MP's hiatus-- what would it have done to DT's fame?

[Perpetual Change]

So, a couple weeks ago we got the first sales numbers from the A Dramatic Turn of Events sales. These numbers were very much in the same ball-park as the last couple album; aka, about the same as Systematic Chaos and Black Clouds & Silver Linings and most Dream Theater albums, as far as I know. That got me thinking: so much of Dream Theater's strategy for keeping their fan-base intact seems to have to do with making sure fans never have to go too long without anything new. As DT fans, we generally only seem to have to go a couple of months between the very last date of a tour (or DVD) and the announcement that a new record is in the works. From a business standpoint, this seems like a very smart move. The whole "album/tour/dvd/album" cycle we go through every two years seems to work wonders.

Looking back on the last 4 albums or so, however, I've gotta wonder how whether this strategy is actually contributing toward the band's increased success OR whether it's just been the thing keeping them from falling off. In order to answer that question, we've gotta be honest about how popular Dream Theater actually are and whether the common assumption that they're "getting more and more famous" is actually true. As a gauge, I'm gonna use the first week sales of the last four albums, courtesy of Blabbermouth.

A Dramatic Turn of Events= 36,000
Black Clouds & Silver Linings= 40,000
Systematic Chaos= 36,000
Octavarium= 27,000

Couple things I want to note about these numbers:

1.) From 8va-SC: If I remember correctly, the numbers simply refer to how many records were distrubuted, not necessarily how many were sold. So, it might not be that Systematic Chaos actually sold that many more records than 8va. It could just be that Roadrunner did much better job of getting the records in stores than the previous label. I'm not sure, so someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

2.) Even if there was a huge spike in DT's popularity between 8va and BC&SL (like, according to those numbers, nearly a 40 percent increase, which doesn't feel right as a fan), that spike seems to have more or less plataead back down with the new album. So, how do we explain that? Did DT briefly get like twice as popular during BC&SL days, or were RR just overly zealous about the amount of records they distributed for that album, thinking DT sales were getting better and better when they actually weren't-- a mistake which they corrected this time around by reverting to the SC distribution levels?

Did DT briefly get like twice as popular during BC&SL days?

Honestly, being a fan then and now, I really don't think so. Did they get slightly more popular? Sure. Did they get a lot more popular? No. Think of it this way-- on the Black Clouds tour, DT were failing to fill theaters some of which, to be blunt, were smaller or the same size as th the ones they had filled just a year earlier, or two years earlier when they sold out(?) Radio City Music Hall. The decline in ticket sales was noticeable enough that the tour was cancelled. How could that happen if the band were really in the best place they'd been in a long time, popularity-wise? Part of the problem obviously was the economy. Another part was people didn't want to see Progressive Nation. But could another reason be because the Black Clouds distribution numbers were a tad bit misleading?

I'm not trying to say Dream Theater aren't popular, or are going through hard times. What I'm getting at here is that I think the assumption that Dream Theater's popularity is increasing is probably not really true, at least not in a meaningful way. Given that, you've gotta wonder what a hiatus from the constant album/tour cycle would have done to their popularity. Personally, I think it might have caused them to fall-off completely. It might have helped the relationship between the members to improve, but at a dire price. One year off could have undone everything the band had worked at sustained over the last 10. I shudder to think what five may have done.

tl:dr: DT going on hiatus would have broken the business model that allows the band to remain at their current level of popularity, which is about the same as it's been over the last 5-10 years, and launched them irreversibly into obscurity.



EDIT: To be clear, I'm not posting this simply because Mike's here now and I want to bash the whole idea of a hiatus or anything like that. The "week one" sales of ADTOE provide a lot of food for thought, imo. We obviously didn't have them when Mike left, so it didn't get discussed then, but I think now it's pretty obvious that Dream Theater's popularity isn't on the sharp incline a lot of people had been expecting, making the notion of a hiatus seem all the more dire. That's not to say that they're in a bad place now either. All I'm saying is, it seems like they need to keep doing what they're doing to stay where they are, and the last album's sales kinda prove that.

