2017 NFL thread v. Patriots Dynasty

[KevShmev]

I have no problem with a prospect having a large say in where they are going to end up working for the next 6+ years. 

Doesn't that undermine the whole point of a draft?

I agree - playing professional sports is a privilege, not a right.  If you want to play, you go where you are drafted to.  You may not like it, but not everyone can play for the same, winning team.

While I agree with the bolded, the amount of power and control NFL franchises have over players they draft is so absurd that, again, I have no issue with players doing what they can to influence where they end up going. 

[mikeyd23]

While I agree with the bolded, the amount of power and control NFL franchises have over players they draft is so absurd that, again, I have no issue with players doing what they can to influence where they end up going.

That's kinda where I fall with this as well, if I'm not mistaken, the NFL is one of only a few leagues (at least in the US) where the players contracts or a portion of their contracts aren't guaranteed at all. Meaning a team can cut a guy anytime and the contract is simply cut off. That's a lot of power for a franchise to have, so I'm okay with the players trying to get leverage however they can.

[King Postwhore]

So I heard this stat today.  If the Pats made the SB, Brady would be in playing in the SB for half his playing career.


Discounting the first year (2000) on the bench as a 4th string QB (imaging carrying 4 QB's on your roster?) from 2001 to 2017 Brady would have gone to the SB 8 of 16 years.  That's nuts.

Still have to make it this year for this to be true.

[Cool Chris]

That's kinda where I fall with this as well, if I'm not mistaken, the NFL is one of only a few leagues (at least in the US) where the players contracts or a portion of their contracts aren't guaranteed at all. Meaning a team can cut a guy anytime and the contract is simply cut off.

Lots of employees are 'At will' and can be fired at any time. I understand playing pro football is its own beast, careers are short, healthy implications are huge, but why should a franchise not be able to release a guy they don't want on their team?

[King Postwhore]

It is true that the contracts are not guaranteed while other league have guaranteed contacts.  That's why there is the money up front.  Front loaded for many players.

[mikeyd23]

That's kinda where I fall with this as well, if I'm not mistaken, the NFL is one of only a few leagues (at least in the US) where the players contracts or a portion of their contracts aren't guaranteed at all. Meaning a team can cut a guy anytime and the contract is simply cut off.

Lots of employees are 'At will' and can be fired at any time. I understand playing pro football is its own beast, careers are short, healthy implications are huge, but why should a franchise not be able to release a guy they don't want on their team?

They totally should be able to do it if they want. But it's worth pointing out that the MLB, NHL, and NBA are not like that. Players can't just get cut like they can in the NFL (and be totally out their contract money), therefore NFL franchises hold a lot more power over players than in other pro-leagues. That makes me feel less bad for teams when players are trying to leverage power when they have some, that's all.

[pg1067]

While I agree with the bolded, the amount of power and control NFL franchises have over players they draft is so absurd that, again, I have no issue with players doing what they can to influence where they end up going.

That's kinda where I fall with this as well, if I'm not mistaken, the NFL is one of only a few leagues (at least in the US) where the players contracts or a portion of their contracts aren't guaranteed at all. Meaning a team can cut a guy anytime and the contract is simply cut off. That's a lot of power for a franchise to have, so I'm okay with the players trying to get leverage however they can.

I'm on the same page, and keep in mind that a player's "leverage" is limited to refusing to play and sitting on his thumbs (or going to some D-list league) until he is either eligible to be drafted by someone else or becomes a free agent.  I don't know exactly what the NFL CBA says about those things, but I'm not aware of anyone who actually sat out and went back into the draft or sat out long enough to become a free agent.  There's no way in hell that the NFL would adopt a CBA that binds a drafted player in perpetuity to the team that drafts him (and I'm skeptical that such a provision would even be legal).

So I heard this stat today.  If the Pats made the SB, Brady would be in playing in the SB for half his playing career.


Discounting the first year (2000) on the bench as a 4th string QB (imaging carrying 4 QB's on your roster?) from 2001 to 2017 Brady would have gone to the SB 8 of 16 years.  That's nuts.

Still have to make it this year for this to be true.

Even if you discount the 2000 season, Brady has played 17, not 16, seasons, and 8 < 1/2 x 17.  Or are you also discounting the 2008 season?

[Stadler]

That's kinda where I fall with this as well, if I'm not mistaken, the NFL is one of only a few leagues (at least in the US) where the players contracts or a portion of their contracts aren't guaranteed at all. Meaning a team can cut a guy anytime and the contract is simply cut off.

Lots of employees are 'At will' and can be fired at any time. I understand playing pro football is its own beast, careers are short, healthy implications are huge, but why should a franchise not be able to release a guy they don't want on their team?

