Your Controversial Opinions on DT

[BlobVanDam]

Interesting graph. Anyone want to extrapolate those peaks and predict the point where DT will apparently be playing bingo halls? In a couple of years you'll either be hailed as a prog Nostrodamus, or seen as useless as the real Nostrodamus!

[GPedrosa]

You Not Me isn't bad.
FII is Dream Theater's 4th best album.
The Answer Lies Within and I Walk Beside You are the best songs on Octavarium.
When Dream and Day Unite is a good album.
Voices is my second least favorite song on Awake.
Lie is awesome.
Pull Me Under is actually underrated among DT fans.
SDOIT is overrated.
The sound clips in Home get on my nerves.

Who the fuck says Lie ISN'T awesome?

[robwebster]

Keep in mind that's a graph of message board usage, not a graph of being a fan. The Google one, meanwhile, shows a drop between Octavarium and Systematic Chaos, which we know for a fact does not represent the greater fanbase - so what are they really measuring?

It's more likely that message boards are dying. People are going to Twitter, Facebook, Tumblr - when you want to have a discussion about Dream Theater, you don't type "dream theater" into Google and see if there's any cool communities, you just launch your favourite app and start talking about Dream Theater - myself included! The minute DT12 came out, I fucked off for five months, my initial reactions are all on Twitter, and Facebook chat. We're living in an age where the discussion comes to us. There's still a place for message boards, but they're ever more niche.

There's an interesting conversation to be had, but it's one about how we curate online narratives. Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm off to plot a graph of mIRC usage statistics that prove Vice City was the last great Grand Theft Auto game.

[BlobVanDam]

You Not Me isn't bad.
FII is Dream Theater's 4th best album.
The Answer Lies Within and I Walk Beside You are the best songs on Octavarium.
When Dream and Day Unite is a good album.
Voices is my second least favorite song on Awake.
Lie is awesome.
Pull Me Under is actually underrated among DT fans.
SDOIT is overrated.
The sound clips in Home get on my nerves.

Who the fuck says Lie ISN'T awesome?

Me. It's awful. Terrible lyrics, phoned in vocals, generic riffing etc.

[GPedrosa]

You Not Me isn't bad.
FII is Dream Theater's 4th best album.
The Answer Lies Within and I Walk Beside You are the best songs on Octavarium.
When Dream and Day Unite is a good album.
Voices is my second least favorite song on Awake.
Lie is awesome.
Pull Me Under is actually underrated among DT fans.
SDOIT is overrated.
The sound clips in Home get on my nerves.

Who the fuck says Lie ISN'T awesome?

Me. It's awful. Terrible lyrics, phoned in vocals, generic riffing etc.

*goes to bed crying*

[Rodni Demental]

[/completelynontopicrelated]

I'm off to plot a graph of mIRC usage statistics that prove Vice City was the last great Grand Theft Auto game.

It was definitely more fun than IV and V depite those being video game blockbuster juggernauts that were technically more advanced, I still rekon SA was the pinnacle of fun GTA games.


Anyway, yeah sorry, Lie might almost be KMs worst effort.  It's kinda fun wordplay but I can't take it very seriously. (although maybe that was the idea ).

[GPedrosa]

[/completelynontopicrelated]

I'm off to plot a graph of mIRC usage statistics that prove Vice City was the last great Grand Theft Auto game.

It was definitely more fun than IV and V depite the former two being video game blockbuster juggernauts that were technically more advanced, I still rekon SA was the pinnacle of fun GTA games.

Of course it was. As great as Lie. 

[Rodni Demental]

I dunno if Lie could hold my attention for as long as GTA:SA.. I'd probably have been driven insane if I tried to make it last that long.. OR it'd make me love it finally?

[BlobVanDam]

Lie and GTA:SA are both terrible.

[Rodni Demental]

Lie and GTA:SA are both terrible.

Could I recommend making a custom playlist with Lie, Lie (demo), Lie (single edit), loop while completing SA. It's obviously the only way to appreciate both.

