NHL 2022-2023: FA July 13th - LET IT BEGIN

[Stadler]

So, hypothetically... you're the GM of the 33rd franchise in the league, and can pick any player to be a member of your team, you'd pick Tkachuk over McDavid?

I might.   

Look, if "having the best player in the league" ensured winning, we'd see basically a very different Cup winner every season back to the last time Lemiuex won. With a handful of exceptions, I've never been the guy that gushes over the flashy stat guy.   

Age is a factor, but if I could take Patrice Bergeron at 30 (greatest defensive forward of all time), or Connor McDavid now to start my team?   Bergeron all day long.   

I don't want guys with gaudy numbers. I want guys that WIN.  McDavid does not now have enough Stanley Cups - that is to say, zero - to warrant me forming a team around him.

Oh, and to that point, Ovechkin isn't now and never will be the "greatest goal scorer in the NHL".  He might, someday, be the player with the most goals scored as an NHL player, but Gretzky is, and always will be, knowing what we know now and regardless of how many goals anyone else scores, be the GREATEST goal scorer of all time.

[Stadler]

I didn't know when the cutoff was, so there's that, but my point goes a little farther than that:  MVP isn't REALLY "most Valuable player", it's "best player".  Connor was, probably the best player, but Edmonton never scared me at any point in the season.  Matthew Tkachuk scares me when my team is playing against him.

Lova ya' Bill but you're WAY off here. There's no universe where you pick anyone over McDavid....especially right now. He's only 26....I doubt we've seen his best hockey yet. I 'get' the sentiment behind tkachuk because he is tenacious and brings a certain moxi with him....but....there isn't a player playing hockey today in the NHL or AHL that you could justifiably pick over McDavid. He is a threat every single time he touches the puck.

MVP doesn't mean 'best' player.....it means the player most valuable to their teams success....it's another justifiable win for him. He'll probably get another three before it's all said and done.

I think it does at this point.  McDavid IS the best player.   Was he most responsible for his teams success?   I don't know.   If it's only "regular season", Linus Ullmark deserves to be in that conversation.   Greatest regular season in the history of the league, and Ullmark was a HUGE part of that.  (I don't mean to be a homer; it's just the example I have to hand.)

[jingle.boy]

There are 32 players in the league who are "the most valuable to their team".  There's an argument for Tage Thompson, or Sebastien Aho, or Tim Stutzle, or Clayton Keller.  But to be the MOST Most Valuable Player, skills and ability and impact and results and other factors come in to play.

Honestly Bill, sometimes it's really hard to believe you aren't just contrarian for the sake of being contrarian.  I respect your opinions and positions, but sometimes they're just so far off the reservation I have to   Ullmark?  The team had nearly as much success when Swayman was between the pipes as when it was Ullmark.

[gmillerdrake]

Age is a factor, but if I could take Patrice Bergeron at 30 (greatest defensive forward of all time), or Connor McDavid now to start my team?   Bergeron all day long. 

In the words of the Grail Knight to Walter Donovan....."You, have chosen....poorly"

There is no world where that is a sane choice. Bergeron is a very good defensive forward, but I can find a dozen other younger forwards in the league who would fit the role Bergeron could on a team built around McDavid.

[KevShmev]

Serious question, Bill: would you take Trent Dilfer over Dan Marino?  I mean, Marino put up gaudy stats, but Dilfer won.  1 Super Bowl to Marino's 0.   If you want guys who win, you have to take Dilfer, right?

[Stadler]

Serious question, Bill: would you take Trent Dilfer over Dan Marino?  I mean, Marino put up gaudy stats, but Dilfer won.  1 Super Bowl to Marino's 0.   If you want guys who win, you have to take Dilfer, right?

Well, no, because Dilfer wasn't the catalyst for the win.  But the list of guys I would take before Marino is a lot longer than you'd think.   

