2019 NFL Thread v. Chiefs are Champs, Missouri rules the sports world

[kaos2900]

On paper, this should be one of the best Super Bowls ever.

[pg1067]

Fun fact: in the last 19 Super Bowls, the team with the better QB (at that point in time) is 7-12. In other words, recent history is not on the side of Mahomes.

Wait a minute..."better" according to whom or what metric?

Who was the "better" QB...

As between Brady and Jared Goff in 2019?

As between Peyton Manning and Cam Newton in 2016?

As between Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson in 2014?

As between Kapernick and Flacco in 2013?

As between Rodgers and Roethlisberger in 2011?

As between Brees and Peyton Manning in 2010?

As between Trent Dilfer and Kerry Collins in 2001?

^That is a "fun" fact.  But, honestly, I hate stats like that that don't really correlate to anything.  None of those teams are these two teams, so that doesn't mean anything.

Yeah...it's sort of how, in 1998, "everyone" said the Broncos couldn't possibly beat the Packers because the NFC had defeated the AFC in 13 straight games and 15 of 16.

[bosk1]

I guess maybe what I should have said is that, while it is a fun fact, it isn't necessarily predictive of anything.

[axeman90210]

I think that fun fact is more an artifact of a small sample size than anything else.

[KevShmev]

I bolded the winning QB of the Super Bowl:

In 2000, Kerry Collins was better than Trent Dilfer
In 2001, Kurt Warner was better than Tom Brady
In 2002, Rich Gannon was better than Brad Johnson
In 2003, Tom Brady was better than Jake Delhomme
In 2004, Donovan McNabb was better than Tom Brady
In 2005, Matt Hasselbeck was better than Ben Roethlisberger
In 2006, Peyton Manning was better than Rex Grossman
In 2007, Tom Brady was better than Eli Manning
In 2008, Kurt Warner was better than Ben Roethlisberger
In 2009, Peyton Manning was better than Drew Brees
In 2010, Aaron Rodgers was better than Ben Roethlisberger
In 2011, Tom Brady was better than Eli Manning
In 2012, Colin Kaepernick was better than Joe Flacco
In 2013, Peyton Manning was better than Russell Wilson
In 2014, Tom Brady was better than Russell Wilson
In 2015, Cam Newton was better than Peyton Manning
In 2016, Matt Ryan was better than Tom Brady
In 2017, Tom Brady was better than Nick Foles
In 2018, Tom Brady was better than Jarred Goff

Looks I have it as 5-14 (not 7-12) for the better QB.  Note that if one of the QB's was the MVP of the season, they were by default the better QB that season.

[DragonAttack]

Yeah...it's sort of how, in 1998, "everyone" said the Broncos couldn't possibly beat the Packers because the NFC had defeated the AFC in 13 straight games and 15 of 16.

Oy.....when the ONLY thing that made the games worth watching (for the most part) in the 4th quarter was whether you had a chance to, or won a square in the office pool.  This century has been quite the turnaround 90% of the time.

[pg1067]

I bolded the winning QB of the Super Bowl:

In 2000, Kerry Collins was better than Trent Dilfer
In 2001, Kurt Warner was better than Tom Brady
In 2002, Rich Gannon was better than Brad Johnson
In 2003, Tom Brady was better than Jake Delhomme
In 2004, Donovan McNabb was better than Tom Brady
In 2005, Matt Hasselbeck was better than Ben Roethlisberger
In 2006, Peyton Manning was better than Rex Grossman
In 2007, Tom Brady was better than Eli Manning
In 2008, Kurt Warner was better than Ben Roethlisberger
In 2009, Peyton Manning was better than Drew Brees
In 2010, Aaron Rodgers was better than Ben Roethlisberger
In 2011, Tom Brady was better than Eli Manning
In 2012, Colin Kaepernick was better than Joe Flacco
In 2013, Peyton Manning was better than Russell Wilson
In 2014, Tom Brady was better than Russell Wilson
In 2015, Cam Newton was better than Peyton Manning
In 2016, Matt Ryan was better than Tom Brady
In 2017, Tom Brady was better than Nick Foles
In 2018, Tom Brady was better than Jarred Goff

Looks I have it as 5-14 (not 7-12) for the better QB.  Note that if one of the QB's was the MVP of the season, they were by default the better QB that season.

