DT11 good shape to Hit #1 on Billboard!!

[LTE777]

I was thinking about DT CD sales the other day and thought, DT are in probably the best position they have ever been to Hit #1 on the Billboard sales charts in the US for the release of DT11.  They have huge momentum coming off the last I/Maiden support tour which has been building since TOT, the most interest from fans in the band since SFAM who have a re-kindled interest to see what MP-less DT come up with and also, the many thousands of fans they picked up thanks to MP and his stint with Avenged Sevenfold and also the most press coverage regarding Mike leaving I think the band has ever had!

I think sales of the next record will be through the roof as fans who after 6D0IT decided to pass on either SC, 8V or BCSL for whatever reasons.

The consensus from people who post here is that, people who have passed on SC & BCSL are willing to give the next one a shot.


As a side questions, do you think the quality of the next cd will dictate the sales or are DT popular enough to release a sub-par album and still do well even without MP?

[wolfking]

Probably not.

[Mladen]

They're still on Roadrunner. I think it will be their best selling album to date.

[darkshade]

it may also depend on when it's released, and if bigger acts have new albums out around then. also, it would help if Michael Jackson doesnt die again.

anyway, i say, sure #1

[juice]

They'll make the chart.

[atmyne]

Of course it will top BC&SL on the charts, or at the very least equal it. Due to all the publicity they have been getting since Portnoy left, they are more popular than ever. How could they possibly go backwards? even a decent proportion of those who can barely live in a world where Portnoy is not in DT will be curious and buy the album. I doubt it will make the number 1 spot though. Could do. either way sales =/= a good album, good music makes a good album.

[dethklok09]

i think it will get in the top 5 but not number 1

[YtseJamittaja]

i think it will get in the top 5 but not number 1

[robwebster]

I definitely think they COULD beat BCSL, but I'm not counting on it.

So far, they've beaten their standing with each consecutive release for the last few years. They've got the benefit of an ever-growing fanbase, increasingly good promotion, and the fact that they're not a singles-oriented band. Factor in the dedication of the fans and it's very possible that they could beat their previous standing. Especially as the CD industry is in decline more or less everywhere except in the progressive rock world.

BUT. The top 5's volatile. The sales needed to reach number 7 on a strong chart week might get you number 1 against weaker competition. Not to mention, after all the kerfuffle with Mike Portnoy, it's hard to know how many people may have jumped ship. I wouldn't imagine that many, and it may have piqued the interest of many more, but from this insular sort of appendix you can't really see. There are a LOT of people still complaining about the decision, if you look on the DT facebook page.

DT's fanbase is both huge and dedicated. And it's still on the climb, which is absolutely gobsmacking 25 years into their career. There are plenty of people who'll tell you their hey-day was the Images and Words - Awake season, but if you measure their critical acclaim, public acclaim, and the sales figures, they're so far above the bar they can barely see it - and it's hard to think of any bands that have ever been in such rude health this far along the ladder.

They're absolutely, definitely, 100% capable of a number one. But it's too hard to call. The top five is volatile. If their album comes out the same week as a new Lady Gaga, Kanye West, Cast of Glee - they could slide anywhere across the chart. And there's more room to drop than there is to climb. They could definitely get a number one if the planets align correctly, but I'm not counting on it.

From memory (so the figures may be a bit off), BSCL was released the week Michael Jackson died and in the UK it ended up dropping to number 25 under the weight of the MJ albums. Would've been 19 - an improvement on Systematic Chaos, I think? - were there not six Jacko albums crushing it back down. I've got faith in DT, and they're firing on all cylinders right now, but who knows?! The charts are a cruel mistress.

Good shape to reach #1, but good shape to drop to #11, too.

[Chino]

I think MJ held 4 of the 5 spots above BCSL if I'm not mistaken.

[bosk1]

A bunch of stuff that pretty much nailed it.

Hey, everybody.  Meet Rob Webster.  He pretty much nailed it.

[skydivingninja]

With Portnoy, it might have been able to do it.  Without Portnoy, and with so many fans feeling that they should've stopped, I'm not sure.  We'll see, though like RobWebster said, depending on what else comes out in that timeframe, the album could be anywhere on the chart.

[pogoowner]

I don't know what their competition actually was, but I sort of get the feeling they lucked out in getting to #6 last time. I have a hard time believing they'll get that high again.