There are guys that just win wherever they are.  They make everyone around them better.   Tkachuk was the obvious guy, and when he wasn't in the lineup, the team played down to earth.  But not only was Tkachuk the guy that got a couple goals, guys like Bennett, Gudas  and Barbas all played MATERIALLY better with Tkachuk on the ice (or at least in the lineup). 

Bergeron is one of those guys.  LOCKER ROOM to me is AS important as what's on the field/rink.   

Honestly Bill, sometimes it's really hard to believe you aren't just contrarian for the sake of being contrarian.  I respect your opinions and positions, but sometimes they're just so far off the reservation I have to   Ullmark?  The team had nearly as much success when Swayman was between the pipes as when it was Ullmark.

I get why you say that, but it's not accurate. I think I've been consistent over the years with my position on this.  Just go back to any of the conversations in the NFL thread about QBs.   I am not now and never have been a 'star-fucker' when it comes to athletes.   

It's not just players; my favorite sports figure right now is Geno Auriemma at Uconn.  11 WBB national champions and his mantra this season?  Let him tell you:

“The thing I learned a long time ago ... is stop talking about what you're going to do. Stop talking about what you hope happens and what happened last year and how you felt. Now that you put that out there, that's it, it's over, it's done with. Everybody knows. 'Hey, what's your goal at Connecticut?' What do you think it is at Connecticut? The goal is to win a national championship every year. Everybody knows it. You don't have to talk about it.”

“This isn't a 1970s rock band out for their 60th tour and they have to give every tour a name,” Auriemma said. “Everybody's got a 'Redeem team' and everybody's got a 'Reload team' and everybody's got an 'Unfinished business team.'  Maybe we're not very social media savvy. How about we just shut the f--- up and win games? How about we just do that? Maybe that's what the tour should be: 'Shut the f--- up and win games.'”

Jim McMahon's body let him down, but he won football games.  Phil Simms? Virtually no athletic talent, but he won football games (in seasons where he played 10 or more games, only one losing season). 

I'm not interested in a 60 goal scorer who is home in mid-May watching the rest of the Stanley Cup playoffs along with me.

[gmillerdrake]

Bergeron is one of those guys.  LOCKER ROOM to me is AS important as what's on the field/rink.   

Across the board by every teammate he's had.....McDavid is spoke about in high regard. He is a locker room guy as well that goes out and leads by example. It's not his fault his organization can't seem to find defense or goaltending. He, and his offense have done everything they can to get the Oilers over the hump.

I'm not interested in a 60 goal scorer who is home in mid-May watching the rest of the Stanley Cup playoffs along with me.

But you are interested in an 'aged out' 30 year old locker room guy who 'led' a team that completely collapsed and choked?  who by the way was watching right along with you mid-may?



It's OK to be wrong every now and then Bill     I like your willingness to defend your position(s) but every now and then......like this one....your just wrong. It's alright to wave the white flag. Again, there is no reality where if you're starting a team and have a choice to take ANY player for that first player that it isn't McDavid. He makes every player around him twice as good as they actually are simply by being on the ice with him.

[pg1067]

There are guys that just win wherever they are.  They make everyone around them better.   Tkachuk was the obvious guy, and when he wasn't in the lineup, the team played down to earth.  But not only was Tkachuk the guy that got a couple goals, guys like Bennett, Gudas  and Barbas all played MATERIALLY better with Tkachuk on the ice (or at least in the lineup). 

Bergeron is one of those guys.  LOCKER ROOM to me is AS important as what's on the field/rink.   

Honestly, this sounds like east coast bias.  You see and have seen Bergeron a ton because he's spent his whole career with your team.  Tkachuk got a lot of exposure in the EASTERN conference finals.  How did Edmonton do without McDavid in the lineup?  What's McDavid like in the locker room?  Do you know?  Why are you assuming Bergeron is better in the room than McDavid?  Have you seen anywhere near as many Edmonton games, most of which don't start until 10:30 p.m. eastern time?  You've got 149/150 guys saying McDavid was most valuable, but...?

