California Wildfires

[Accelerando]

Some of you know I made the move from Los Angeles to Orange County some time ago to live with my girlfriend while she gets her Masters from UC irvine. We live about 15 miles from the “Holy Fire” in Trabuco Canyon. We have been told that if the fires get closer, to prepare for evacuation.

I have a buddy of mine in Hemet who is a firefighter, and was called up to fight it. I havent heard from him in two days, but his wife was able to talk to him for 5 minutes, and he hasn’t been able to sleep much.

In my 5 years living in Southern California, it seems like these wildfires are becoming worse, and most of the time they are started by some idiot not watching their campfire. Living in Florida most of my life, any time there was a wildfire, it was contained immediately and put out a few days later. The dry weather out here seems like it makes these fires uncontainable until it starts to die out on their own.

I hope any fellow DTFers here and their families are safe and sound from the fire!

[bosk1]

Be safe, man.  Up north, we haven't seen the sky for over 2 weeks because of all the smoke in the air, even though there isn't a fire anywhere near us.  But that is nothing compared to actually being in immediate danger from the fires themselves.  It sucks.

And I hate to politicize the issue, but a big contributing factor is that state's response to environmental concerns.  The pendulum has swung SO far toward protecting EVERYTHING that we don't thin out the vegetation, engaged in planned deforestation, and controlled burn anymore, which creates vast amounts of dense, dry underbrush and tinder, which leads to these fires being much bigger and hotter than they otherwise would.  When you have countryside that is already somewhat of a natural tinderbox, this kind of approach is not sustainable, and all of us here are suffering for it in one way or another.

[Chino]

I work in a department that's sole purpose is to model and predict our average annual loss for 4 types of catastrophic risk on huge scales. Wild fire is one of them. We are up to $750M in claims so far this year. All of our models, and the models of two of our largest third party vendors, indicate that the intensity of these fires has nothing to do with not being able to cut forests down, and everything to do with setting new heat records year after year and everything being dry as shit. You could cut down a half mile wide area around a blaze and a single gust of wind carrying a single flaming leaf renders that useless.

[King Postwhore]

How close are you from Cypress, Accelerando? Be safe!!

[bosk1]

I work in a department that's sole purpose is to model and predict our average annual loss for 4 types of catastrophic risk on huge scales. Wild fire is one of them. We are up to $750M in claims so far this year. All of our models, and the models of two of our largest third party vendors, indicate that the intensity of these fires has nothing to do with not being able to cut forests down, and everything to do with setting new heat records rear after year and everything being dry as shit. You could cut down a half mile wide area around a blaze and a single gust of wind carrying a single flaming leaf renders that useless.

Let's try not to let our biases keep us from seeing the whole picture rather than focusing on one aspect.  There are many causes, and dryness is definitely one of them.  But there is AT LEAST one other significant contributing factor, and those out here actually dealing with and studying the fires in this state agree on that. 

[pg1067]

How close are you from Cypress, Accelerando? Be safe!!

Cypress and Trabuco Canyon are about 20-25 miles apart as the crow flies, and Cypress isn't in an area where wildfires would be an issue (other than the smoke).

My wife told me yesterday that she read something about folks in Colorado being able to see the smoke from fires in California.  That seems hard to believe, but who knows?

[Chino]

I work in a department that's sole purpose is to model and predict our average annual loss for 4 types of catastrophic risk on huge scales. Wild fire is one of them. We are up to $750M in claims so far this year. All of our models, and the models of two of our largest third party vendors, indicate that the intensity of these fires has nothing to do with not being able to cut forests down, and everything to do with setting new heat records rear after year and everything being dry as shit. You could cut down a half mile wide area around a blaze and a single gust of wind carrying a single flaming leaf renders that useless.

Let's try not to let our biases keep us from seeing the whole picture rather than focusing on one aspect.  There are many causes, and dryness is definitely one of them.  But there is AT LEAST one other significant contributing factor, and those out here actually dealing with and studying the fires in this state agree on that.

Yes sir, boss.