[rumborak]

Yeah, the thing about DT albums is that their fan base is waiting for the album to come out, so they have this incredible first-week spike where everybody buys it, and then it drops immediately back down. Depending on who their competition is at that week it will define what number they get.

Regarding #1, I don't think so. Top 10, yeah.

rumborak

[Orion1967]

I would say in a world that Justin Beiber can peak two albums at #5 and #1 respectively...

I place little stock in anything rated by Billboard Magazine tbqh...  Even if it doesn't make the top 100, it will still be miles and miles and miles better than the swill that passes as music nowadays.

Oh and HAI I haz a First Post 

[skydivingninja]

I would say in a world that Justin Beiber can peak two albums at #5 and #1 respectively...

I place little stock in anything rated by Billboard Magazine tbqh...  Even if it doesn't make the top 100, it will still be miles and miles and miles better than the swill that passes as music nowadays.

Oh and HAI I haz a First Post 

Oh.  You're one of THOSE people.

You know we're talking about album sales, right?  An objective measure of how many units DT sold compared to other artists in that week?

[Leorimus]

I think they could beat BCSL chart entry do to all the publicity and current hype. About hitting #1, with the amount of albums DT sells on the first week, which is usually between 35K-60K (which is awesome in the current state of the music industry) it is achieveable, but it will depend on what other artists are releasing albums that week, so basically that would pretty much be in the hands of the label, so if it's released in a "slow" week, I think it could happen, more so if they sell more that BCSL, which if I remember correctly sold arround 70K, on the first week.

But hey, even if they match BCSL Top 6 entry or go for the Top 5 it would be awesome. And if take into account this album being the first without MP, even a Top 10 entry would mean so much for the guys in DT.

[DreamerTV]

Always thought about this, but, do you guys really think that PN09 has gone well?. I mean, here in italy surely not. And if i'm not wrong, also the first leg of US tour, the only one if you consider headline shows, had not gone that well. Chaos in motion tour marked an high peak in terms of followers and places were they played. And BCSL tour inverted the tendency, in my opinion. But, here i am asking if you noted this, or if i'm totally wrong, which it may be.

Maybe a little bit OT, 'cause your talking about the US chart, but i would like to have your opinions.

[Orion1967]

Oh.  You're one of THOSE people.

You know we're talking about album sales, right?  An objective measure of how many units DT sold compared to other artists in that week?

NO! Really? 
Holy shit I never knew thats what the Billboard charts meant! Thanks for enlightening me.   

On a non-sarcastic note, The problem is that a large portion of the music CD purchasing public thinks crap like Beaver Boy puts out is actually good music... and would not recognize talent if it dropped in for dinner and presented them a check for $1 million.  This is evidenced by the total number weeks on the charts, not the peak position really.  For example Bieber's (I use him as an example simply because I think he is possibly the worst musician that is being hyped right now... insert your own flavor of crappy musician and research if you like) latest ablum has spend 41 weeks on the charts as of right now with a Peak at #1.   Whereas BCSL spent 7 weeks on the charts and peaked at #6.   

You see my point?  Or perhaps you think Bieber is truely a more gifted musician than the fellows in DT? 

[The Letter M]

There's a difference between Musician and Celebrity. Dream Theater is a band of musicians - Justin Beiber is a celebrity. Granted, Musicians can be celebrities, but not all celebrities can be musicians. But once you BECOME a celebrity, your talent as a musician can be overviewed by your recognition as a celebrity.

Bieber's sales are probably based as much, or more, in the fact that he's a celebrity, than based on whatever talent he may or may not have. That's what happens to most pop artists - their reputation any recognition tends to help them sell more than their talent alone.

Related to that, it's quite possible that the "hype" around DT's first album without Mike Portnoy may bring in casual fans who have only heard of DT from Guitar Hero/Rock Band, or have heard a few songs here and there from friends, or only knew them in the 90's with "Pull Me Under" and "Lie". It could very well be that DT's casual fans will shell out $15 for this "historically monumental" album, no matter who the new drummer turns out to be, because it's a drummer who ISN'T Mike Portnoy, a founding member. When something like this happens in a rock band, I think many casual fans' curiosity gets the better of them, so they're likely to check it out and hopefully BUY the album, and not steal it or pirate it online.

-Marc.

