ADTOE chart positions/sales figures

[cyberdrummer]

Midweek figures in the UK suggest it could come in at no. 10! Trust me, for the UK that would be incredible.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/radio1/chart/update/albums

Any other indicators from around the world?

[BlobVanDam]

I was reading something today that predicted it would be no 10. I assumed that was for the US, although seeing those figures maybe I was getting confused with this.

[cyberdrummer]

Pretty sure now that this album will be DT's best performer in the charts.

[Orthogonal]

BC&SL was 6 in the US I think, so if it can beat that, it would be awesome.

[bosk1]

I'm more interested in hard numbers than chart position.  But, yeah, can't wait until the official first week sales numbers are out.

[SnakeEyes]

I just read a Road Runner article that said it would sell between 30,000-35,000 in its first week.  That was their prediction. 

[SnakeEyes]

https://www.roadrunnerrecords.com/blabbermouth.net/news.aspx?mode=Article&newsitemID=163284

(sorry, not Road Runner)

[bosk1]

So, in other words over 4 times what Queensryche sold in their first week.  LOLryche.  How the mighty have fallen.

[SnakeEyes]

So, in other words over 4 times what Queensryche sold in their first week.  LOLryche.  How the mighty have fallen.

And, it's too bad about that.  Queensryche's new album is actually really good.  I know a lot of people hate it, but they actually TRIED to do something different.  I think it's really creative.  That's for a different thread, though.  lol

[Dr. DTVT]

Do those numbers include pre-orders and box set sales?

[SnakeEyes]

Do those numbers include pre-orders and box set sales?

No. 

"The estimate was based on one-day sales reports compiled after the record arrived in stores on September 13 via Roadrunner Records."

[bosk1]

Right now, it only includes Blabbermouth speculating.  We'll have to wait until the official numbers are out next week before we know anything.

[yorost]

Pretty sure now that this album will be DT's best performer in the charts.

It's just becoming easier and easier for established groups to get high chart positions.  What would barely get you on the chart a decade ago can get you in the top ten now.  Having that established base that wants the album really shoots bands up the charts.

[SnakeEyes]

Actually, bosk, it's not Blabbermouth speculating, but rather just reporting for a change:

"A Dramatic Turn Of Events", the new studio album from progressive metal giants DREAM THEATER, is likely to sell between 30,000 and 35,000 copies in the United States in its first week of release, according to industry web site Hits Daily Double. The estimate was based on one-day sales reports compiled after the record arrived in stores on September 13 via Roadrunner Records.

[tweeg]

I feel that because it's a stronger album than BC&SL even if it doesn't sell more first week, it'll more than make up the difference in the long run in total album sales.

[ResultsMayVary]

It this doesn't include pre-orders and box set orders, then you can definitely bet on DT to go much higher than 30-35K.

I personally see DT selling 40-45K copies in the first week.

[yorost]

It this doesn't include pre-orders and box set orders, then you can definitely bet on DT to go much higher than 30-35K.

I personally see DT selling 40-45K copies in the first week.

It doesn't include anything, it's an estimate.  They take one specific count and translate to an overall estimate based on past data.

[BlobVanDam]

Maybe their estimation takes into account an average amount of pre-orders?

Either way, I think DT's pre-orders would be higher than average, so I'm hoping they've underestimated it and it sets a new personal best for DT. They've earned it.

[bosk1]

Actually, bosk, it's not Blabbermouth speculating, but rather just reporting for a change:

"A Dramatic Turn Of Events", the new studio album from progressive metal giants DREAM THEATER, is likely to sell between 30,000 and 35,000 copies in the United States in its first week of release, according to industry web site Hits Daily Double. The estimate was based on one-day sales reports compiled after the record arrived in stores on September 13 via Roadrunner Records.

Yes, they are basing it on a sales report.  BUT they are speculating about what the first week totals will be based on one day's worth of sales.