I'm not interested in a 60 goal scorer who is home in mid-May watching the rest of the Stanley Cup playoffs along with me.

But you are interested in a 27-goal scorer who was home before May even started (and who, the year before, went home at the end of the first round as well)??

[SchecterShredder]

Oilers trade Yamamoto and Kostin to the Wings. Neither are really a surprise. Apparently Holland and Kostin's camp were too far apart on a new deal, and there were already rumors swirling that he might head to the KHL. Hope he signs with Detroit. He was a good pickup for the Oil, and wish him success.

Yamo is an interesting one. He was touted as a highly skilled, but undersized forward. I'm not at all surprised he was moved given how badly he's underperformed. He's a very under sized player who doesn't put up the offensive numbers to back up his lack of stature. Not sure what Detroit is going to do with him.

[gmillerdrake]

Oilers trade Yamamoto and Kostin to the Wings. Neither are really a surprise. Apparently Holland and Kostin's camp were too far apart on a new deal, and there were already rumors swirling that he might head to the KHL. Hope he signs with Detroit. He was a good pickup for the Oil, and wish him success.

Honestly, he's a headcase. The Blues giftwrapped several occasions and periods of time where they kept him in the lineup and practically begged him to step up and take over a role. So much talent but terribly inconsistent and his camp always seemed to point the finger as to why his success was sporadic. KHL is probably his best fit.

[SchecterShredder]

Oilers trade Yamamoto and Kostin to the Wings. Neither are really a surprise. Apparently Holland and Kostin's camp were too far apart on a new deal, and there were already rumors swirling that he might head to the KHL. Hope he signs with Detroit. He was a good pickup for the Oil, and wish him success.

Honestly, he's a headcase. The Blues giftwrapped several occasions and periods of time where they kept him in the lineup and practically begged him to step up and take over a role. So much talent but terribly inconsistent and his camp always seemed to point the finger as to why his success was sporadic. KHL is probably his best fit.

That's a fair assessment. Had he been more consistent, I'm sure Holland would have easily given him the $2M he's asking.

[gmillerdrake]

Oilers trade Yamamoto and Kostin to the Wings. Neither are really a surprise. Apparently Holland and Kostin's camp were too far apart on a new deal, and there were already rumors swirling that he might head to the KHL. Hope he signs with Detroit. He was a good pickup for the Oil, and wish him success.

Honestly, he's a headcase. The Blues giftwrapped several occasions and periods of time where they kept him in the lineup and practically begged him to step up and take over a role. So much talent but terribly inconsistent and his camp always seemed to point the finger as to why his success was sporadic. KHL is probably his best fit.

That's a fair assessment. Had he been more consistent, I'm sure Holland would have easily given him the $2M he's asking.

I pulled for him for quite some time.....but sooner or later you have to perform. don't know why he's unable to take that next step to an everyday player. Maybe it'll happen in Detroit.

[Stadler]

But you are interested in an 'aged out' 30 year old locker room guy who 'led' a team that completely collapsed and choked?  who by the way was watching right along with you mid-may?

Well, what's good for McDavid is good for everyone else; Ullmark choked the chicken, and Bergeron was seriously hurt at age, what, 37?  But he's got a Cup and two other Finals appearances.  Has McDavid even appeared there?

It's OK to be wrong every now and then Bill     I like your willingness to defend your position(s) but every now and then......like this one....your just wrong. It's alright to wave the white flag. Again, there is no reality where if you're starting a team and have a choice to take ANY player for that first player that it isn't McDavid. He makes every player around him twice as good as they actually are simply by being on the ice with him.

I'm fine with being wrong; this is really about preferences.  I just don't gravitate to the showy guys.  You shut them down and you tend to shut the team down.  That's where Bergeron is key; Pastrnak is the "star" on the Bruins; but when he disappeared - and he disappeared - Bergergon and Marchand and others stepped up.