[TheGreatPretender]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that within a couple of years, DT would've been considered, "The best Prog Metal band that once existed."
That or JP and JR would've started a new band, or done an LTE type thing (maybe without Portnoy, if he wanted a break from them), and ended up pursuing that full time. JLB would've ended up pursuing his solo career and probably making money off that, even if not as much as DT. And JM would've joined the first band that had the money to afford such a kick ass bassist.

[The Dark Master]

Concerning DT's popularity spike during the Systematic Chaos/BC&SL years, I belive that can be attributed to two major factors:

1:  Music Videos:  Say what you will about MTV, VH1, YouTube, and other such video outlets and the role they play in the distribution of music in the modern world, but for better or worse, music video completely changed the industry these days, and the only way to get mainstream exposure in the modern music business is to plaster you face all over MTV and it's ilk.  Dream Theater took a decade long hiatus from making music videos primarily as part of their quest to assert control over their own destiny by being less reliant on their record label (ie: not asking their label to pay for videos).  By Octavarium, they had pretty much reached the limit of how big a band can possibly be without a music video, relying purely on touring, word of mouth, and a modicum of radio airplay.  The decision by the band and their new label Roadrunner to return DT to the music video world was a massive boost to their mainstream exposure.  Thanks to the likes of YouTube, it is now much easier to get your videos to the masses then ever before, and with a hefty promotion push from RR, they band received the most mainstream attention they had in their careers since the Pull Me Under days.  The power of the music video is not to be underestimated, and since their return to video-making, Dream Theater have exploited it rather well.

2: Guitar Hero/Rock Band:  The explosion of music based video games in the mid-to-late 2000's introduced technique heavy guitar rock to a whole new generation of youth.  In fact, by presenting this sort of music though an interactive medium like a video game, the knowledge as skill associated to complex rock became a badge of honour.  Before 2005, I don't think many kids would have openly boasted about their familiarity with the likes of Dragonforce or Yngwie Malmsteen, but thanks to games like Rock Band and Guitar Hero, recording artists displaying a high degree of virtuosity suddenly became cool again for the first time since Nirvana.  Needless to say, Dream Theater, by actively placing their songs on such games, exposed themselves to a wide base of potential fans who may not have had any interest in them anyways.  Due to the interactive nature of the video game medium, as well as the competitive nature muti-player videos games themselves, establishing familiarity with DT's music not only became encouraged, but also grounds for bragging rights.

So in short, yes, they did achieve a higher degree of mainstream exposure during 2007-2010 then anything they have ever had since 1993.  However, consider this:  mainstream exposure is not the same thing as popularity.  Just because more people know your name does not mean more people actually care about you, let alone buy your albums and go to your concerts.  Granted, DT certainly gained a legion of newer, younger fans in that time period, but in the grand scheme of things, their primary base of hardcore fans, the kind of fans who actually buy every album at launch and actually go to every single local concert, has not dramatically increased in size in quite a while.  They have experienced rather steady growth ever since SFAM, thanks to touring and word of mouth, but while this new MTV and video game audience may help the band climb the charts, ultimately, the overall size of the band's dedicated fan base has grown at a much slower, steadier pace then the charts would have you believe.  Dream Theater is still growing in popularity, but that sudden spike of mainstream interest in the band that occurred in 2007-2010 is primarily due to short-term pop-culture trends rather then a dramatic increase of long-term growth patterns.




So what effect would a 1-5 year hiatus have had on the band?  They probably would have lost a lot of their mainstream momentum, which probably would have slowed their growth in ensuing years, but at the end of the day, when they got back together, their core fans would be there waiting for them, and it would have been business as normal.  If they put out a new album after a protracted absence, then there might have been a DT spike on the charts due to a high level of fan expectation, which may or may not have charted higher then their recent albums, but in terms of over all record sales, I don't think there would have been a dramatic increase over the kind of numbers they are pulling in now.  The tour, however, may have been much more successful due to it being Dream Theater's first in however long the hiatus was, which doubtlessly would have fattened the bands coffers considerably.

But would the income from a reunion tour make up for the potential income lost during the hiatus?  Possibly, but at best, I think the band would have broken even.  Even with their side projects and endorsements, Dream Theater tours, and the merch sold at shows, are probably their major money makers, and I doubt anything the members could have done on their own during the break would compare monetarily to the continued success of a unified Dream Theater.  In fact, the longer the hiatus, the greater the potential total of lost income.  The reunion probably would have seemed like a big success, but compared to the possibilities of pushing their current momentum, and in particular exploiting their recent mainstream exposure (which in all likelyhood would have been lost by a protracted absence), it probably would not have been the wisest choice.

