DT11 good shape to Hit #1 on Billboard!!

[King Postwhore]

You wacky Kiwi's.

I'm more into seeing how well it sells 3 and 4 weeks after it's release.  DT always does well the first week it's released because of the hardcore fans like us.  Ir's after that I'm interested about.

[rmp0012002]

It depends what artists are released at the same time.  Record (CD) "Sales" don't go by the actual amount purchased but units shipped by the label.  How albums are certified and how sales are calculated is quite fascinating and confusing at the same time. 

Also, a double album which is at least 100 minutes long counts as two units. I'm not sure if that's just for certifications, or if it counts for the chart too. I am pretty sure it's only a US thing either way.

Correct. A double album or set with more discs is the number of discs x units. So if a box set of 3 discs shipped 5m units it would be calculated as 15m.  World wide is a totally different system and a lot of proof is required for certification.  The more units shipped/sold is usually bogus as the more units means more royalties that the label has to pay to the artist. 

[The Letter M]

It depends what artists are released at the same time.  Record (CD) "Sales" don't go by the actual amount purchased but units shipped by the label.  How albums are certified and how sales are calculated is quite fascinating and confusing at the same time. 

Also, a double album which is at least 100 minutes long counts as two units. I'm not sure if that's just for certifications, or if it counts for the chart too. I am pretty sure it's only a US thing either way.

Correct. A double album or set with more discs is the number of discs x units. So if a box set of 3 discs shipped 5m units it would be calculated as 15m.  World wide is a totally different system and a lot of proof is required for certification.  The more units shipped/sold is usually bogus as the more units means more royalties that the label has to pay to the artist. 

This is all correct, and I have to wonder if BC&SL's Special Edition being a 3-Disc set helped it's numbers considerably? Also, it's possibly (and highly) unlikely that they would go the multi-disc route again. I suppose releasing a single disc would mean having to ship/sell a LOT more units for their 11th album to even break Top 10, let alone break their record of being No. 6 at release.

Am I right in thinking this, or am I completely wrong?

-Marc.

[ZKX-2099]

I heard somewhere that this is the last CD they signed to do with Road Runner. Maybe RR will do a promo blitz to get them to resign..... or the opposite.

Who fucking knows. DT will do what they want and it will kick ass.

[robwebster]

On the face of it, this seems like such a strange thing to discuss when the next album isn't even recorded yet.

But hey, it's DTF.

Eh, it's not like anyone would be able to give a more accurate prediction in five months' time. We wouldn't learn anything. Just as well-equipped to answer it now. Which is "not very," but that's speculation.

[hefdaddy42]

It depends what artists are released at the same time.  Record (CD) "Sales" don't go by the actual amount purchased but units shipped by the label.  How albums are certified and how sales are calculated is quite fascinating and confusing at the same time. 

Also, a double album which is at least 100 minutes long counts as two units. I'm not sure if that's just for certifications, or if it counts for the chart too. I am pretty sure it's only a US thing either way.

Correct. A double album or set with more discs is the number of discs x units. So if a box set of 3 discs shipped 5m units it would be calculated as 15m.  World wide is a totally different system and a lot of proof is required for certification.  The more units shipped/sold is usually bogus as the more units means more royalties that the label has to pay to the artist. 

This is all correct, and I have to wonder if BC&SL's Special Edition being a 3-Disc set helped it's numbers considerably? Also, it's possibly (and highly) unlikely that they would go the multi-disc route again. I suppose releasing a single disc would mean having to ship/sell a LOT more units for their 11th album to even break Top 10, let alone break their record of being No. 6 at release.

Am I right in thinking this, or am I completely wrong?

-Marc.

You're wrong, because the extra 2 discs were bonus discs, not part of the album.  One Special Edition shipped did not count as 3 toward the sales total.

[The Letter M]

It depends what artists are released at the same time.  Record (CD) "Sales" don't go by the actual amount purchased but units shipped by the label.  How albums are certified and how sales are calculated is quite fascinating and confusing at the same time. 

Also, a double album which is at least 100 minutes long counts as two units. I'm not sure if that's just for certifications, or if it counts for the chart too. I am pretty sure it's only a US thing either way.

Correct. A double album or set with more discs is the number of discs x units. So if a box set of 3 discs shipped 5m units it would be calculated as 15m.  World wide is a totally different system and a lot of proof is required for certification.  The more units shipped/sold is usually bogus as the more units means more royalties that the label has to pay to the artist. 

This is all correct, and I have to wonder if BC&SL's Special Edition being a 3-Disc set helped it's numbers considerably? Also, it's possibly (and highly) unlikely that they would go the multi-disc route again. I suppose releasing a single disc would mean having to ship/sell a LOT more units for their 11th album to even break Top 10, let alone break their record of being No. 6 at release.

Am I right in thinking this, or am I completely wrong?

-Marc.

You're wrong, because the extra 2 discs were bonus discs, not part of the album.  One Special Edition shipped did not count as 3 toward the sales total.

Okay, I wasn't sure because of rmp0012002's post about units and sales. What about the Producer's Edition Box set that included the album on 2LP Vinyl? Would that have counted toward the final Unit count for sales? Or do the unit-counts for sales only count if the discs are part of the main album, like TFK's 2-Disc albums, or SB's Snow?

-Marc.

[hefdaddy42]

Yes.

[The Letter M]

Yes.

...Cool.

-Marc.