Look, I'm not bagging on McDavid; I'm not going to die on that hill.  Maybe I'm wrong on him, particularly.  But my point stands; the star player isn't necessarily the winningest.  I admire what he's done on the ice and I watched him on the skills competition; he's insane with his speed and the accuracy of his shot.  This isn't a dig on McDavid. It's a comment that there are other players that are quietly dominant. 

[jingle.boy]

Well, the Hart Trophy isn't also the "Most Successful", or "Most Winningest" award either. 

When McDavid was shut down, Draisaitl carried the ball.  I think you're mixing up "showy" with "unique talent and skills".  I'd hardly call McDavid a showy person ... he's just monumentally more talented than everyone else.

[Stadler]

Well, the Hart Trophy isn't also the "Most Successful", or "Most Winningest" award either. 

When McDavid was shut down, Draisaitl carried the ball.  I think you're mixing up "showy" with "unique talent and skills".  I'd hardly call McDavid a showy person ... he's just monumentally more talented than everyone else.

I meant showy numbers.  "Big numbers!" as Randall Boggs would say.   I agree McDavid is not a "showy" player or person.

David Pastrnak had the most goals by a long shot and signed the "big guy" contract in Boston, and honestly, he's not in my top five of players on the B's (Bergeron, Marchand, Lindholm, McAvoy and Orlov) right now (though Orlov probably won't be signed, unfortunately).

As for McDavid and Draisaitl, that just argues that I think I'd rather have Draisaitl than McDavid. 

[jingle.boy]

So you're disregarding all the times McDavid carried the team in the last 8 years?

[pg1067]

So you're disregarding all the times McDavid carried the team in the last 8 years?

For most of which he's been the captain of the team.  Also, Bergeron didn't win squat until he was basically McDavid's age.  The Kings have a guy who's every bit as good as Bergeron, but we haven't had anyone like McDavid in over 30 years.  I don't really like the guy or the Oilers, but I'd French kiss a frog to get him on my team.

[TAC]

What's with the Bergeron disses?

[jingle.boy]

What's with the Bergeron disses?

Facts =/= disrespect.

[TAC]

What's with the Bergeron disses?

Facts =/= disrespect.

No of course not.


I think by default, the best player is the most valuable, no?

[pg1067]

I have NOTHING but respect for Bergeron.

[Anguyen92]

We all love Bergeron, but let's be real, I'm in the same boat as PG.  I despise McDavid and the Oilers (the Kings had to face them at least 20 games in the last two years so we see firsthand how effective McDavid is), but when it comes to the most valuable player for a team in comparison to 31 other players that are most valuable to their respective teams, it's extremely hard to not go with McDavid. 

Should there be someone that can have a controversial opinion on that?  Yes, and we saw that in the writers votes, but everyone else agrees that McDavid is the best of the bunch when it comes to being the main driver for his team.  They all can't be wrong and these writers watches mainly their main teams around the league and they still went with McDavid.

Here's how you know some of the writers that votes in these awards take it seriously.  Jon Rosen, former writer of the LA Kings Insider official team blog, that's gone more independent but still mainly covers the Kings, stated that he did not have Kopitar (whose always in the debate for the Selke and Bergeron's contemporary in that category) in his top 5 when it comes to the Selke.  He stated that this award is not a career achievement award and felt that when it comes to defensive metrics, Kopitar was not as efficient for the Kings, this season, as he did for the seasons when he won the Selkes and thought Phil Danault handled more of the heavier lifting when it comes to the defensive forward responsibilities for the Kings.

[Nick]

I have a ton of respect for Bergeron.

But if the question is, "who would you build your team around", and your choices are McDavid now and a 30 year old Bergeron... and you choose the latter...

I mean, there's really no nice way to say this, so I'll be as polite as possible:

You're either being silly, or trolling. Silly is the word I'd really like to change to something else.

[TAC]

Who's saying Bergeron is better than McDavid? Not me.