[The Dark Master]

Something I want to point out concerning  chart positions is that an album's place on Billboard only reflect the success of a record relative to other records out at the same time.  Consider that SC and ADTOE sold the same amount in the first week, yet SC peaked at # 19 while ADTOE peaked at # 8.  While I do not know exactly what other records were released at the time of those two album, if they sold the same number of records yet were 11 places apart on the charts, then clearly SC was going up against significantly stiffer competition then ADTOE.

Also, in the grand scheme of things, chart positions don't mean shit in overall record sales.  I&W is still their best selling album by a pretty significant margin, yet it peaked on the charts at # 61.  The only thing chart positions indicate is how well an album sells in that particular week, and do not accurately reflect long term sales patterns.

By way of comparison, Queensryche's Empire (1990) peaked at #7.  Conversely, 1994's Promised Land holds the distinction of being QR's highest charting album at # 3, yet in over all sales, Empire wipes the floor with PL (Empire went 3x Platinum in the US alone).  Why?  Because after a highly successful album and a 4 year hiatus, expectations for Promised Land were very, very high, but in the long run, the record failed to match the success of it's illustrious predecessor.

[BlobVanDam]

Depending on how long this hiatus would have been, I don't see it making a huge difference. DT fans are pretty loyal, and fans of the less mainstream genres tend to have a longer memory. So in terms of popularity, I don't think it would have done much either way. In terms of refreshing the band like MP hoped for, I don't see it would have done that either.

As I've said before, neither before or after ADTOE did I think the hiatus was a good idea. And even if it didn't harm them, that would have meant it was pointless to waste time on a hiatus. And I don't see it having any benefit.

[hefdaddy42]

Where do you see a 40% increase?

[Perpetual Change]

Where do you see a 40% increase?

From Octavarium's 27k to Black Cloud's 40k. I don't know if that's 40 percent or not. I just kinda winged that.


And Dark Master, we seem to be approaching this from the same direction. I think what you said here is very true:

mainstream exposure is not the same thing as popularity.

That amount of money Roadrunner's put into DT doesn't necessarily translate into album sales right now. It's more like investing in the band to see if getting them exposure in one area will lead to better sales. For example, the Drummer Documentary. Seems like it was a decent investment on RR's behalf, but at the end of the day it wound up not getting picked up by a TV station and wound up serving as a way for RR to get Youtube hits and get DT's facebook a little bit more traffic. Was it a failure? Maybe in some ways. But it also sold the fans on Mangini, so in the end it was fine.

It's a lot harder to tell, though, how many album sales being in Rock Band or Guitar Hero translated into. My guess is that very few people who play Guitar Hero wind up picking up the albums of the bands that are featured in it. But again, getting a name out there has it's own perks. It leads to people knowing who you are, making you less of a wild-card when trying to arrange deals in the future.

So, if I got you right, what you're saying is Dream Theater's had more exposure in recent years, which hasn't translated in a lot of more album sales, but has led to the overall success of the band and that would have taken the biggest hit of all given a hiatus. I agree. Letting them leave the music radar for an extended period of time would have been a death-knell, imo.

[hefdaddy42]

Album sales aren't as strong a show of popularity as they used to be.  For one thing, many people download illegally.  For another, those numbers you posted don't count LEGAL downloads, AFAIK.

[King Postwhore]

Let's be honest.  DT  will always be at this level of popularity.  Time off, continue like they did, Rockband or no Rockband.  DT has carved out a nice little niche for themselves but that's all it will be.

[rumborak]

I think it would have hurt them. I like many others have the impression that DT has only so many more years in them, and putting them on a hiatus would have only accelerated that. I mean, even with MM and whatnot, they're not the prog sensation they used to be in the IAW-SFAM span.

rumborak

[Perpetual Change]

Album sales aren't as strong a show of popularity as they used to be.  For one thing, many people download illegally.  For another, those numbers you posted don't count LEGAL downloads, AFAIK.