[TL]

Yeah. To count as more than one unit, the main album needs to have multiple discs. Additional content in special editions doesn't count.

[Ħ]

Yes.

...Cool.

-Marc.

[Chagny]

It will reach number zero.

[Daso]

They made it to #6 with BC&SL and it wasn't that important on their career (besides being their 10th album). DT11, on the other hand, has a Dream Theater that just came out of their drummer's departure which was big news on the metal world and of course, the Maiden support tour which might have gained them some followers.

I agree, if they made it to #6 with BC&SL they can make it to #1 with DT11 which will be a historical change (because of the different line-up).

[TL]

Honestly, at the end of the day, their chart position isn't important in the slightest. Yes, they more than deserve to have a #1, and it would be incredible, but they're a band who are fortunate enough to not rely on the charts. They have something that's becoming increasingly rare in the world of music; a loyal fanbase.
As the music scene becomes more and more fragmented, and as traditional pop music sees its sales freefall, a new level of success is becoming more and more viable; bands that aren't mainstream, but aren't at all obscure either. Honestly, Dream Theater are one of the bands at the forefront of this movement, whether they know it or not. It's one of the best things to happen to the music industry in a long, long time.

More and more people have become frustrated with the music selection they're provided on mainstream radio. Thanks largely to the internet, people are able to find music they actually like, rather than what they're told to like (I'm not suggesting that no one actually likes pop music. If that were the case, no one would be buying it. I'm saying some people are fed up with it).
DT were able to not only survive, but thrive on word of mouth in an era without the internet, and when they were on a label that didn't provide them much support. Now, they're on a label that supports them, getting plenty of exposure thanks to the internet, and are as close to the mainstream as they've ever been (yes, even closer than during the IaW era).

Regardless of what position they hit on the Billboard chart, they're going to do extremely well.

[cramx3]

People who use the Maiden support tour to think DT's new album will sell more... wel IMs tour only got thier album to chart at 3 with favorable competition during the release week.  I doubt DT beats BC&SL.  Top 10 is very possible, but not top 5. 

[bosk1]

Another factor that isn't being taken into account:

I don't have access to the numbers to back it up with hard data, but I'm under the impression that there is a huge dropoff as you progress down the chart.  So while #6 may seem relatively close to #1 in the top 200, it really isn't in terms of album sales.  So, for example, the top 10 in a given week might look something like:

1.  100,000 units
2.  94,000 units
3.  72,000 units
4.  59,000 units
5.  45,000 units
6.  33,000 units
...

Maybe it doesn't drop of quite that quickly, but again, I'm under the impression that a lower top-10 rank is still a VERY far cry from a top 3 rank in terms of units shipped.

[Dublagent66]

DT11 needs to be another double album. 

[ddtonfire]

DT11 needs to be another triple album. 

FTFY

[rumborak]

Another factor that isn't being taken into account:

I don't have access to the numbers to back it up with hard data, but I'm under the impression that there is a huge dropoff as you progress down the chart.  So while #6 may seem relatively close to #1 in the top 200, it really isn't in terms of album sales.  So, for example, the top 10 in a given week might look something like:

1.  100,000 units
2.  94,000 units
3.  72,000 units
4.  59,000 units
5.  45,000 units
6.  33,000 units
...

Maybe it doesn't drop of quite that quickly, but again, I'm under the impression that a lower top-10 rank is still a VERY far cry from a top 3 rank in terms of units shipped.

I don't think that's an inherent feature of the list though, but rather depending on who occupies those top spots. That is, I would think you can have a flat slope where the artists on top are medium-popularity acts which don't have super-high numbers that are pretty close to each other, and you can have a heart-throb list where a Justin Bieber or Miley Cyrus completely clobbers the competition and cause that sharp drop-off.

rumborak

[bosk1]

I agree.  There's nothing inherent about the list that forces it to be that way.  I just think that's the way it almost always shakes out.  Being generous to DT, even if the jump from where they were with BCSL is only a multiple of 1.5 to go from #6 to #1, I still think that's too much to expect for their next release.

[rumborak]

I would think so too, provided they stay close to BCSL and SC in style. I think that music will have a self-limiting audience, making it hard to go far beyond the numbers they got with BCSL. If they go all balls-out and shake things up majorly, then all bets are off.

rumborak

[TAC]

What they release as a "single" and the pre-release PR will have a huge impact, I think.

[darkshade]

DT11 = double album (or triple album)?   that would be sweet

[rumborak]

God no. More music != good music.

rumborak

[orcus116]

Yeah I dunno where people get that notion from. Prog bands are almost the worst at filling double CDs because they have no idea how to edit themselves. You might get a ton of cool ideas but there are too many of them and the really good ones never get fleshed out.

[7StringedBeast]

Yeah I dunno where people get that notion from. Prog bands are almost the worst at filling double CDs because they have no idea how to edit themselves. You might get a ton of cool ideas but there are too many of them and the really good ones never get fleshed out.

6DOIT

[rumborak]

Yeah, problem is that because it worked on 6DOIT, people now think more is better. On 6DOIT they really did have the ideas, but there's been many an occasion where even on a normal single-CD album they were running out of good ideas and just fluffed their way through.

rumborak

[7StringedBeast]

Yeah I understand that, but I don't think DT will release a double album if they don't have enough good material for it anyways.  And if they do have it, they should go for a double album if they want.  Why not?