But if the question is, "who would you build your team around", and your choices are McDavid now and a 30 year old Bergeron...

McDavid, obviously.

[Nick]

I mean, I'm trying to be nice, but if you need it singled out again.

Age is a factor, but if I could take Patrice Bergeron at 30 (greatest defensive forward of all time), or Connor McDavid now to start my team?   Bergeron all day long.   

[TAC]

I mean, I'm trying to be nice, but if you need it singled out again.

Age is a factor, but if I could take Patrice Bergeron at 30 (greatest defensive forward of all time), or Connor McDavid now to start my team?   Bergeron all day long.   

It's a sports opinion.

[jingle.boy]

I mean, I'm trying to be nice, but if you need it singled out again.

Age is a factor, but if I could take Patrice Bergeron at 30 (greatest defensive forward of all time), or Connor McDavid now to start my team?   Bergeron all day long.   

It's a sports opinion.

It’s a Stadler sports opinion. Double whammy!   

[TAC]

I mean, I'm trying to be nice, but if you need it singled out again.

Age is a factor, but if I could take Patrice Bergeron at 30 (greatest defensive forward of all time), or Connor McDavid now to start my team?   Bergeron all day long.   

It's a sports opinion.

It’s a Stadler sports opinion. Double whammy!   

In his defense, all he's saying is that he'd take the proven commodity over the over the young hot shot.


Almost half of McDavid's points are PP points, and for all those stats, he was still only a +22.
I believe McDavid's best days are ahead of him as he becomes a more complete player.

[Anguyen92]

It's not like he's horrible defensively.  He's all right.  Heck, if he forces a turnover in the defense zone on the PK and forces a breakaway, it's usually game over for the goalie.  I've seen a few of those goals.  It's just not what you really want to allocate his most important minutes on.

[TAC]

It's not like he's horrible defensively.  He's all right.  Heck, if he forces a turnover in the defense zone on the PK and forces a breakaway, it's usually game over for the goalie.  I've seen a few of those goals.  It's just not what you really want to allocate his most important minutes on.

Oh yeah, he's ridiculous.

[Stadler]

What's with the Bergeron disses?

Apparently I ruffled some feathers by not properly fellating Connor McDavid.   I think I've been clear.  Over the same eight years that supposedly Connor was transforming the game. 

NO ONE, not least of all me, said Connor McDavid sucked, or wasn't an exceptional player.  Much like the conversations we've had about Patrick Mahomes (where I was grossly misunderstood there, too), I just prefer a different kind of player.   Just like there are "defensive" defensemen and "offensive" defensemen, so here.  I'm not interested in highlight reels.  I'm interested in the guys that will leave everything on the ice and will be as dangerous, as deadly when they're NOT putting mad pucks in the net.  When they are hurt.  When they are off the ice.  MAYBE Connor can do that.  I'm not saying he can't or doesn't. 

Much like the Panthers and the Knights were two very different teams in terms of style, I prefer a different kind of player.   I'm usually going to form a team that doesn't rely on the generational player.   

I'm not going to go into it here, but some nerds think that Corsi, Fenwick and Close Fenwick are the best predictors of "wins" in the NHL. (They are all based largely on possession, using shots as a proxy for possession; there are variations: Fenwick is across the game, Close Fenwick is when the score is within two goals).  Let's go to the videotape:
 in 2022-2023, on this one Patrice Bergeron - at 37 and probably on the downside of his career (if not in the twilight) was 43rd in Corsi, and Connor McDavid was 139th (Matthew Tkachuk was 21st, by the way).  Bergeron was 39th in Fenwick and McDavid was 175th (Tkachuk was 30th).  In the playoffs, Bergeron was fourth in the league.  McDavid was seventh ON HIS TEAM, and 22nd in the league.  