I'm not sure myself. It seems to me to be pretty odd though that a band going from 27k to 36k to 40k in "sales" would have to cut a tour short due to low ticket sales, even when the size of the venues hadn't really increased. What I'm getting at here is I don't think it's right to say that Dream Theater's fame was on such a sharp incline. It seems to me that Dream Theater's popularity is more of a slow and steady burn which a hiatus would have decimated.

Let's be honest.  DT  will always be at this level of popularity.  Time off, continue like they did, Rockband or no Rockband.  DT has carved out a nice little niche for themselves but that's all it will be.

That's exactly what I'm disagreeing with. I think the album/tour cycle has probably been the biggest factor for the reason they have sustained the same amount of interest over such a long period of time.

Over time, people stop showing interest and new faces show up. That's just how keeping yourself on the radar constantly works. Stop promoting yourself and people will still lose interest, but far fewer new people are going to start showing up.

[King Postwhore]

If the hiatus was 5 years PC then I would agree with you.  I'm saying by them recording a new album and touring they've sustained what they already have.

Rumbo, DT really wasn't that big in the I & W and Awake tour .  I saw them in some shady clubs.  Not the 2000 to 4000 seat arenas they play today.

[Super Dude]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that within a couple of years, DT would've been considered, "The best Prog Metal band that once existed."
That or JP and JR would've started a new band, or done an LTE type thing (maybe without Portnoy, if he wanted a break from them), and ended up pursuing that full time. JLB would've ended up pursuing his solo career and probably making money off that, even if not as much as DT. And JM would've joined the first band that had the money to afford such a kick ass bassist.

I dunno, to me this explanation makes the most sense. In five years I would've LONG since stopped following them. After all, the longest period between any release has been three years.

[johncal]

Forget the fans for a moment. These guys are supposed to keep the cash flow going for 5 years how? Side projects aren't going to do it. They make most of their money from touring, and I'm sure Roadrunner would have been thrilled with them if they said they were going on a 5 year break after 2 sucessful albums. 5 years oiff would just be stupid. Period.

Now let's remember the fans. popularity is a pretty subjective word. Their albums they've done would still be respected, but after a few years people would be looking for somone to replace them. Let's face it, what are the odds of getting 5 guys with that level of talent back together after 5 years. The odds are they would have lost one or two members anyways so you might as well bite the bullet and replace Portnoy right away. Losing ANY of the other guys would have had a bigger negative impact on the band and with the fans. It was definitely the best move.

[rumborak]

Rumbo, DT really wasn't that big in the I & W and Awake tour .  I saw them in some shady clubs.  Not the 2000 to 4000 seat arenas they play today.

They have gotten bigger for sure (even though, I saw them in a pretty big place in Germany for the Awake tour), but my impression has been that they "bought" that recent popularity somewhat by moving to a more straight-metal style of music. I can definitely say that most of my friends who were casual DT fans had fallen off the wagon at this point. And I was beginning to lose interest too I have to say. The recent mixup has generated some new interest in DT, but how long it will last is another matter.

rumborak

[kirksnosehair]

Dream Theater the band did not need a hiatus.  Mike Portnoy the drummer needed a hiatus from the other people in Dream Theater and I think it can be safely assumed from how the situation unfolded, the rest of the band agreed that it was best for Mike Portnoy to move on.  Think about it.  I know this has been mentioned many times, but to me it's the most logical line of reasoning.  Dream Theater is a business.  The purpose of a business is to achieve a profit.  You do not take a profitable business and close the doors just because one person who is involved in that business needs a break from the other people in that business.  No one does that.  It kills business.  Customers will move on to other things.  And sure, they may come back when you open your doors later, but it's a pretty substantial risk to take to assume that they'll ALL come back, especially if you're taking that risk just to please one person in a multi-person operation.

No offense to Mr. Portnoy who is clearly a very talented drummer, but I think the whole "we need a hiatus" thing was a bit on the selfish side and I'm not even remotely surprised that the rest of the band said "no."  From a purely business standpoint, it was a terrible idea.

I wish everyone the best.  Mr. Portnoy, I am sure, will do just fine.  Having just paid several session musicians to play on my album, including Ryo Okumoto (who I am sure commands a fraction of the hourly cost that Mr. Portnoy commands for session work) I am absolutely sure that Mr. Portnoy can make a very fine living doing what he loves, and clearly, Dream Theater have risen to the challenge of replacing Mr. Portnoy and have released what is perhaps their best album in a decade in the wake of his departure.