[gmillerdrake]

Be safe, man.  Up north, we haven't seen the sky for over 2 weeks because of all the smoke in the air, even though there isn't a fire anywhere near us.  But that is nothing compared to actually being in immediate danger from the fires themselves.  It sucks.

And I hate to politicize the issue, but a big contributing factor is that state's response to environmental concerns.  The pendulum has swung SO far toward protecting EVERYTHING that we don't thin out the vegetation, engaged in planned deforestation, and controlled burn anymore, which creates vast amounts of dense, dry underbrush and tinder, which leads to these fires being much bigger and hotter than they otherwise would.  When you have countryside that is already somewhat of a natural tinderbox, this kind of approach is not sustainable, and all of us here are suffering for it in one way or another.

I work in a department that's sole purpose is to model and predict our average annual loss for 4 types of catastrophic risk on huge scales. Wild fire is one of them. We are up to $750M in claims so far this year. All of our models, and the models of two of our largest third party vendors, indicate that the intensity of these fires has nothing to do with not being able to cut forests down, and everything to do with setting new heat records year after year and everything being dry as shit. You could cut down a half mile wide area around a blaze and a single gust of wind carrying a single flaming leaf renders that useless.

I think it's honestly a 'perfect storm' of both aspects. Due to climate change (yes it's real....the 'reasons' behind it can be argued/debated) natural disasters are clearly increasing in intensity. Hurricanes, tornados, wild fires.....rise in earthquakes......they're magnified more and more as each year passes by.

The 'debate' behind climate change is a curious one to me. I'm perfectly fine admitting that 'man' has not helped matters by a solid century and a half of dumping fossil fuel excrement into the environment.....additionally the waste from industry and manufacturing. I'm not a scientist and not all that intelligent but even I can see that 'we' haven't helped our environment. To 'deny' that seems silly to me.

BUT...I also think for as much as we know about our planet there's that much more that we don't know. The more and more we discover about it we can see that in it's existence it's had many climate changes and fluctuations. I think it's just as silly to dismiss the fact that this planet goes through climate changes naturally and it's going through one now....only, we may have accelerated it.

[bosk1]

I think it's honestly a 'perfect storm' of both aspects.

Yeah, that's pretty much what I was trying to say.  I just see no need to argue over the aspect that isn't really within our immediate control.  For those that are passionate about it, I get it.  But it seems silly to me to focus solely on that and dismiss other major factors as if they don't exist.

[TAC]

Bosk how is the air quality? Will I be able to breathe?

[bosk1]

Bosk how is the air quality? Will I be able to breathe?

It is awful.  I hear it is much better on the coast up here, but in the valley and up against the mountains, the smoke just sits here, and you can smell it constantly when you are outside.  Plus, as I said, you can't see the sky.  But it is better today than it has been in the past week.  Looking out my window, we have a few miles of visibility now, and it just looks like a really hazy day.  And I can see the sun, although I can't say the sky exactly looks "blue."

[Anguyen92]

My work is in Cypress and I reside in Garden Grove (about 10-15 minutes away from Disneyland and the local House of Blues).  You can see all of these smokey clouds and that makes you pause for concern.  I don't reside near anything like hills or any dusty terrain or anything like that, but I just hope it gets resolved as quickly as possible with minimum damage.  That's all I can hope for.

[Accelerando]

How close are you from Cypress, Accelerando? Be safe!!

Thanks! I live in Irvine, so Cypress is probably, what 17-18miles from me?

Took this picture of the front of my house about 2 hrs ago

My work is in Cypress and I reside in Garden Grove (about 10-15 minutes away from Disneyland and the local House of Blues).  You can see all of these smokey clouds and that makes you pause for concern.  I don't reside near anything like hills or any dusty terrain or anything like that, but I just hope it gets resolved as quickly as possible with minimum damage.  That's all I can hope for.

Yep, I had a video shoot at Disneyland yesterday and you could see the smoke from the parks!

[Accelerando]

And this was the view from Disney California Adventure yesterday. This was about 10am. By 5pm the smoke had spread.