I think the more "fun fact" might be that teams with a league or conference MVP have been utterly abysmal in the Super Bowl.  The last nine league MVPs' teams that made the Super Bowl have lost:

52:  Brady's Patriots lost
51:  Ryan's Falcons lost
50:  Newton's Panthers lost
48:  Peyton Manning's Broncos lost
44:  Peyton Manning's Colts lost
42:  Brady's Patriots lost
40:  Shaun Alexander's Seahawks lost
37:  Gannon's Raiders lost
36.  Marshall Faulk's Rams lost


League MVPs in the 1990s fared significantly better, with their teams going 5-1 in the Super Bowl:

1999:  Kurt Warner won MVP, and the Rams won SB 34
1998:  Terrell Davis won MVP, and the Broncos won SB 33
1996:  Bret Fahvray won MVP, and the Packers won SB 31
1994:  Steve Young won MVP, and the 49ers won SB 29
1993:  Emmett Smith won MVP, and the Cowboys won SB 28
1991:  Thurman Thomas won MVP, and the Bills lost SB 26


Prior to that (and excluding the four pre-merger Super Bowls), a team having the league MVP (or, for the period from 1970-79, one or both conference MVPs) made the Super Bowl 12 times (only once, in SB 7, did both conference MVPs' teams make it).  Those teams went 4-8:

1989:  Joe Montana won MVP, and the 49ers won SB 24
1988:  Boomer Esiason won MVP (seriously?!), and the Bengals lost SB 23
1987:  John Elway won MVP, and the Broncos lost SB 22
1984:  Dan Marino won MVP, and the Dolphins lost SB 19
1982:  Mark Moseley won MVP (seriously?!), and the Redskins won SB 17
1981:  Ken Anderson won MVP, and the Bengals lost SB 16
1977:  Craig Morton won AFC MVP, and the Broncos lost SB 12
1976:  Ken Stabler won AFC MVP, and the Raiders won SB 11
1974:  Chuck Foreman won NFC MVP, and the Vikings lost SB 9
1972:  Earl Morrall won AFC MVP, and his Dolphins defeated NFC MVP Larry Brown's Redskins in SB 7
1971:  Bob Griese won AFC MVP, and the Dolphins lost SB 6


Putting all that together, for the seasons leading up to Super Bowls 4-53, 27 teams featuring a league/conference MVP made the Super Bowl.  Those teams went 9-18 (.333 winning percentage) in the Super Bowl!  And, if you exclude the 1990s, league MVPs' teams have a .190 winning percentage in the Super Bowl!

Won't be adding to those stats one way or the other this year, but these numbers are pretty staggering!

[Stadler]

Did we decide how "better" was determined? 

[Dream Team]

Did we decide how "better" was determined?

Opinion

[TAC]

I bolded the winning QB of the Super Bowl:

In 2000, Kerry Collins was better than Trent Dilfer
In 2001, Kurt Warner was better than Tom Brady
In 2002, Rich Gannon was better than Brad Johnson
In 2003, Tom Brady was better than Jake Delhomme
In 2004, Donovan McNabb was better than Tom Brady
In 2005, Matt Hasselbeck was better than Ben Roethlisberger
In 2006, Peyton Manning was better than Rex Grossman
In 2007, Tom Brady was better than Eli Manning
In 2008, Kurt Warner was better than Ben Roethlisberger
In 2009, Peyton Manning was better than Drew Brees
In 2010, Aaron Rodgers was better than Ben Roethlisberger
In 2011, Tom Brady was better than Eli Manning
In 2012, Colin Kaepernick was better than Joe Flacco
In 2013, Peyton Manning was better than Russell Wilson
In 2014, Tom Brady was better than Russell Wilson
In 2015, Cam Newton was better than Peyton Manning
In 2016, Matt Ryan was better than Tom Brady
In 2017, Tom Brady was better than Nick Foles
In 2018, Tom Brady was better than Jarred Goff

 

[KevShmev]