The question was "who would you start your team with".  I'm starting a team to WIN HOCKEY GAMES, not win awards or put up flashy numbers.   I get that most - all - of you don't agree with me, and that's fine.  I'm quite okay with that.  BUT, before you dismiss me as "silly" or "contrarian" or "trolling", there IS some science to this.  I'm not completely out in left field.   

[jingle.boy]

I'm gonna go all Tim here... what the fuck is a corsi or a fenwick?  Sounds like Hobbit clans.

Digging deep to find the stats that back up your position.  Last time I checked, wins come from the team that scores more goals than they allow.  I Connor participated in 150+ goals.  Seems like a pretty good and direct indicator of an individual players contribution to team success.

[SchecterShredder]

First general criticism of Corsi is exactly Connor's situation: "A good player playing consistently with bad players will have a lower Corsi number, while a good player playing with great players will get a boost. ". While Connor does play PP with Leon, they don't play on a line together very often for 5v5. He often ends up with 2nd or 3rd line caliber players because he can pretty much carry the load himself. No one doubts Boston has a very good core of talent in Pasta, Bergeron, Marchand, Krecji, and that wealth of talent makes the whole of the top 2 lines better. McDavid and Draisaitl have essentially carried the Oilers on their backs for 7 years with lots of questionable pieces around them.

I don't much about Fenwick, but I don't put much stock in Corsi. It's basic premise is sound in that more shots=more goals based on a team/player's shooting %, but at the end of the day it still comes down to goal differential. Shot differential doesn't relate closely enough to goal differential. When you compare Corsi to +/- it looks like rocket science, but it's still only has an r-squared around .10 for explaining wins (although I last checked that back in 2014 while having this same argument about its validity with a friend, so who knows if they've refined it since then). Goal differential itself has an r-squared in the range of .98....so almost exactly correlated.


If you're looking at the long term success of a team, Bill's position is a bit more justified choosing a player like Bergeron. He's quite correct that Bergeron is still playing defensive hockey at a very high level. Will Connor McDavid be scoring at an elite level late into his thirties? Unlikely. But as a GM you'd be gambling that a) your defensive star player is still with your team and injury free throughout their career; b) they can stop more chances than the star scoring player can create on avg. through each respective career; and c) the star scoring player doesn't ever learn to play any semblance of responsible hockey which would essentially nullify any benefits to selecting the perennial Selke nominee (or winner, in Bergeron's case). 

[SchecterShredder]

To follow up lol:

"Another issue is that Corsi does little to capture the ability of an NHL superstar to influence the game. Ending with the 2020-2021 regular season and only looking at 5v5 stats, Connor McDavid has been on the ice for 6776 Corsi for events and 397 goals for. Meanwhile a more average fourth liner Pierre-Edouard Bellemare has been on the ice for 4663 Corsi for events and 143 Goals for. This translates to a 5.86% vs 3.07% Corsi Shooting percentage when McDavid is on ice vs when Bellemare is on ice.[7][8] Thus, caution needs to be taken when trying to draw too many conclusions about a player's ability from their Corsi stats."

[gmillerdrake]

The question was "who would you start your team with".  I'm starting a team to WIN HOCKEY GAMES

Again.....if that is the case then there is no earthly scenario where you don't pick McDavid first. At all. You win games by scoring more goals than the other team. You can 'teach' defense.....you can 'teach' team strategy.....you can get by and succeed and win cups with above average goalies.....what you can't do is teach or coach the hockey IQ and pure hockey sense and skill that McDavid has. No trackable stat or any of this other BS can capture it.

I wasn't or didn't 'dog' Bergeron either or crap in his Cheerios. I'm only stating the obvious that there's no world where when all things being equal and you were dead serious about building a team that he is chosen before McDavid. Even if it were his 'prime' years.....it's McDavid every time. He's a generational talent.....there are a dozen 'Bergeron's' in the league at any given time.

It's just silly to try and even debate this. You can suggest it's an opinion and I guess that's fine but the hypothetical question that was posed.....there's only one answer to it.