They totally should be able to do it if they want. But it's worth pointing out that the MLB, NHL, and NBA are not like that. Players can't just get cut like they can in the NFL (and be totally out their contract money), therefore NFL franchises hold a lot more power over players than in other pro-leagues. That makes me feel less bad for teams when players are trying to leverage power when they have some, that's all.

There are far more options though, in those other sports.   Hoops players are getting crazy money playing in Europe.  Anyone in the States worth their salt in hockey is playing in Canada or for their country before going, you guessed it, to Europe.   Baseball:   South America, Japan.   There are strong, competitive minor leagues in all those sports as well.   Don't know of one real competitive alternate league for football other than the CFL. 

There are also more players on one football team than an entire baseball, hockey and basketball team, so there's that.   

[mikeyd23]

There are far more options though, in those other sports.   Hoops players are getting crazy money playing in Europe.  Anyone in the States worth their salt in hockey is playing in Canada or for their country before going, you guessed it, to Europe.   Baseball:   South America, Japan.   There are strong, competitive minor leagues in all those sports as well.   Don't know of one real competitive alternate league for football other than the CFL. 

There are also more players on one football team than an entire baseball, hockey and basketball team, so there's that.

Umm, I don't know if you've heard but the XFL might be making a come back! 

[King Postwhore]

I was discounting the 2001 just because he didn't play.  It just plays into the 50% but really the percentage is less.   I really was pointing out since he became a starter.

[pg1067]

I was discounting the 2001 just because he didn't play.  It just plays into the 50% but really the percentage is less.   I really was pointing out since he became a starter.

2001 was Brady's first season as a starter (after taking over after Bledsoe's injury in the second game).  2000 was his rookie season, when he started as a 4th stringer and finished as the #2 QB.
 However, even if you don't count the 2000 season, Brady has played 17 seasons (2001-17).  The only vaguely legitimate way you can come up with 16 is by ALSO discounting 2008, when he only played part of the season opener and then sat out the rest of the season because of an injury.

[King Postwhore]

Brady was not the #2 QB until 2001 and came into the Jets game which was game 2 of the season.  I was there.  They carried 4 QB's that year on the roster which was unheard of.

Drew Bledsoe
John Friesz
Michael Bishop
Tom Brady

Not counting 2000 and 2008  Oops!!   Basically his full seasons as a starter he's made it to the Superbowl 7 times and this would make 8 out of 16 full seasons playing.

BTW, I was a season ticket holder for the Pats from 1986(as an 18 year old) to 2012.

[KevShmev]

An even funnier stat is: Bill Belichick was the head coach the last time the Cleveland Browns won a playoff game.

[King Postwhore]

An even funnier stat is: Bill Belichick was the head coach the last time the Cleveland Browns won a playoff game.

Against the Pats!

[mikeyd23]

An even funnier stat is: Bill Belichick was the head coach the last time the Cleveland Browns won a playoff game.

That's awesome 

[Stadler]

Brady was not the #2 QB until 2001 and came into the Jets game which was game 2 of the season.  I was there.  They carried 4 QB's that year on the roster which was unheard of.

Drew Bledsoe
John Friesz
Michael Bishop
Tom Brady

Not counting 2000 and 2008  Oops!!   Basically his full seasons as a starter he's made it to the Superbowl 7 times and this would make 8 out of 16 full seasons playing.

BTW, I was a season ticket holder for the Pats from 1986(as an 18 year old) to 2012.

Speaking of career stats, Michael Bishop just sold his 250th life insurance policy, and this winter, John Friesz will likely plow his 500th driveway!!!  Go guys!

[El Barto]

Could be worse. At least they're not doing the Icky Shuffle to sell steaks door to door.

[TAC]

I remember some serious Michael Bishop hysteria.

[bosk1]

Some closing thoughts on the end of the regular season as we head into the playoffs:

1.  For the first time in awhile, I am really optimistic about the 49ers.
2.  I feel bad for Alex Smith.  I REALLY like the guy and want him to get a ring.  But while this team is still dangerous and capable, they aren't what they were the first few weeks of the season.  And his window is closing.
3.  NE can definitely be had, but they look dangerous.  What Brady and BB are doing is historic.  And while I'm firmly rooting for KC this post season, and would root for a few other playoff teams over NE when it comes to it, I'm having fun watching NE do what they do, and I won't be disappointed if they win it all again and further cement themselves as perhaps the greatest dynasty the NFL has ever seen.
4.  I cannot overstate just how happy and surprised I am that Seattle did not make the playoffs.