I think the more "fun fact" might be that teams with a league or conference MVP have been utterly abysmal in the Super Bowl.  The last nine league MVPs' teams that made the Super Bowl have lost:

52:  Brady's Patriots lost
51:  Ryan's Falcons lost
50:  Newton's Panthers lost
48:  Peyton Manning's Broncos lost
44:  Peyton Manning's Colts lost
42:  Brady's Patriots lost
40:  Shaun Alexander's Seahawks lost
37:  Gannon's Raiders lost
36.  Marshall Faulk's Rams lost

Warner was the MVP the season of SB36, not Faulk, but the point still remains.  It's still pretty crazy to see how many times the league MVP has gotten to the Super Bowl this century only to lose.

[cramx3]

From twitter:

Tom Brady
@TomBrady
·
1h
Congratulations on your retirement, and a great career Eli! Not going to lie though, I wish you hadn’t won any Super Bowls.

  Cheers to Eli from a Giants fan.  I have much respect for him and his time here, plus his graceful exit as was always with him, he was a respectful guy.  The way it should be done.  I may be wearing blue and white, but I do think he is a borderline HOFer. 

[Grappler]

I got to see Eli play once when I went to a Bears game vs. the Giants in Chicago a number of years ago.  I've always liked him.  I went to college with Dave Diehl, who was on the Giants' o-line and blocked for Eli for a long time before his retirement as well.

Pulling for the 49ers in the Super Bowl.  I usually always root for the NFC team, though this time it's a bit more special.  Garoppolo went to my high school, graduating 12 years after I did.  The local media is in a frenzy, doing all sorts of stories with the coaches at the high school and people in town.  That's pretty neat to see, and it would be awesome to watch him lead a team to victory as a starter.

[pg1067]

I think the more "fun fact" might be that teams with a league or conference MVP have been utterly abysmal in the Super Bowl.  The last nine league MVPs' teams that made the Super Bowl have lost:

52:  Brady's Patriots lost
51:  Ryan's Falcons lost
50:  Newton's Panthers lost
48:  Peyton Manning's Broncos lost
44:  Peyton Manning's Colts lost
42:  Brady's Patriots lost
40:  Shaun Alexander's Seahawks lost
37:  Gannon's Raiders lost
36.  Marshall Faulk's Rams lost

Warner was the MVP the season of SB36, not Faulk, but the point still remains.  It's still pretty crazy to see how many times the league MVP has gotten to the Super Bowl this century only to lose.

Oops.  I mis-read what I was looking at.  Faulk won it the next two years (the years preceding 35 and 36.

[Stadler]

From twitter:

Tom Brady
@TomBrady
·
1h
Congratulations on your retirement, and a great career Eli! Not going to lie though, I wish you hadn’t won any Super Bowls.

  Cheers to Eli from a Giants fan.  I have much respect for him and his time here, plus his graceful exit as was always with him, he was a respectful guy.  The way it should be done.  I may be wearing blue and white, but I do think he is a borderline HOFer.

I'm a huge fan of Eli, the player, and Eli the man.  I love the class and dignity he showed through thick and thin.   I think, ultimately, he's in the Hall Of Fame.

[hefdaddy42]

I think Eli will wind up in the Hall of Fame, but I'm not sure that he actually deserves it.

*shrugs*

[pg1067]

Excluding his first and last seasons, Eli Manning was, if nothing else, a model of consistency.  From 2005-18, he was the starting QB in all but one of the games played by the Giants.  He had 7 winning seasons over that span, 5 losing seasons and 2 .500 seasons.  Over all his seasons, his W-L record was 117-117.  He was a 4-time Pro Bowler and never was an All Pro.  I didn't do any sort of comparative analysis, but his numbers seem no better than above average, and he was absolutely never the best QB in the NFL.

Manning's teams made the playoffs six times.  In the four non-Super Bowl seasons, his team was one-and-out each time.

So...here's a question...for those who think he should be in the HOF, would you still feel that way if the Giants had only won one of the two Super Bowls against the Patriots?  If they Giants had lost both of those games?  If the Giants had, e.g., lost in the NFCCG?

The rings are nice, but....