Ultimately,  I think the hiatus was a bad idea that would have hurt the band and I think they (the band) made the correct decision.

[serrano]

Rumbo, DT really wasn't that big in the I & W and Awake tour .  I saw them in some shady clubs.  Not the 2000 to 4000 seat arenas they play today.

They have gotten bigger for sure (even though, I saw them in a pretty big place in Germany for the Awake tour), but my impression has been that they "bought" that recent popularity somewhat by moving to a more straight-metal style of music. I can definitely say that most of my friends who were casual DT fans had fallen off the wagon at this point. And I was beginning to lose interest too I have to say. The recent mixup has generated some new interest in DT, but how long it will last is another matter.

rumborak

Actually they are playing some of the same Venues in Germany. Saw them '95 in the Pretty big Philippshalle in Düsseldorf and they will be playing the Mitsubishi Electric Halle in D'dorf again (Phillipshalle was renamed to Mitsubishy Electric Halle  ). For the I&W tour they played in a smaller Venue in Bonn.

[ZirconBlue]

Considering that overall album sales have been declining for several years, keeping level is actually a relative increase.

 

[serrano]

Considering that overall album sales have been declining for several years, keeping level is actually a relative increase.

This and basically they don't do that well in the US. These figures only reflect the US. In Europe and Japan they are selling more records and selling out bigger venues (US ~2000-3000, Europe ~5000-10000+)

[Nic35]

From a musical standpoint, I think they needed a break. Maybe it wasn't a good idea from a business standpoint, I don't know there's just too many factors.

But it's undeniable that the music became stale in SC and BCSL.

[rumborak]

Actually they are playing some of the same Venues in Germany. Saw them '95 in the Pretty big Philippshalle in Düsseldorf and they will be playing the Mitsubishi Electric Halle in D'dorf again (Phillipshalle was renamed to Mitsubishy Electric Halle  ). For the I&W tour they played in a smaller Venue in Bonn.

WTF, didn't know about the Philipshalle thing!
And yeah, good ol' Biskuithalle Bonn I saw DT there many times (most notably with DS during Touring into Infinity).

rumborak

[BlobVanDam]

From a musical standpoint, I think they needed a break. Maybe it wasn't a good idea from a business standpoint, I don't know there's just too many factors.

But it's undeniable that the music became stale in SC and BCSL.

It is deniable, because that's just an opinion. Personally I found SC and BCASL to have some much more original and creative stuff than on ADTOE. If anything, ADTOE is their safest album in a long time. Not that it's necessarily a bad thing, as I love ADTOE, and many others prefer it over SC/BCASL, but SC and BCASL sound nothing like anything else DT have done.

[?]

It's hard to say what a hiatus would've done to their popularity, but it's clear that the guys (except Mike) would've had trouble getting income. It's true that DT has a faithful core fanbase, but 5 years (or even 4 or 3) is a long time, and people's musical tastes may change drastically in that time. There's a chance that during the hiatus many fans would start finding new bands from other styles of music and lose their spark for prog metal.

[bosk1]

Even a year would have had at least some negative effect.  Again, keep in mind that in the U.S., the only touring DT did in support of Black Clouds was Prog. Nation and the opening slot in the Maiden tour.  They did not to a typical DT headlining tour with only 1 or 2 openers where DT would get a long set to showcase the new material and still keep a substantial amount of older material in the set.  A number of fans deliberately avoided the PN shows waiting for the proper BCSL headlining tour that ultimately never came.  A lot of fans in the U.S. have been anxious for a DT tour since then, and while I am ultimately guessing, I think it is likely a significant number of fans may have started to lose interest if there was another break of a year or more in the album/tour cycle, especially if emotionally-charged buzz words like "hiatus" that imply issues within the band or rumors of breakup are thrown around.