[Orion1967]

That was kind of what I was trying to say Marc, you were much better at stating it or so it would seem.  I guess what I was initially trying to get at was that it really doesnt matter what the chart performance of the DT11 album does to me anyways.  I know that kind of a thing is a big deal to a label since they are primarily interested in selling records but as a musician (which I am sure 85%+ of us in here are to one extent or another) I really couldn't care less what the album's chart performace is. 

Like you say there may be enough sales from the curious, the casual and quasi-hardcore DT fans who want the milestone album simply beacuse of what it is and of course the die hards that will buy anything that DT put out (because the worst DT music is still head and shoulders above most of the music out there today anyways).  It would be cool and yeah I guess on a certain level I would be stoked if they got the new album to #1, I am just skeptical simply because of the sheer volume of the oversensationalized celebrity artists that you describe in the industry today. 

[skydivingninja]

Oh.  You're one of THOSE people.

You know we're talking about album sales, right?  An objective measure of how many units DT sold compared to other artists in that week?

NO! Really? 
Holy shit I never knew thats what the Billboard charts meant! Thanks for enlightening me.   

On a non-sarcastic note, The problem is that a large portion of the music CD purchasing public thinks crap like Beaver Boy puts out is actually good music... and would not recognize talent if it dropped in for dinner and presented them a check for $1 million.  This is evidenced by the total number weeks on the charts, not the peak position really.  For example Bieber's (I use him as an example simply because I think he is possibly the worst musician that is being hyped right now... insert your own flavor of crappy musician and research if you like) latest ablum has spend 41 weeks on the charts as of right now with a Peak at #1.   Whereas BCSL spent 7 weeks on the charts and peaked at #6.   

You see my point?  Or perhaps you think Bieber is truely a more gifted musician than the fellows in DT? 

You said you don't put much stock in anything by billboard magazine, which led me to believe you were talking about articles and reviews rather than the objective list of sales. 

But this kind of thinking is one of my biggest pet peeves.  You don't like mainstream music, fine, I don't like most of it either.  I for one think Bieber is horrible.  BUT, the attitude of "man what's wrong with all these mainstream sheeple, can't they see what good music is?  How could they possibly like this drivel?" is annoying and gives prog fans a bad name.  At least try to understand that maybe not everyone likes 20 minute songs about dark masters, and would rather listen to concise, three minute love or party songs.  There's a lot of it on this forum and the Internet and it gets tiresome pretty quickly. 

@Marc: I don't know...if anything, the casual fans will likely download the album to see what its like without MP, if they even know who he is or know of the recent change.  I don't see them contributing to a high chart position.

[Gadough]

They're still on Roadrunner. I think it will be their best selling album to date.

I agree with this, but I highly doubt it will hit #1. If Maiden couldn't do it with The Final Frontier, DT sure as hell won't be able to. I'm hoping it cracks the Top 10 though...

[The Dark Master]

not everyone likes 20 minute songs about dark masters

WHAAAAAT?!?!  Blasphemy!  Everyone should love 20 minute songs about me!

Anywho..........

If there are no major artists releasing an album the same week, it is certainly possible Dream Theater could at least hit #1, although DT really lacks the mainstream appeal to hold that kind of position for long, unless they have another Pull Me Under up their sleeves that they have been saving for a rainy day, like, when a long-time member just up and quits the band, maybe?  I think all the excitement generated by Portnoy's departure will help their sales rather then hurt them, so beating BC&SL is certainly within the realm of possibility, but as for getting the #1 spot....... I don't know who Maiden's competition was when Final Frontier came out, or maybe it was just the fact that, in the grand scheme of things, the fans just saw it as yet another Maiden album, and thus became complacent; but if Maiden couldn't take #1, then that doesn't bode to well for Dream Theater.

[Dublagent66]

not everyone likes 20 minute songs about dark masters

This made me laugh.   

[rumborak]

But this kind of thinking is one of my biggest pet peeves.  You don't like mainstream music, fine, I don't like most of it either.  I for one think Bieber is horrible.  BUT, the attitude of "man what's wrong with all these mainstream sheeple, can't they see what good music is?  How could they possibly like this drivel?" is annoying and gives prog fans a bad name.  At least try to understand that maybe not everyone likes 20 minute songs about dark masters, and would rather listen to concise, three minute love or party songs.  There's a lot of it on this forum and the Internet and it gets tiresome pretty quickly.