[Dream Team]

There's an inherent logical flaw in this approach of who was the better QB each year. It's a tricky point, but it has to do with STATS vs ABILITY. Let's use this season as a first example. Who was better, Tannehill or Mahomes? The stats say Tannehill was better - best passer rating in the league, better completion % and yards per attempt. But who do we KNOW is actually better? How about Tannehill vs Brady. The stats say Tannehill was much better this year, but who would you trust with the game on the line? Kev, a Broncos fan, cites Cam Newton as better than Peyton Manning in 2015. Again, which of the 2 would you trust with the game on the line, Manning's diminished arm strength not withstanding?

How about Hasselbeck vs Roethlisberger 2005? Ben only threw 295 passes that year, so it's hard to gauge - but on a per-play basis, he was actually 2nd to Manning that year in success rate and better than Hasselbeck. And of course, which of the two is the actual Hall of Famer? In 2008, an injury-riddled season for Ben was the 2nd worst of his career - but his ABILITY at the time was still great, and in fact he proved that on the game-winning drive vs Warner. The point is, a QB's actual real ABILITY is a separate issue from his stats in that one particular season, it's a small sample size that doesn't tell the whole story.

Long-winded way of saying it's very problematic to say the best QB in the Super Bowl hasn't won much lately. Yes in 2016 Matt Ryan's stats were better than Brady's - but that means we're discounting 2015 and 2017 stats which are wholly relevant to whose ABILITY was actually better in 2016. Who proved who was actually better in the 2nd half of that Super Bowl? In this millenium, the better QB usually won unless he was going against a HISTORICALLY great defense - 2000 Ravens, 2002 Bucs, 2013 Seahawks, etc; in those cases I agree with Kev in that in those cases it doesn't matter who the best QB was.

Ultimately of course it's all convoluted nonsense anyway as it is still very much a TEAM game. The QB doesn't play defense or special teams. Whichever TEAM plays best as a whole usually wins. Not saying anything there people don't already know.

[El Barto]

I've always thought Eli was a standup guy. It's his father that's the douchebag. As for the HOF, it'll take him a long while if he gets in. He might, but I wouldn't bet on it. He's not going to get in in the first couple of years, and after that the shine will start to wear off. Looking back at him in 20 years does he look like a HOFer?

[Stadler]

Excluding his first and last seasons, Eli Manning was, if nothing else, a model of consistency.  From 2005-18, he was the starting QB in all but one of the games played by the Giants.  He had 7 winning seasons over that span, 5 losing seasons and 2 .500 seasons.  Over all his seasons, his W-L record was 117-117.  He was a 4-time Pro Bowler and never was an All Pro.  I didn't do any sort of comparative analysis, but his numbers seem no better than above average, and he was absolutely never the best QB in the NFL.

Manning's teams made the playoffs six times.  In the four non-Super Bowl seasons, his team was one-and-out each time.

So...here's a question...for those who think he should be in the HOF, would you still feel that way if the Giants had only won one of the two Super Bowls against the Patriots?  If they Giants had lost both of those games?  If the Giants had, e.g., lost in the NFCCG?

The rings are nice, but....

You know my answer.  I'm in the minority, but I think the sole objective in the NFL is to win football games.   He won the biggest game of the year, twice, and was the MVP of both of those games.  It would very much be a different conversation if he didn't win those, but he did, so that's what we work off.  I can't pretend that Marino won two when looking at his numbers, so the same should apply here.

[axeman90210]

I'm a Jets fan and I'm not anti-Giants or Eli (anybody who beats the Pats in the Super Bowl endears themselves to me greatly), but I don't think he deserves to go into the Hall and I don't think he's just off by a hair either. He was a good quarterback (for the most part) for a long number of years, he got hot twice in the playoffs on teams that also had very good defenses, and by all accounts he is an absolute class act/stand-up guy. He's a first ballot (unanimous even ) entrant into the Hall of Very Good. For me though, to be worthy of the Hall of Fame you have to be one of the very best at your position for at least a stretch of your career. Can anybody look back and ever say there weren't at least five other QBs in the league who you would've rather had on your team than him? QB rating isn't everything, but he only cracked top 10 in the league for QBR once, and even that one season he was like 8th. The Athletic had a roundtable discussion on his legacy the other day and one of the writers dropped some stats that I think better illustrate this: If you remove his rookie season and 2019 and look at 2005-2018, there were 66 QBs who attempted at least 1,000 passes. Among those QBs Eli ranks 42nd in completion percentage, 29th in yards per attempt, and 48th in interception percentage. He was very durable, so some of his spots on the alltime list look impressive because of the proliferation of passing stats in the modern NFL, but they certainly won't as a few more years go by.