Another component of that is the promoters, who can be an extremely fickle bunch.  If promoters do not believe your band can be a significant draw, the band loses out in three critical (and interrelated areas):  (1) the band doesn't get booked in the best venues, (2) the guarantees (the contract amount the band gets paid for a given show) end up being smaller, which directly impacts the band's bottom line, and (3) promotion for shows can shrink.  Items 1 and 2 are bigger than the casual fan often realizes for the simple fact that the promoter community is rather small and incestuous, and they all pretty much know each other and share information.  So if a band is on a downward trend in terms of  playing smaller, less prestigious venues, and getting smaller guarantees, the promoters mostly all know that, and that leads to a perception among them that a band is declining in popularity, which leads to them getting booked in even smaller venues and getting even smaller guarantees next time around, and so-on.  And if the promotion also shrinks along with that, that often equates to less bodies in seats, which also plays into that cycle.  So unless the band is a really big player and/or has some really huge buzz about a huge event in band history that fans will care about that will place bodies in seats, it ends up being a never-ending downward spiral until the band no longer sees touring as being economically viable. 

DT seems to be in a pretty comfortable niche where they are able to play good, medium-sized venues, and able to sell enough tickets consistently that they get the support they need from the promoter community on their tours.  Not that they would necessarily have lost that if they took more time off, but it is a real possibility.

[cygnusaz]

It's now over 1 hour into the sales for the Phoenix show, a venue with a 1600 seat capacity. According to the available seats map, the place isn't even 50% sold yet.

That means, in 1 hour only 800 tickets have been sold in a major city.

Why? DT hasn't played here since 2007 (except for opening for Maiden last year).  They skipped Phoenix in 2008, & 2009. It's been 4.5 years since a headlining set.

That is what happens when a band goes away from its fans, with a few exceptions. Obviously a band like The Police can reform after 25 years and sell out all over because they were massive and built up a legend.

If Mike got his way, and DT vanished for 5 years, it would have been a disaster. We can see a microcosm effect in Phoenix since they haven't been here in 4.5 years. 

My bet is that a reunion record in 2015 would have sold half of what ADTOE did, and the tour would not be as big as even this one is.

People don't long for a bands return these days - look at Phoenix. You would think after 4.5 years this show would have sold out in 20 minutes. Nope. There is really not that much interest, lol. 

[ZirconBlue]

"Only" selling half the seats in the first hour is now considered "not much interest"?  My how times have changed.

[Millais]

It's now over 1 hour into the sales for the Phoenix show, a venue with a 1600 seat capacity. According to the available seats map, the place isn't even 50% sold yet.

it's been an hour.

I'm pretty sure that's about average for DT shows, in the past or present. To be honest, I think that's quite a big amount for the first hour...

[Orbert]

Yeah, it still seems to me like they're on track to sell it out if it's half full after an hour.

[lordxizor]

I doubt a year off would have made a huge difference. But there would have been some effect. They did seem to have a lot of momentum following SC and BC&SL (probably due to the more mainstream metal approach more than anything) and to lose that would have hurt sales and touring I'm sure. Three years in between albums is hardly anything crazy these days. But 2-5 years off would probably have stung a lot. At some point it becomes a comeback album rather than just another album. I could see the diehards sticking around for that, but not a lot of the new fans they've picked up in recent years.

[Images and Scenes]

Hello all, first of all, i don't want to be misunderstood here. I think ADTOE is a fantastic album....

...BUT...

Is Anyone else wondering what would have happened if the rest of DT went along with Portnoy's initial idea of a hiatus of about 5 years?

Other bands have done it. The most prime example I can think of being Rush (Under very different circumstances after Neil Peart tragically lost his wife and daughter)

Firstly, the eventual return of the band would have been epic, who knows what 5 years off would have done for their restless creative ideas.

Basically I'm in two minds about it..If there was an alternative dimension where DT had taken a break, I'd be intrigued to take a sneaky look into that dimension to see how it would have panned out lol

Thoughts?

[Perpetual Change]

Had another thread about this here: https://www.dreamtheaterforums.org/boards/index.php?topic=28683.0

And here was my long-ass post:

So, a couple weeks ago we got the first sales numbers from the A Dramatic Turn of Events sales. These numbers were very much in the same ball-park as the last couple album; aka, about the same as Systematic Chaos and Black Clouds & Silver Linings and most Dream Theater albums, as far as I know. That got me thinking: so much of Dream Theater's strategy for keeping their fan-base intact seems to have to do with making sure fans never have to go too long without anything new. As DT fans, we generally only seem to have to go a couple of months between the very last date of a tour (or DVD) and the announcement that a new record is in the works. From a business standpoint, this seems like a very smart move. The whole "album/tour/dvd/album" cycle we go through every two years seems to work wonders.

