I disagree with most of your points. For me, Insurgentes (my favorite SW solo album) isn't really that different, it's just a very good amalgamation of all of SWs prior projects. There is some Bass Communion, No-Man, PT and Blackfield through the album though it's far more cohesive than one could expect from such different types of music.
On the other hand, I feel TRTRTS is a lot more innovative. When I listen to songs like Luminol or The Holy Drinker I really can't find anything comparable from SW's other projects - I don't think he has ever done anything so clearly 70's prog with no hints of pop, metal or ambient at all. It might not be innovative music, but I would definitely say it's innovative in the scope of his catalog.
Regarding GfD I'm on the fence really. I don't find it as innovative as TRTRTS but I also think he explored some new territory with songs like Raider II.
I think you bring up a good point with Insurgentes, but I feel like he made something new with elements he had only explored on the surface before. There's some Bass Communion and IEM on Insurgentes for sure, but with that album he took his darker influences and presented them in a really fresh way. Tracks like Harmony Korine or the title track could have been slightly re-arranged and worked as PT or Blackfield songs, but he really made something brand new with tracks like Salvaging, Get All You Deserve or Abandoner IMO, things I hadn't really heard from him before. Sure, influences from his more obscure projects, but never presented like this, and with interesting vocals as well.
Regarding Raven, we've had the discussion before about Raven being similar to GfD. We don't need to go down that road again, some people think Raven is totally different, others like me feel like Raven continues down the path GfD started. While 70's prog rock has been a major influence for Steven Wilson since the beginning (albums like Up the Downstair, The Sky Moves Sideways, Signify) it has resurfaced again with GfD and Raven. My comment as for it being predictable comes more from an overall view on the genre itself. Reverting back to a more traditional sound with the roots in 70's prog rock has been a trend, and apart from SW you also have bands like Opeth and Pain of Salvation doing similar things. It's just the direction the genre has been going lately, and it's also very popular, both from a fan perspective, but also because many of these bands are in that age where they grew up with 70's prog rock, and it's very likely to shrine through in their music.
Since the new album is not out yet, we don't quite know what direction it will take, apart from a few brief samples, but the progressive element which has been featured heavily on Grace For Drowning and Raven seems intact, with a refreshing variety of some softer songs as well. As for Raven, it's such a fascinating album for me. I would give it an 8.5 or maybe even 9 out of 10, but I still have a weird stance on it. Musically it's a fantastic album, but I think predictable or familiar are good words. Again, not that SW has done this a million times before, but in this day and age and looking at where Prog Rock as a genre is, it's kinda the norm to make a 70's influenced album. I pretty much expect it, after seeing several of my favorite Prog Rock bands go down that road. But as he has shown us in the past, he tends to shift gears after a few years or so.