[Accelerando]

Be safe, man.  Up north, we haven't seen the sky for over 2 weeks because of all the smoke in the air, even though there isn't a fire anywhere near us.  But that is nothing compared to actually being in immediate danger from the fires themselves.  It sucks.

Is all that smoke from the Napa County fires??

[bosk1]

Be safe, man.  Up north, we haven't seen the sky for over 2 weeks because of all the smoke in the air, even though there isn't a fire anywhere near us.  But that is nothing compared to actually being in immediate danger from the fires themselves.  It sucks.

Is all that smoke from the Napa County fires??

Hard to say which ones it is from.  There are so many.  I would guess the Napa County and Shasta County fires, mostly.  Like I said, the central valley is basically a big bowl that traps it all.  The sky here has looked like the picture you took from in front of your house for the last couple of weeks.

[Snow Dog]

For the past 3-4 weeks, southern Oregon has been socked in with wildfire smoke from a lot of fires nearby. It wasn’t too bad at first as the smoke would clear out with nightly winds. The past week, though, has seen Medford and the rest of the Rogue Valley where I live tread into unhealthy to hazardous air quality. You literally can’t do anything outside and not feel shitty.





You might actually be able to see the sun in that second photo, and even just a few minutes later, it disappeared, completely blotted out by the haze. It feels like being in the middle of a smoldering cigarette butt.

I’ve lived here now for ten years, and last year was the worst fire season I’d seen up to that point. This year has a great potential to beat that, as they’re predicting smoke to some extent until late October into November. Three of the last four summers have reached very poor air quality here. It’s slowly becoming the new reality of the forests of the west coast. My wife, who is more sensitive than most to the smoke, has said if it keeps happening like this every year, she doesn’t know if she can handle it. I initially balked at the idea of moving since we both generally love it here, but the more this goes on, the more it might be the right move. Even aside from the health effects, it’s such a downer to look outside at bleak dreariness.

And then there’s the off chance of a fire sweeping through the town here. Last year it was Santa Rosa. This year it was Redding, CA where the Carr Fire has destroyed nearly 1,200 homes. How long till it comes our turn? Granted, it’s still highly unlikely, but there’s still that chance. It’s certainly made my wife and I think about how to best prepare for such an event and what we would grab and get out with if it occurs.

[Stadler]

Honest question:  how do they name the fires?  Here in CT I keep hearing about the "Carr fire" and it took me a solid week to understand that it wasn't an old Chevy burning on the side of the PCH.  Kidding, a little bit, but not really. 


As for the fires, I can't speak to why California is burning (though I'm sure there's some shallow person out there thinking "karma!".  Kidding a lot of bit now) but here in CT the strict cracking down on burning locally has led to a virtual overtaking of the environment by ticks (and the diseases that come along with them).  We used to regularly burn out the leaves and underbrush in our  back yard/woods, and never really had a problem with ticks.   Now?  You want police at your house?  Light a fire in your backyard.  And I can't cut my lawn without flushing out my clothes for ticks.   I even got bit by one a  month or so ago, first time in 50 years.   

If I wasn't scared shitless of being "that guy", plus having a conscience, I'd eat the citation and burn out my woods anyway.   

[lordxizor]

Periodic controlled burning of all wooded and grassy areas would certainly help, but who's going to coordinate and monitor that? It's too big to leave to private land owners, but the government certainly doesn't have the resources.

[Stadler]

I don't know that it's too big for private landowners.  I suppose that depends how big the land is.   Just make the penalties for f***ing up legit.   

[Chino]

Honest question:  how do they name the fires?  Here in CT I keep hearing about the "Carr fire" and it took me a solid week to understand that it wasn't an old Chevy burning on the side of the PCH.  Kidding, a little bit, but not really. 


As for the fires, I can't speak to why California is burning (though I'm sure there's some shallow person out there thinking "karma!".  Kidding a lot of bit now) but here in CT the strict cracking down on burning locally has led to a virtual overtaking of the environment by ticks (and the diseases that come along with them).  We used to regularly burn out the leaves and underbrush in our  back yard/woods, and never really had a problem with ticks.   Now?  You want police at your house?  Light a fire in your backyard.  And I can't cut my lawn without flushing out my clothes for ticks.   I even got bit by one a  month or so ago, first time in 50 years.   

