennedy that I could think of.  By the way, she didn't "lose badly" she lost by 5% - hardly a landslide. 

Martha Coakley lost because she ran a completely inept campaign and because the national Democratic Party never imagined that an upstart Republican who was a relative nobody would win Ted Kennedy's seat in the bluest of blue states.  So they did not provide her with any funding early on.  By contrast, Scott Brown had financial support from the RNC from day one.  By the time the DNC realized that she was in trouble (about 10 days before the election) it was too late.  But in a last ditch effort they funded, produced and aired a bunch of attack ads in that final week.  This is why a lot of people believe that ALL she ran was attack ads.  That's not true and I personally remember at least two or three ads she ran that were not negative at all.  The problem was, they didn't air all that often because her campaign did not have the financial resources necessary to air them frequently. 

Had the DNC backed Coakley from the beginning, I don't know if Brown would have won.    He ran a brilliant campaign, though.  Gotta give him credit for that. 

Offline Scheavo

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2061 on: April 12, 2012, 11:38:53 AM »
Hey guys, sorry to change the direction of this a bit. This has been on my mind for awhile:

I've been following Obama and Romney on Twitter for a year now. Despite what their policies and promises are, they are putting a very negative face forward. The amount of smear going on is embarrassing. It makes me feel sick that one of the most powerful men in the world and the person trying to become that want to portray themselves as 5 year olds fighting for a candy bar. I don't get it. I really don't. I've never understood smear campaigns in the first place. A couple years ago Scott Brown won the Massachusetts Senate seat as a Republican. He used nothing but positive messages in his campaign. He made people feel comfortable about letting him be their representative. Meanwhile, his competitor (forget her name) ran nothing but smear campaigns and lost badly. There's something to be said about how a candidate wants to be perceived. I think it has more of an effect on the general public than actual policies and campaign promises. What do yo think?

Can you link to some of this smear stuff you're talking about with Obama?

From my experience, and after research, I've found that just about everything Romney tries to smear Obama on is a complete lie, or just so blatantly hypocritical that it's disgusting. Serving from memory 4 years ago, Obama stayed pretty above the fray. He did run some negative ads, but for the most part and comparatively, they were based upon the record. Meanwhile, McCain threw out some new bullshit every 4 days, trying to call him a terrorist, and bad for America. Just becuase an ad is negative towards someone else, doesn't mean it's inappropriate. It's inappropriate when it distorts the record, or leaves out important information.

So what I think is that, ya, a clean campaign would be nice. Of course, some negative ads are necessary, as that's part of who someone is, and who their record is. However, it's usually not accurate, it's usually a lie, and it's usually distortion. Now, unless both parties agree to run a clean campaign, that pretty much means you're going to devolve into a dirty race. In this instance, Romney has been basically slandering Obama for four years.* When you have someone so viciously attacking you, it's basically self-defense.

*Lately, the man's showing just how much of a political sleaze ball he is. He attacked Obama for being a Harvard Elite, that he "spent too much time at Harvard" - WHEN ROMNEY HAS MOE DEGREES AND WENT TO HARVARD FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. I just cant' think of anything Obama has ever done that comes close to comparing at all to these kind of tactics.

*edit*

Oh, so I thought of the worse Obama attack so far - his comment about Romney's wife not having to work. I think the point being made is valid, but it was horribly expressed. IT wasn't that being a stay at home wife is a bad thing - it's that for many, many, many people, that's not an option. I'm sure my own mom would have loved to raise me more, but our family needed the money, so she worked 12 + hours a day, and barely got to see me.

Hopefully that point doesn't get lost, because it's an important one.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2012, 11:54:16 AM by Scheavo »

Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2062 on: April 12, 2012, 11:57:21 AM »

Oh, so I thought of the worse Obama attack so far - his comment about Romney's wife not having to work. I think the point being made is valid, but it was horribly expressed. IT wasn't that being a stay at home wife is a bad thing - it's that for many, many, many people, that's not an option. I'm sure my own mom would have loved to raise me more, but our family needed the money, so she worked 12 + hours a day, and barely got to see me.

Hopefully that point doesn't get lost, because it's an important one.

When did OBAMA actually say that? 

Offline Scheavo

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2063 on: April 12, 2012, 12:01:24 PM »

Oh, so I thought of the worse Obama attack so far - his comment about Romney's wife not having to work. I think the point being made is valid, but it was horribly expressed. IT wasn't that being a stay at home wife is a bad thing - it's that for many, many, many people, that's not an option. I'm sure my own mom would have loved to raise me more, but our family needed the money, so she worked 12 + hours a day, and barely got to see me.

Hopefully that point doesn't get lost, because it's an important one.

When did OBAMA actually say that?

Well, if want to use that logic, neither candidate is going to really get that negative. They'll have "third-party" super pacs do it. I should have been clearer, and said the Obama Campaign.

Cause if Obama did make that point, he wouldn't fuck it up so badly, me thinks.

Offline kirksnosehair

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Re: Election 2012
« Reply #2064 on: April 12, 2012, 12:09:33 PM »

Oh, so I thought of the worse Obama attack so far - his comment about Romney's wife not having to work. I think the point being made is valid, but it was horribly expressed. IT wasn't that being a stay at home wife is a bad thing - it's that for many, many, many people, that's not an option. I'm sure my own mom would have loved to raise me more, but our family needed the money, so she worked 12 + hours a day, and barely got to see me.

Hopefully that point doesn't get lost, because it's an important one.

When did OBAMA actually say that?

Well, if want to use that logic, neither candidate is going to really get that negative. They'll have "third-party" super pacs do it. I should have been clearer, and said the Obama Campaign.

Cause if Obama did make that point, he wouldn't fuck it up so badly, me thinks.

But she doesn't work for the Obama nor is she employed by the Obama campaign.