I don't agree with putting too much stock in wins when evaluating a QB, but even if you want to go down that road Eli's career record is something like 111-103, barely above 500. I don't think he won a single playoff game outside of those two seasons. The SB wins are nice (again, I hate the Pats, they're really nice), but to me SB wins is something to push in a candidate whose overall individual performance is borderline. I don't see how you can look at Eli's numbers in the context of the era he played in and say he was one of the great QBs of his time.

[King Postwhore]

It's funny.  I think it's who he beat that endures most to say he's a HOF.

His brother was a HOF even if he didn't win that 2nd SB
 

[hefdaddy42]

Peyton had the kind of career that would have assured the HOF with or without SB wins.

Eli certainly did not.  He wasn't an all-time great (which is what the HOF should celebrate), he just caught lightning in a bottle twice.

[King Postwhore]

Oh I agree.  I think the 2 SB wins is what everybody talks about because of who they beat.  Jim Plunket has 2 SB wins but he's not in.

[axeman90210]

I think ultimately Eli will get in because he played in the biggest market in the country for one of the oldest franchises in the sport and his last name is Manning. If he had a different last name and did what he did in St. Louis instead of NY I don't think people would really be talking about him being HOF worthy.

[cramx3]

Excluding his first and last seasons, Eli Manning was, if nothing else, a model of consistency.  From 2005-18, he was the starting QB in all but one of the games played by the Giants.  He had 7 winning seasons over that span, 5 losing seasons and 2 .500 seasons.  Over all his seasons, his W-L record was 117-117.  He was a 4-time Pro Bowler and never was an All Pro.  I didn't do any sort of comparative analysis, but his numbers seem no better than above average, and he was absolutely never the best QB in the NFL.

Manning's teams made the playoffs six times.  In the four non-Super Bowl seasons, his team was one-and-out each time.

So...here's a question...for those who think he should be in the HOF, would you still feel that way if the Giants had only won one of the two Super Bowls against the Patriots?  If they Giants had lost both of those games?  If the Giants had, e.g., lost in the NFCCG?

The rings are nice, but....

I think doing it twice shows it was more than just a fluke helmet catch.  Also, having watched all those games during those seasons when Eli was really a good QB and the teams as a whole were solid, Eli showed plenty of the ability to win games on his own.  For awhile he was clutch in comebacks.  He was also Super Bowl MVP both times supporting the idea that this guy was big in big moments (for a time, this did fade).

As for other stats if we want to go more into it:

7th all time in passing yards
7th all time in passing touchdowns (likely passed within a game or two next season by Aaron Rodgers though)

Never missed a game due to injury (I don't know how much this counts, but the ironman aspect of him is pretty impressive even if this really doesn't matter much for HOF)
2016 Walter Payton Man of the year (also not sure how much this weighs into anything, but it shows he's respected)

I do think he is borderline, and it probably does help being a well liked guy in the biggest market. 

[KevShmev]

I think the more "fun fact" might be that teams with a league or conference MVP have been utterly abysmal in the Super Bowl.  The last nine league MVPs' teams that made the Super Bowl have lost:

52:  Brady's Patriots lost
51:  Ryan's Falcons lost
50:  Newton's Panthers lost
48:  Peyton Manning's Broncos lost
44:  Peyton Manning's Colts lost
42:  Brady's Patriots lost
40:  Shaun Alexander's Seahawks lost
37:  Gannon's Raiders lost
36.  Marshall Faulk's Rams lost

Warner was the MVP the season of SB36, not Faulk, but the point still remains.  It's still pretty crazy to see how many times the league MVP has gotten to the Super Bowl this century only to lose.