If I wasn't scared shitless of being "that guy", plus having a conscience, I'd eat the citation and burn out my woods anyway.

The problem out west is that because of the dryness, fires like this start even without a human introducing a flame. A bottle left in the woods can act as a magnifying glass when the sun reaches the proper angle and it starts a fire. I'm surprised you get hassled where you live for having an outdoor fire though. We have them all the time and haven't ever had any trouble. 

I was reading about the tick explosions in Connecticut recently. A lot of it seems to be tied to when we start getting our first snow falls the year before. I know that for the last 3 years, I haven't been able to get my lawn cleared out before winter set in. We either get snow too early, or the leaves stay on longer and don't all fall before winter. I end up having to wait until March/April to finish what should have been basic fall lawn cleanup. It gives the fuckers perfect shelter during the winter months. I'm constantly looking for ticks on my dogs and wear long pants if I'm going to be anywhere near the woods. My dog and I went on a 30 minute walk through some woods at Hop Brook a few weekends ago, and I pulled six off of him. Thankfully, they were all still just clinging to his fur. But even in the woods, where the burning of debris like you're describing was never really a thing, we are seeing massive explosions in tick populations.

[El Barto]

I don't know that it's too big for private landowners.  I suppose that depends how big the land is.   Just make the penalties for f***ing up legit.

I'm not familiar with your situation, but I have to ask, if some guy down the block burns your neighborhood to the ground is it really any consolation that he might go to jail? 

[Dublagent66]

I used to live in Idyllwild back in the early 70's which isn't too far from Hemet.  It's been quite a while but I'm no stranger to Cali wildfires.  I was 8 years old at the time and pretty damn scared.  Dark purple sky and ashes falling like snow.  We had to evacuate but luckily didn't lose our home.  So yeah, scare stuff and unfortunately some lose everything including their lives.  Right now, air quality in Phx has been bad for about a month from all the smoke.  Our air quality is usually bad anyway but now it's worse.

We all know the weather has been really dry and everything is overgrown.  Sometimes fires are naturally caused and some are human caused.  But, in all fairness, what Bosk said is absolutely true.  The national forests in northern California and Oregon have been grossly mismanaged and people are paying the price for that negligence.

[bosk1]

I used to live in Idyllwild back in the early 70's which isn't too far from Hemet.  It's been quite a while but I'm no stranger to Cali wildfires.  I was 8 years old at the time and pretty damn scared.  Dark purple sky and ashes falling like snow.  We had to evacuate but luckily didn't lose our home.  So yeah, scare stuff and unfortunately some lose everything including their lives.  Right now, air quality in Phx has been bad for about a month from all the smoke.  Our air quality is usually bad anyway but now it's worse.

We all know the weather has been really dry and everything is overgrown.  Sometimes fires are naturally caused and some are human caused.  But, in all fairness, what Bosk said is absolutely true.  The national forests in northern California and Oregon have been grossly mismanaged and people are paying the price for that negligence.

Thanks for, again, making my point better than I did.  That's what I was trying to say.  And, again, I'm not discounting what Chino said either.  I'm just discounting his discounting of my point. 

[Stadler]

I don't know that it's too big for private landowners.  I suppose that depends how big the land is.   Just make the penalties for f***ing up legit.

I'm not familiar with your situation, but I have to ask, if some guy down the block burns your neighborhood to the ground is it really any consolation that he might go to jail?

Of, of course not.   But for the most part, we're not California.  Chino is dead nuts right:  last three years, under the snow, is a blanket of leaves and below that, a haven for ants, ticks and all sorts of 6, 8 and more legged creatures.  I make that point, because the chances of burning down the neighborhood are, well, about the same as me voting for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. 