[robwebster]

It's all about the Steve Tushar Remix.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pz3KD7RAmZE

[BlobVanDam]

Lie and GTA:SA are both terrible.

Could I recommend making a custom playlist with Lie, Lie (demo), Lie (single edit), loop while completing SA. It's obviously the only way to appreciate both.

Good god, the only thing missing is a car battery connected to my nads. I didn't think that kind of torture was legal!

[GPedrosa]

You guys are making me feel crazy. It's 04:26 AM here and it's cold. I'm going to sleep.  See ya guys. 

[GPedrosa]

It's all about the Steve Tushar Remix.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pz3KD7RAmZE

Holy crap. This is good.

[Bolsters]

It's all about the Steve Tushar Remix.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pz3KD7RAmZE

[Rodni Demental]

Lie and GTA:SA are both terrible.

Could I recommend making a custom playlist with Lie, Lie (demo), Lie (single edit), loop while completing SA. It's obviously the only way to appreciate both.

Good god, the only thing missing is a car battery connected to my nads. I didn't think that kind of torture was legal!

I think it might have been legal before you added that last part. But you know, whatever you want to enhance the experience. 

It's all about the Steve Tushar Remix.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pz3KD7RAmZE

[BlobVanDam]

Lie and GTA:SA are both terrible.

Could I recommend making a custom playlist with Lie, Lie (demo), Lie (single edit), loop while completing SA. It's obviously the only way to appreciate both.

Good god, the only thing missing is a car battery connected to my nads. I didn't think that kind of torture was legal!

I think it might have been legal before you added that last part. But you know, whatever you want to enhance the experience. 

It's the only part of the experience I'm looking forward to!

[Rodni Demental]

It's the only part of the experience I'm looking forward to!

Haha, you might not need that sort of encouragement, it's probably too distracting  . But if it makes you realise what a masterpiece SA is then I'm all for it. And let me know how you feel about Lie afterwards..

Nah.. just jenkin ya, I wouldn't even try and make someone listen to it once let alone on repeat, I mean there's a limit.  

[wasteland]

Ticket prices have also gone down. In 2012 I saw them for $85, whereas the super-special Boston show recently went for $56.

I paid 46€ in 2012 and 52€ in 2014.

[rumborak]

Keep in mind that's a graph of message board usage, not a graph of being a fan. The Google one, meanwhile, shows a drop between Octavarium and Systematic Chaos, which we know for a fact does not represent the greater fanbase - so what are they really measuring?

It's more likely that message boards are dying. People are going to Twitter, Facebook, Tumblr - when you want to have a discussion about Dream Theater, you don't type "dream theater" into Google and see if there's any cool communities, you just launch your favourite app and start talking about Dream Theater - myself included! The minute DT12 came out, I fucked off for five months, my initial reactions are all on Twitter, and Facebook chat. We're living in an age where the discussion comes to us. There's still a place for message boards, but they're ever more niche.

There's an interesting conversation to be had, but it's one about how we curate online narratives. Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm off to plot a graph of mIRC usage statistics that prove Vice City was the last great Grand Theft Auto game.

There's definitely that aspect, but I don't think you can ascribe all the downward trend to it. The Google Trend graph really shows the same picture,  and bands like Porcupine Tree did not see the downward trend (they do now since they essentially disbanded, but up until then Google Trends was steady for them).

[robwebster]

Again, though - that's not representing how many people like them, it's how many people are searching for them - more likely to be rate of growth than size of fanbase. I'm trying to work out exactly what data we're gathering. Is it just the phrase dream theater, those exact words, or is it any search string containing the words Dream Theater?

I put in dream theater tour dates --



-- and it looks like it only pulls up results from the exact string. I think it's interesting data, just not quite sure what exactly we're looking at, and what - if anything, other than Google searches - it's actually measuring!

[rumborak]

Google Trends looks for exact string matches, yeah. But, I'm pretty sure that if you search "dream theater discography", that will show up in the "dream theater" trend too. It's just not the other way around, e.g. a search for "I have a dream" won't count towards DT.