[tweeg]

Actually, bosk, it's not Blabbermouth speculating, but rather just reporting for a change:

"A Dramatic Turn Of Events", the new studio album from progressive metal giants DREAM THEATER, is likely to sell between 30,000 and 35,000 copies in the United States in its first week of release, according to industry web site Hits Daily Double. The estimate was based on one-day sales reports compiled after the record arrived in stores on September 13 via Roadrunner Records.

Yes, they are basing it on a sales report.  BUT they are speculating about what the first week totals will be based on one day's worth of sales.

While I do agree you can never be sure, I think a company that does speculate album sales like that would have a pretty refined statistical model to use. So I can imagine (with say 95% certainty  ) the sales will lie in that range.

[7StringedBeast]

Never tell me the odds!

[Phoenix87x]

It deserves to be number 1.

[ResultsMayVary]

It deserves to be number 1.

It deserves it, but it would be a miracle for it to hit #2 with the Lady Antebellum album out the same day.

[TL]

Midweek figures in the UK suggest it could come in at no. 10! Trust me, for the UK that would be incredible.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/radio1/chart/update/albums

Any other indicators from around the world?

For perspective, BC&SL peaked at #23 in the UK, so that would indeed be a huge gain.

[ResultsMayVary]

I really cant wait for the new album sales to be posted. Its going to be interesting to see how the new album charts in comparison to BC&SL.

[blackngold29]

Hope I'm wrong, but I predict it won't beat BCSL in the US on the chart. I've been to four stores, seen two copies in one and nothing in the others. Every one of them had the new RHCP, Lady Applebottom, Tony Bennett, Jackie Evancho, and Winston Marcelles. Most for 10 bucks.

RR distributed this horribly.

[livehard]

Its #7 on Amazon.  We should hope for a lot of electronic sales.

[Lotion]

At the local musicstore in Norway, they are listed as the second most popular album. I was suprised by that!

[TAC]

Hope I'm wrong, but I predict it won't beat BCSL in the US on the chart. I've been to four stores, seen two copies in one and nothing in the others. Every one of them had the new RHCP, Lady Applebottom, Tony Bennett, Jackie Evancho, and Winston Marcelles. Most for 10 bucks.

RR distributed this horribly.

I grabbed the last copy of the CD/DVD at Newbury Comics near me!

[bosk1]

Keep in mind also that, in a way, the number have nothing to do with how many copies people actually buy.  It is based off of how many copies ship from the distributors to the retailers, which is based off of what the label, the distributors, and the retailers project the first week sales to be.  So, in a way, it's very artificial.

[Jamesman42]

Will me buying the album tomorrow be a part of how high it charts? Or is it just the first day? Sorry if it has been mentioned earlier...I'm buying mine tomorrow.

[DreamerTV]

Didn't BC&SL sold 36k copies in the first week in US?

[bosk1]

Will me buying the album tomorrow be a part of how high it charts? Or is it just the first day? Sorry if it has been mentioned earlier...I'm buying mine tomorrow.

See my post right above yours.  And in light of your question, I will add that it sort of depends.  It is a first week total.  Again, individual purchases aren't directly reflected in the numbers because the numbers are based on number shipped from distributor to retailer, regardless of whether those copies sell or just sit on the shelves.  However, your purchase may indirectly have an impact on the numbers.  For example, if you purchase before the store does its inventory and order before the cutoff, and the store determines they have sold enough copies to warrant ordering more, and that order gets placed, filled, and reported before the cutoff, then yes, that number will count.  Get it?

[bosk1]

Didn't BC&SL sold 36k copies in the first week in US?

According to Blabbermouth, SC sold 36k.  BCSL sold 40k.

https://www.roadrunnerrecords.com/blabbermouth.net/news.aspx?mode=Article&newsitemID=122920

[DreamerTV]

Didn't BC&SL sold 36k copies in the first week in US?

According to Blabbermouth, SC sold 36k.  BCSL sold 40k.

https://www.roadrunnerrecords.com/blabbermouth.net/news.aspx?mode=Article&newsitemID=122920

So, are they predicting a turn down? Kinda strange...

Oh, and thanks bosk!