Picks for this weekend:
Ten @ KC
Atl @ LAR
Buff @ Jax
Car @ NO

Probably no real surprises.  But wildcard weekend typically doesn't surprise.  I think the AFC wildcard teams are pretty weak, and I don't think those games will really be contests once they get late into the third quarter.  Carolina is legit.  But I think the Saints are just the stronger team and will be able to pull away late.  But I felt like I had to pick one wildcard team, and Atlanta seems like the most likely.  They certainly have their issues.  But they can be dangerous, and they are hot after last week's win.  The Rams are a powerhouse.  But even though they were resting their key starters last week, I think the manner in which they lost that game was a shock.  They are cold and are perhaps ripe for an upset.  But I wouldn't be the least bit shocked if I were wrong on that pick.

[El Barto]

ESPN's essentially reporting the end of the Patriots dynasty. I have no idea how much is accurate, but I suspect it's a great deal. Raises some interesting questions about the future, in any case. Trading Brady would have made more sense than the JG thing, certainly in retrospect, and failing that it puts Belichick in a rough situation. If Patricia and McDaniels bolt then he's effectively going into a rebuilding project, breaking in two new coordinators while trying to train the future QB that he doesn't even have yet. No idea if he's interested in such a challenge at this point in his career, and if so, does he want to undertake it with Kraft? Brady, on the other hand, might well appreciate trying to cement his GOAT status by playing outside of the Patriots organization. If he could win for another team at 41 it would be a monumental achievement.

A couple of interesting things to ponder. Would Garopollo return to the Patriots if they were willing to pay him TB money? That could actually be a pretty slick move if Brady proved to be the odd man out. Bill is almost certainly not focusing on his personal future right now, which makes for a dicey situation with the coordinators. I always assumed that the next Patriots HC was McDaniels, or less likely Patricia. Yet that's an unlikely scenario if they won't even discuss Bill's future until after the SB.

In any case, we could be seeing a very different team next year.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/hotread180105/beginning-end-new-england-patriots-robert-kraft-tom-brady-bill-belichick-internal-power-struggle

[bosk1]

I think ESPN's reporting of the "end of a dynasty" is both jumping the gun and way overstating the issue.  However, that doesn't make the specifics any less real or less interesting. 

As far as the JG trade, it's interesting what is being reported as far as BB's stance on not wanting to do it and being overridden.  But that aside, it's easy to "Monday morning quarterback" it now that JG is 5-0 with the '9ers and practically looking like the second coming.  Given his contract status, etc., they got what they could for him, and this shouldn't be seen as a "bad" trade for the Pats.  I mean, fair play for those who want to argue that they should have paid him whatever he wanted and either traded Brady next year or the year after.  But that option aside, if they were going to trade him, the fact that he is now exceeding expectations in SF doesn't mean it was a bad trade.  Under the circumstances, it wasn't.

It would be really interesting if he leveraged his performance in SF to get the the Pats to offer him enough money to come back, and he actually did so.  49ers fans would be PISSED, and rightly so, IMO.  But, man, talk about an intriguing story.  That would be one for the ages if it happened and a continuing dynasty (ala Steve Young era 49ers) was built around him.

[Stadler]

I'm taking a lot of this with a grain of salt for two reasons.   One, who are the sources on this?  Two, why now? 

On Garoppolo, I believe I said here (it can be checked) that there was every chance in the world he'd be back.   The Pats aren't dumb - well, Belichick and Brady aren't dumb.  I'm out on Kraft as anything other than a benevolent wallet.  Brady isn't stupid; he knows full well the presence - or not - of Garoppolo doesn't lengthen or shorten his career by even one game.   When he's done, he will be out, Garoppolo or no Garoppolo.   

[El Barto]

Bosk: Given the circumstances of Bill's hiring by the Patriots and cocktail-napkin resignation as HC of the NYJ, the JG possibility isn't unrealistic. That's also a real possibility with one of the coordinators. Just because somebody signs McDaniels doesn't mean he won't jump ship a day later to return to NE.

As for hindsight and the JG trade, I never expected him to be great, but I'm not Bill Belichick. If Bill expected him to be great then I think we can safely call it a bad deal. He clearly thought he was the future of the franchise, and he's looking like it in SF. Dumping him for a #2 was a bad deal. All the more so because he was worth so much more 4 months earlier.


Stadler: My prediction was that Brady would be gone before he ran out of gas. That's how NE does things. If JG were around I think this would have been the season. It seems to me the sweet-spot for all parties concerned. Without JG they're kind of stuck right now since Hoyer is certainly not the heir apparent. If the stories are correct, I'd surmise that Kraft doesn't buy into The Patriot Way to the same degree as Bill, and loyalty to TB took priority. 