Again, though - that's not representing how many people like them, it's how many people are searching for them - more likely to be rate of growth than size of fanbase.

I think what it shows is how many people are interested in them, in the sense of trying to find out information about them. I can see the argument that message boards are a dying form of communication, but I don't buy the argument that people stop using Google for the things they are interested in.

[robwebster]

I can see the argument that message boards are a dying form of communication, but I don't buy the argument that people stop using Google for the things they are interested in.

Good, I'd hope not, nor would I! But I think people gradually stop Googling the name of their favourite band. If it's just doing that individual search string a search for dream theater is more likely to signify rate of growth than size of fanbase. A new fan is very likely to google the phrase dream theater, an old one... not so much! More specific.

Case in point --



Muse weren't tiny in 2004, Absolution made a splash, but they weren't enormous, either. They'd played my town hall just three years hence - and three years later, they'd be playing Wembley Arena. They engorged, but that graph just shows a steady three year loop. I think it's more likely to represent steady growth than no real growth.

I would add that Google is no longer the only way that people look for things. Don't get me wrong, I agree, Google is still pretty much the beating heart of the internet, people haven't stopped using it, but it's less crucial to the way we engage with banal data. Five years ago I'd have Googled "Forsaken lyrics," now I'll click the "find lyrics" button in MediaMonkey.  Lots of people have been working very hard to beam data directly into our pockets.

[rumborak]

But I think people gradually stop Googling the name of their favourite band. If it's just doing that individual search string a search for dream theater is more likely to signify rate of growth than size of fanbase. A new fan is very likely to google the phrase dream theater, an old one... not so much!

I think the important distinction here is, not everybody is a fan. I agree, actual fans will have other ways of keeping up with their favorite bands. I think what Google Trends is showing are the casual person interested in Dream Theater. I definitely find myself googling Muse, Daft Punk or whatever, every time I learn that they did something new.

And even if, again, other bands don't show that *overall* decline. Your Muse graph, IMO, looks reasonably steady in its baseline. More telling I would say, check out A7X's graph: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F041f35
I think no matter how you slice it, DT is increasingly failing to mobilize the interest of casual fans. And that pretty much coincides with my personal experience. I still follow them, but none of my friends who used to follow DT are still doing so.

[Jaq]

Sure is a lot of confirmation bias in this thread 

[rumborak]

Probably, on both sides, yeah

I feel I'm drawing in more data though. The way it stands, DT's Google Trends graph is the odd one out (and is corroborated by DTF's posting stats), whereas rob's hypothesis of "expected googling decline" doesn't seem to hold water with other bands' trend graphs. Bands like A7X maintain a steady (or even increasing) number of search queries. So does Steven Wilson.

[robwebster]

Steven Wilson didn't exist as a solo musician until Insurgentes in 2009, so of course he's gone up, and A7X have been in steady decline since August 2010.

I agree something's reducing, I just don't think the Google Trends Graph is quite the fanometer you're suggesting. Doctor Who's TV ratings are sinking, but it's got nothing to do with popularity, and everything to do with the way people are consuming television - on iPlayer, it breaks record after record.

I'm sure I'm coming at this from a robwebster angle, but I don't think it's unscientific to go, "Hold up, how valid is that data, really?" rather than taking it as a direct feed from the interweb hive-mind.

[rumborak]

and A7X have been in steady decline since August 2010.

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F041f35

o_O?

That seems somewhat over-extrapolating it. Most of 2010-now is dominated by album spike+drop cycles, so it's hard to tell where the baseline is. When looking at the whole thing together, I would say they're at least holding steady, if not rising. In fact, when you take the low points to be the baseline, the lowest points have been on a steady rise. Very different to this: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F041f35%2C%20dream%20theater&cmpt=q

[robwebster]

and A7X have been in steady decline since August 2010.

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F041f35

o_O?