Looking back on the last 4 albums or so, however, I've gotta wonder how whether this strategy is actually contributing toward the band's increased success OR whether it's just been the thing keeping them from falling off. In order to answer that question, we've gotta be honest about how popular Dream Theater actually are and whether the common assumption that they're "getting more and more famous" is actually true. As a gauge, I'm gonna use the first week sales of the last four albums, courtesy of Blabbermouth.

A Dramatic Turn of Events= 36,000
Black Clouds & Silver Linings= 40,000
Systematic Chaos= 36,000
Octavarium= 27,000

Couple things I want to note about these numbers:

1.) From 8va-SC: If I remember correctly, the numbers simply refer to how many records were distrubuted, not necessarily how many were sold. So, it might not be that Systematic Chaos actually sold that many more records than 8va. It could just be that Roadrunner did much better job of getting the records in stores than the previous label. I'm not sure, so someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

2.) Even if there was a huge spike in DT's popularity between 8va and BC&SL (like, according to those numbers, nearly a 40 percent increase, which doesn't feel right as a fan), that spike seems to have more or less plataead back down with the new album. So, how do we explain that? Did DT briefly get like twice as popular during BC&SL days, or were RR just overly zealous about the amount of records they distributed for that album, thinking DT sales were getting better and better when they actually weren't-- a mistake which they corrected this time around by reverting to the SC distribution levels?

Did DT briefly get like twice as popular during BC&SL days?

Honestly, being a fan then and now, I really don't think so. Did they get slightly more popular? Sure. Did they get a lot more popular? No. Think of it this way-- on the Black Clouds tour, DT were failing to fill theaters some of which, to be blunt, were smaller or the same size as th the ones they had filled just a year earlier, or two years earlier when they sold out(?) Radio City Music Hall. The decline in ticket sales was noticeable enough that the tour was cancelled. How could that happen if the band were really in the best place they'd been in a long time, popularity-wise? Part of the problem obviously was the economy. Another part was people didn't want to see Progressive Nation. But could another reason be because the Black Clouds distribution numbers were a tad bit misleading?

I'm not trying to say Dream Theater aren't popular, or are going through hard times. What I'm getting at here is that I think the assumption that Dream Theater's popularity is increasing is probably not really true, at least not in a meaningful way. Given that, you've gotta wonder what a hiatus from the constant album/tour cycle would have done to their popularity. Personally, I think it might have caused them to fall-off completely. It might have helped the relationship between the members to improve, but at a dire price. One year off could have undone everything the band had worked at sustained over the last 10. I shudder to think what five may have done.

tl:dr: DT going on hiatus would have broken the business model that allows the band to remain at their current level of popularity, which is about the same as it's been over the last 5-10 years, and launched them irreversibly into obscurity.



EDIT: To be clear, I'm not posting this simply because Mike's here now and I want to bash the whole idea of a hiatus or anything like that. The "week one" sales of ADTOE provide a lot of food for thought, imo. We obviously didn't have them when Mike left, so it didn't get discussed then, but I think now it's pretty obvious that Dream Theater's popularity isn't on the sharp incline a lot of people had been expecting, making the notion of a hiatus seem all the more dire. That's not to say that they're in a bad place now either. All I'm saying is, it seems like they need to keep doing what they're doing to stay where they are, and the last album's sales kinda prove that.

[johncal]

So I guess you didn't like our answers in the other post? Anyways, IMO they would never have reunited and gone on to be rock superstars. First, they couldn't financially afford 5 years off. Tey don't make that much money. Second, more groups than not make it back and make it big. Further, they obviously didn't think it was worth the risk...... and they just love what they do AND they also seem to really have wanted a change.

[Images and Scenes]

Oops, sorry everybody. Didn't realise there was already a post on this. I was on my lunch break at work when I started the thread and should have checked.

[Perpetual Change]

No need to apologize. I don't expect people to do a "search" every time they have a new idea they want to post about.

The mods, on the other hand... I dunno!

[johncal]

My apologies. My bad attempt at humor.