[bosk1]

Bosk: Given the circumstances of Bill's hiring by the Patriots and cocktail-napkin resignation as HC of the NYJ, the JG possibility isn't unrealistic. That's also a real possibility with one of the coordinators. Just because somebody signs McDaniels doesn't mean he won't jump ship a day later to return to NE.

No, I'm not arguing that.  I'm just saying it is premature to make any assumptions.  You may be right.  I'm not saying it isn't possible.  But as of right now, I don't buy the stories of the "end."  Yet.

As for hindsight and the JG trade, I never expected him to be great, but I'm not Bill Belichick. If Bill expected him to be great then I think we can safely call it a bad deal. He clearly thought he was the future of the franchise, and he's looking like it in SF. Dumping him for a #2 was a bad deal. All the more so because he was worth so much more 4 months earlier.

But you are conflating a few issues.  If there is a long term plan of bringing him back, and it works, then it wasn't a bad deal.  And that isn't the scenario I'm talking about anyway.  I'm also not talking about whether the deal should be viewed in terms of keep him vs. don't keep him.  I'm assuming he was going to be gone.  I'm only looking at it from the standpoint of whether or not, IF they were going to trade him, they got their money's worth.  With that in mind, I don't think they could have done any better--at least, not in the NFC.  And there's no way they trade him to a potential AFC rival, even if they would have gotten the sun, moon, and stars in return as part of the deal.  Yeah, he might be "worth" more.  But it is unlikely that they could have gotten more.  That's just the reality of the situation at the time of the trade.  If you think they could have gotten a better deal from another team, I'd like to know who and what you think they would have paid.

[El Barto]

Oh, I never figured it was part of a long term plan. That would have been some Ernst Blofeld level scheming. I just figure that it's not outside the realm of possibilities that they bring him back, since he is a free agent, and it would be fine strategy.

And while they wouldn't have given him to the Jets, they could have sent him to Houston or Cleveland. Denver was probably ruled out. Also, might the 49ers have given more last July? Hell, I'm not sure they wouldn't have thrown in a 2019 pick on top of the 2nd NE got when they actually did trade him. 

Personally, I never assumed he'd be gone. I figured there was a solid chance they kept him and jettisoned TB.

[King Postwhore]

Patriots released a joint statement.


https://www.weei.com/blogs/ryan-hannable/patriots-release-joint-statement-addressing-espn-story

[bosk1]

Fascinating.  Like the article itself, it is well-written and fairly persuasive (for what it is).  But it also is clearly advocating something that may or may not prove out to be factual and can only really be accurately assessed once it is far in the rearview mirror of history.  Or, to put it more plainly, "We'll just see about that."  :

As far as the article itself, it is fascinating.  And if supported by credible sources, it is VERY well-written from a journalistic standpoint, even if it were to later turn out that some of the facts are wrong.  It does appear to be well-researched and thorough, and appears to reach reasonable conclusions based on the facts that are presented.  It's a fascinating look behind the curtain, even if it ends up being wrong. 

[El Barto]

Fascinating.  Like the article itself, it is well-written and fairly persuasive (for what it is).  But it also is clearly advocating something that may or may not prove out to be factual and can only really be accurately assessed once it is far in the rearview mirror of history.  Or, to put it more plainly, "We'll just see about that."  :

As far as the article itself, it is fascinating.  And if supported by credible sources, it is VERY well-written from a journalistic standpoint, even if it were to later turn out that some of the facts are wrong.  It does appear to be well-researched and thorough, and appears to reach reasonable conclusions based on the facts that are presented.  It's a fascinating look behind the curtain, even if it ends up being wrong.

The ESPN story reminds me of the WaPo and NYT articles we were seeing in the first months of the Trump administration. They're reporting things that make perfect sense, citing unnamed but seemingly well informed sources, and in both cases we'll probably never really know just how accurate they are. My take on both is that there's very likely a high amount of truthiness to them, though the specifics are generally questionable, at best. It would seem improbable to me if there weren't some degree of infighting going on in both camps, much as described. Just not necessarily to the degree or of the sort being reported.

Of course the difference is that NE releases a short, succinct denial of the whole thing. The White House would spend 3 days disparaging ESPN and suing staffers for violating NDAs while maintaining that the cry-baby coach gets along just fine with his self-entitled quarterback and shit-for-brains owner.

[Stadler]

On another level, not sure the remaining NFL teams want to face a pissed off Patriots team with something to prove.   I'm Belichick, tonight, after 126 hours of game film, I'm kicking back, pouring a cabernet, and giving thanks to the Gods that sometimes shit just falls into your lap. 

