I literally look at the games and pick who I think is better, takes me less than 2 minutes to make all the picks.
I wouldn't consider myself "good at this", but I'm in the same boat. The more I think, the more trouble I get in. Having said that, though, I DO follow football, so I know, roughly, what's the what. My heart is in Arizona, I love watching them play, and I picked them last week against Buffalo, but I knew going in that even though Seattle isn't the beast at home that they have been, they were at home and I'm not sure I want to play against a Russell Wilson/Pete Carroll/DK Metcalf that has something to prove and with the division on the line, coupled with some clear (to me) signs that the Cardinals are not a hardened, disciplined team (yet). So I took as long as it took to click the box and hit save, but it wasn't a pure guess.
Something Bart has said before, though: ANY GIVEN SUNDAY. You HAVE to take the emotion out of it. You can only do so much; you still have to have both teams snapping the football for 60 minutes. NE/Baltimore last week was a good example; you'd have to have that hot chick from Game Of Thrones to see the future to see some of that game playing out (and the way the weather played a role).
I think I get too cute trying to fish out the upsets.
The kiss of death for me.
EDIT: In all sincerity, and meaning people I personally know or have been in leagues with, Bart is probably the best I've seen at this. There are far too many occasions for it to be pure chance that the group has all gone one way and Bart's gone the other, and been right. That's borne out by the fact that he needs more shelving for the league trophies (It's like reading Super Bowl champions; there are others in there, but all seemingly random, and every one or two out of three reads "Patriots")