That seems somewhat over-extrapolating it. Most of 2010-now is dominated by album spike+drop cycles, so it's hard to tell where the baseline is. When looking at the whole thing together, I would say they're at least holding steady, if not rising. In fact, when you take the low points to be the baseline, the lowest points have been on a steady rise. Very different to this: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F041f35%2C%20dream%20theater&cmpt=q

Come on, man! But do you think they're shedding their fanbase over that period?

[bosk1]

Of course they are.  Album and concert ticket sales mean nothing.  It's all about the Googles, man.

[Sir Walrus Cauliflower]

I can't believe it hasn't dropped off farther after Hail To The King was released...

[lithium112]

I think the Google trend data might be a better assessment of the rate at which a band is accruing new fans. Not the overall number of fans they have. Once you're a fan of the band and have looked at their website or twitter/fb page or whatever, there's literally no reason to type that band's name by itself into Google. I haven't searched for DT since like 2006. In terms of overall popularity though... in my city their most recent show was in a venue twice the size of their previous one so looks like things are going pretty well!

[Rodni Demental]

I find it interesting that the search terms derive form fairly different types of searches, meaning the information people are looking for in their searches differs for each band, for example, the top search terms for A7X are: avenged, sevenfold, avenged sevenfold, a7x, avenged sevenfold lyrics, nightmare avenged, avenged sevenfold dear god, avenged sevenfold download .

Where as the top DT searches are: dream theater download, album dream theatre, youtube dream theatre, dream theater live, mp3 dream theatre, dream theater torrent, dream theater tab, dream theater tour, dream theater drummer.

Seems like A7X terms are inquiring about songs and lyrics where as the DT searches imply that a lot more musicians, pirates and Europeans are looking them up.  Also, there's no specific songs in the top searches, but rather a more general search for albums. Interestingly, the rising searches for DT are 'facebook, octavarium and wiki' where as the rising searches for A7X are 'nightmare, dear god, lagu', then more various 'nightmare' searches. They're totally stuck in a nightmare loop. But then after Hail To The King I'm not surprised people are pretending it didn't happen.. Okay now I'm getting too pompous but come on, HttK was a bit of let down.

The 2010 Spike was not long after the Rev died, and right during the release period of the much anticipated Nightmare album. Looks like they're on a decline at this point as far as google trends go, even if the baseline has been pushed a bit higher, this is most likely from the search trends skyrocketing after an event such as a band member dying. Which is probably a much bigger deal than a band member leaving.

I think google is as big as it's ever been and yet seeming not used as much these days because of changing technology, increased use of social networks etc. I wonder if there's a trend to represent that?

EDIT: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=google

Yeah, who knows what that means, despite the constant increase in searches, it's been on the decline since October last year. I draw from this that google must be on it's last legs and if they don't up their game they're going under. 

[Grizz]

Lie and GTA:SA are both terrible.

Why don't you push off, you crudfaced old bat?

---

Ticket prices have also gone down. In 2012 I saw them for $85, whereas the super-special Boston show recently went for $56.

2012 was a real spike stateside. I've complained about this before.

[TheGreatPretender]

But I think people gradually stop Googling the name of their favourite band. If it's just doing that individual search string a search for dream theater is more likely to signify rate of growth than size of fanbase. A new fan is very likely to google the phrase dream theater, an old one... not so much!

I think the important distinction here is, not everybody is a fan. I agree, actual fans will have other ways of keeping up with their favorite bands. I think what Google Trends is showing are the casual person interested in Dream Theater. I definitely find myself googling Muse, Daft Punk or whatever, every time I learn that they did something new.

Hence the spikes. But I do agree with rumbroak, now that he mentioned it. I have not googled "Dream Theater" by itself... Probably since 2009. Sometimes I google "Dream Theater discography" when I need to cross reference something or song and lyrics, or whatever. So yeah, if those graphs are actually showing, "How many people googled this exact combination of words" during those months, or whatever, then it could mean very little.


Also, I was just trying to see random DT trends, and this one I found particularly interesting:

https://www.google.ca/trends/explore#q=%22dream+theater+live%22