[TAC]

I'm not sure what I missed from the Rappaport story. It doesn't really say anything.

According to the story Rapoport says that Garopollo is the future franchise QB two days before they jettison him. I suspect somebody within the Patriots fed him that story hoping to increase his value.

Oh, ok, I wasn't sure what I was missing. I mean Rapp mentions it on a podcast. I think it's been clear all along that they viewed him as the future franchise QB.
I don't think anyone handed Rapp any new quotes on the subject.

They already have Schefter to carry their water.

I've always suspected it was bullshit. I guess now we'll find out.

I guess we found out!

[El Barto]

I'm not sure what I missed from the Rappaport story. It doesn't really say anything.

According to the story Rapoport says that Garopollo is the future franchise QB two days before they jettison him. I suspect somebody within the Patriots fed him that story hoping to increase his value.

Oh, ok, I wasn't sure what I was missing. I mean Rapp mentions it on a podcast. I think it's been clear all along that they viewed him as the future franchise QB.
I don't think anyone handed Rapp any new quotes on the subject.

They already have Schefter to carry their water.

I've always suspected it was bullshit. I guess now we'll find out.

I guess we found out!

Is your point that JG looks like he might be a franchise QB based on his play, or that he might have been TB's heir apparent based on the article? Regardless, it's looking like both might be true in a big way, but nothing's certain yet. In any case I could very well have been wrong, as it appears now.

[TAC]

Not going at you, but I remember having the conversation at the deadline. 

I haven't had a chance to read the ESPN article yet, nor do I have a subscription to Boston Sports Journal, where Greg Bedard has even more details, apparently. But on the day of the trade, two things were very clear:
1. Belichick believed Jimmy G was the future franchise QB
2. The trade had Kraft's involvement written all over it.


So Belichick sent him to a place that he should have a good situation. Belichick has a great relationships with the Shanahans, and very much likes John Lynch.

But as far as the return goes, I didn't think that was important to Belichick. With only getting a 2nd, he basically said to Kraft, "There, he's gone. Happy now?"

The other thing that has happened since is that they signed Kenny Britt, who Kraft wanted no part of a couple of years ago. That was a total "spite" move by Belichick. He then signs the biggest D-bag in the league in Harrison. The ever so image conscious Kraft cannot be thrilled. Hell, Belichick would probably re-sign Aaron Hernandez if he could just to piss off Kraft.

It would not surprise me if Belichick walks after this year. Patricia will absolutely go if offered a job.

[King Postwhore]

I think the scenario is more like they knew they couldn't franchise Jimmy G and pay Brady.  Brady has played so well that they really couldn't let him go like they did with Bledsoe, so he was going to trade him away and not put him in the AFC

[El Barto]

Not going at you, but I remember having the conversation at the deadline. 

I haven't had a chance to read the ESPN article yet, nor do I have a subscription to Boston Sports Journal, where Greg Bedard has even more details, apparently. But on the day of the trade, two things were very clear:
1. Belichick believed Jimmy G was the future franchise QB
2. The trade had Kraft's involvement written all over it.


So Belichick sent him to a place that he should have a good situation. Belichick has a great relationships with the Shanahans, and very much likes John Lynch.

But as far as the return goes, I didn't think that was important to Belichick. With only getting a 2nd, he basically said to Kraft, "There, he's gone. Happy now?"

The other thing that has happened since is that they signed Kenny Britt, who Kraft wanted no part of a couple of years ago. That was a total "spite" move by Belichick. He then signs the biggest D-bag in the league in Harrison. The ever so image conscious Kraft cannot be thrilled. Hell, Belichick would probably re-sign Aaron Hernandez if he could just to piss off Kraft.

It would not surprise me if Belichick walks after this year. Patricia will absolutely go if offered a job.

Not arguing with your interesting analysis, but I don't think Bill has ever been as concerned about image as Kraft. Drunk dude from Arizona demonstrated that pretty nicely.

And is Patricia discontent? I thought he had turned down a job in the past.

Something that intrigues me is what has changed. For 20 years Kraft has been content to largely let coaches do their thing. Now he orders a trade? That's kind of a fundamental shift, and if that kind of shift is taking place I wouldn't be surprised to see Bill retire, either.

[El Barto]

I think the scenario is more like they knew they couldn't franchise Jimmy G and pay Brady.  Brady has played so well that they really couldn't let him go like they did with Bledsoe, so he was going to trade him away and not put him in the AFC

If Bill really thought JG was the future of the franchise there shouldn't have been much question about it. Trade Brady. What TB has done is remarkable, but we all know the floor will eventually fall out. He might have 3 more years left in him, but is that worth jeopardizing the long term future?