Oops.  I mis-read what I was looking at.  Faulk won it the next two years (the years preceding 35 and 36.

No, no.

Warner won the MVP in 1999 (the year they won Super Bowl 34).
Faulk won the MVP in 2000 (the year the Rams lost in the first round).
Warner won the MVP again in 2001 (the year they lost to NE in Super Bowl 36).

Talking the AP here, which is the one everyone looks at when discussing MVP awards.

[pg1067]

You know my answer.  I'm in the minority, but I think the sole objective in the NFL is to win football games.   He won the biggest game of the year, twice, and was the MVP of both of those games..

Yeah, but...

He lost as many games as he won, and...

Oh I agree.  I think the 2 SB wins is what everybody talks about because of who they beat.  Jim Plunket has 2 SB wins but he's not in.

And there you have it.  If Eli is arguably a lock for the HOF, shouldn't Plunkett (also a .500 QB) be in?  Or, asked in the negative, why should Eli get in when Plunkett didn't make it?  Is it really because Eli won the MVP both times whereas Plunkett only won one?

[hefdaddy42]

Valid.

[cramx3]

Over twice as many passing TDs and over twice as many passing yards as Plunkett. Different eras but not sure the eras amount to double the stats. But this is why he is borderline as it's the two wins and mvps that distinguish him over the rest of the borderline HOF QBs

[hefdaddy42]

Over twice as many passing TDs and over twice as many passing yards as Plunkett. Different eras but not sure the eras amount to double the stats. But this is why he is borderline as it's the two wins and mvps that distinguish him over the rest of the borderline HOF QBs

I disagree.  They distinguish him from the other QBs who won't make the HOF, not borderline guys.

Without the SB runs, his career is incredibly average, albeit certainly durable and long-lasting (which is what lands him on those career stats lists).  His W-L record was 117-117, he was never, not ONCE, considered among the 3-4 best QBs in the league at any point, he never received one vote for MVP (not a VOTE - Chad Pennington finished second for MVP one year, FFS, but Eli never received any votes), and IIRC, he actually led the league in interceptions 3 separate times.

To me, it's open and shut - he doesn't belong.  But I still think he will wind up there.

[KevShmev]

I wouldn't put Eli in, but his two Super Bowl MVP awards, having played in NY, and his last name will all combine to get him in sooner probably rather than later.  Basically, two drives are getting him in the Hall of Fame (the final drives of both Super Bowls). The offense scored 17 (17-14 win) and 19 (21-17 win, the defense scored a safety) points in those games, but all most remember are the final drives.

[TAC]

David Tyree's helmet should be in the HOF.

[Stadler]

You know my answer.  I'm in the minority, but I think the sole objective in the NFL is to win football games.   He won the biggest game of the year, twice, and was the MVP of both of those games..

Yeah, but...

He lost as many games as he won, and...

Oh I agree.  I think the 2 SB wins is what everybody talks about because of who they beat.  Jim Plunket has 2 SB wins but he's not in.

And there you have it.  If Eli is arguably a lock for the HOF, shouldn't Plunkett (also a .500 QB) be in?  Or, asked in the negative, why should Eli get in when Plunkett didn't make it?  Is it really because Eli won the MVP both times whereas Plunkett only won one?

You didn't ask me about Plunkett.  I think he should be in.

To the point of "would you rather have Eli on your team over the rest of the QBs in the league" (I think Axeman asked that), and the answer is, I would.  Who would I take over him?  Brady, Brees, Manning, Warner, Rogers, (all who are or will be in the Hall Of Fame, given) but who after that?  MAYBE Roethslisberger.  MAYBE Wilson.  Not taking Newton, not taking Ryan, not taking Rivers, certainly not taking McNabb or Romo.  Rex Grossman? 

And by the way, there CAN be more than one or even a handful of "great" QBs, and that's skewed here because you have arguably the greatest of all time and his closest competitor in that time frame.  We didn't keep Kelly out because we already had Montana and Elway and Marino...  That I would take Brady over Eli every day of the week and twice on Sunday says more about BRADY than it does about Eli.

[TAC]

I think I assumed Plunkett was in.