[JayOctavarium]

Honest question:  how do they name the fires?  Here in CT I keep hearing about the "Carr fire" and it took me a solid week to understand that it wasn't an old Chevy burning on the side of the PCH.  Kidding, a little bit, but not really. 
 

Usually based off of landmarks near it.  The Thomas Fire, which burned through my county in December, was named after the Thomas Aquinas College, which was a few miles away from where it started (I would have named it The Steckle Fire, as it started near a campground called Steckle Park, but I am not in charge....)



edit:
Actually, the "Day Fire", which burned through the half of my county 10 or so years ago that the Thomas Fire didnt touch, was named such as it started on Labour Day. So I don't know anymore lol.

[Accelerando]

Yep. In the case of the Holy Fire, it was started in Holy Jim Canyon

[Samsara]

Be safe, man.  Up north, we haven't seen the sky for over 2 weeks because of all the smoke in the air, even though there isn't a fire anywhere near us.  But that is nothing compared to actually being in immediate danger from the fires themselves.  It sucks.

And I hate to politicize the issue, but a big contributing factor is that state's response to environmental concerns.  The pendulum has swung SO far toward protecting EVERYTHING that we don't thin out the vegetation, engaged in planned deforestation, and controlled burn anymore, which creates vast amounts of dense, dry underbrush and tinder, which leads to these fires being much bigger and hotter than they otherwise would.  When you have countryside that is already somewhat of a natural tinderbox, this kind of approach is not sustainable, and all of us here are suffering for it in one way or another.

Bingo. My wife directly works on these forestry issues. And that's it, in a nutshell. Trust me when I say that this is another example of people who have beaten the drum for a more than a decade are finally getting heard. And it is a shame it has taken this long, and all this destruction. Hopefully, in the next few years, some of this will change. I am very much pro-environment. But like it or not, human beings need to be the priority. It's just where things are at.

But yeah, it is a nightmare right now. I saw blue sky for the first time this weekend...and a huge line of smoke on the horizon that made its way over us. My car was covered in ash for four straight mornings. Just crazy.

[Dream Team]

Honest question:  how do they name the fires?  Here in CT I keep hearing about the "Carr fire" and it took me a solid week to understand that it wasn't an old Chevy burning on the side of the PCH.  Kidding, a little bit, but not really. 


As for the fires, I can't speak to why California is burning (though I'm sure there's some shallow person out there thinking "karma!".  Kidding a lot of bit now) but here in CT the strict cracking down on burning locally has led to a virtual overtaking of the environment by ticks (and the diseases that come along with them).  We used to regularly burn out the leaves and underbrush in our  back yard/woods, and never really had a problem with ticks.   Now?  You want police at your house?  Light a fire in your backyard.  And I can't cut my lawn without flushing out my clothes for ticks.   I even got bit by one a  month or so ago, first time in 50 years.   

If I wasn't scared shitless of being "that guy", plus having a conscience, I'd eat the citation and burn out my woods anyway.

The problem out west is that because of the dryness, fires like this start even without a human introducing a flame. A bottle left in the woods can act as a magnifying glass when the sun reaches the proper angle and it starts a fire. I'm surprised you get hassled where you live for having an outdoor fire though. We have them all the time and haven't ever had any trouble. 

I was reading about the tick explosions in Connecticut recently. A lot of it seems to be tied to when we start getting our first snow falls the year before. I know that for the last 3 years, I haven't been able to get my lawn cleared out before winter set in. We either get snow too early, or the leaves stay on longer and don't all fall before winter. I end up having to wait until March/April to finish what should have been basic fall lawn cleanup. It gives the fuckers perfect shelter during the winter months. I'm constantly looking for ticks on my dogs and wear long pants if I'm going to be anywhere near the woods. My dog and I went on a 30 minute walk through some woods at Hop Brook a few weekends ago, and I pulled six off of him. Thankfully, they were all still just clinging to his fur. But even in the woods, where the burning of debris like you're describing was never really a thing, we are seeing massive explosions in tick populations.

Actually the ticks have made it all the way up here to VT. My mom was just sick from one for 2 weeks.