There's a term for it: Prog snobs.
Thing is, the older I get, the more I understand the viewpoint of the Justin Bieber and Lady Gaga listeners. Prog is often pretentious, over-bearing and more often than not loses sight of the song in its attempt to cram yet another idea into the beast they call a song. Dream Theater is actually *the* band in that genre that doesn't fall into that trap too much (the reason why I listen to them and barely any other prog metal band), but they've definitely had their share of being a Pez dispenser of epics. I mean, take the "What do you expect for DT11?" discussion, where it's just a question of how many epics there will be, not whether or not at all.

rumborak

[TL]

I think the new album will do better than BC&SL in terms of first week sales. As has been pointed out, their chart position will really depend on what else comes out that week.

Also, Michael Jackson actually didn't bump them down on the chart in the US. If an album has been out for more than a certain amount of time, it can only appear on the 'Catalog Chart'. It's why Dark Side of the Moon ceased appearing on the 200. In the US, because of how long they had been out, his albums appeared on the Catalog Chart when people started buying them up after his death.

As for Iron Maiden, I'm pretty sure they just debuted against some really high selling albums. They did hit #1 here though. 

[hefdaddy42]

On the face of it, this seems like such a strange thing to discuss when the next album isn't even recorded yet.

But hey, it's DTF.

[rmp0012002]

It depends what artists are released at the same time.  Record (CD) "Sales" don't go by the actual amount purchased but units shipped by the label.  How albums are certified and how sales are calculated is quite fascinating and confusing at the same time. 

[sneakyblueberry]

I would say in a world that Justin Beiber can peak two albums at #5 and #1 respectively...

I place little stock in anything rated by Billboard Magazine tbqh...  Even if it doesn't make the top 100, it will still be miles and miles and miles better than the swill that passes as music nowadays.

Oh and HAI I haz a First Post 

Oh.  You're one of THOSE people.

You know we're talking about album sales, right?  An objective measure of how many units DT sold compared to other artists in that week?

As correct as you may be, that's still no way to greet someone after their first post.  Fair suck of the sausage, SDN.

[Ħ]

Maybe yes maybe no.  It doesnt matter to me.  Its not an accomplishment that would garner any more resect from me, since there are quite a number of meh musicians that hit the top.

[Nt-II]

i cant say i care for where it hits on the chart... i want a album that is amazing... cant really care for how popular it is or what its rated... long as its awesome in our hearts 

[TL]

It depends what artists are released at the same time.  Record (CD) "Sales" don't go by the actual amount purchased but units shipped by the label.  How albums are certified and how sales are calculated is quite fascinating and confusing at the same time. 

Also, a double album which is at least 100 minutes long counts as two units. I'm not sure if that's just for certifications, or if it counts for the chart too. I am pretty sure it's only a US thing either way.

[skydivingninja]

I would say in a world that Justin Beiber can peak two albums at #5 and #1 respectively...

I place little stock in anything rated by Billboard Magazine tbqh...  Even if it doesn't make the top 100, it will still be miles and miles and miles better than the swill that passes as music nowadays.

Oh and HAI I haz a First Post 

Oh.  You're one of THOSE people.

You know we're talking about album sales, right?  An objective measure of how many units DT sold compared to other artists in that week?

As correct as you may be, that's still no way to greet someone after their first post.  Fair suck of the sausage, SDN.

Yes, perhaps I do suck a bit of sausage on the side now and again.  Normally I welcome people here, but in annoyance to that first post I overlooked it.

Sorry about that Orion.  Welcome to the forums!

[sneakyblueberry]

I would say in a world that Justin Beiber can peak two albums at #5 and #1 respectively...

I place little stock in anything rated by Billboard Magazine tbqh...  Even if it doesn't make the top 100, it will still be miles and miles and miles better than the swill that passes as music nowadays.

Oh and HAI I haz a First Post 

Oh.  You're one of THOSE people.

You know we're talking about album sales, right?  An objective measure of how many units DT sold compared to other artists in that week?

As correct as you may be, that's still no way to greet someone after their first post.  Fair suck of the sausage, SDN.

Yes, perhaps I do suck a bit of sausage on the side now and again.  Normally I welcome people here, but in annoyance to that first post I overlooked it.

Sorry about that Orion.  Welcome to the forums!

sorry dude, that's a Kiwi phrase I should've known would get lost in translation.  It basically means, give him a fair go.  No fellatio involved.