Author Topic: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest  (Read 5249 times)

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Online Evermind

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #70 on: March 30, 2017, 12:28:35 PM »
The Dream Sequencer Survivor has ended, and here's what we've got:

The Dream Sequencer Survivor Top 3:

1. My House on Mars
2. 2084
3. And the Druids Turn to Stone

The Dream Sequencer Predictions:

(Limegreen means the prediction was fully correct and scores respectively 5, 3 and 2 points for 1st, 2nd and 3rd place. Orange means the song is in the Top 3, but the prediction was wrong about the song's exact placement, it always scores 1 point. Red means the song was eliminated before the Top 3, obviously it scores 0 points.)

425: 1. My House of Mars / 2. And the Druids Turn to Stone / 3. 2084
Elite: 1. And the Druids Turn to Stone / 2. The First Man of Earth / 3. My House on Mars
home: 1. And the Druids Turn to Stone / 2. Carried by the Wind / 3. Temple of the Cat
Kwyjibo: 1. 2084 / 2. And the Druids Turn to Stone / 3. My House of Mars
MirrorMask: 1. 2084 / 2. My House on Mars / 3. One Small Step
Nick: 1. And the Druids Turn to Stone / 2. My House on Mars / 3. The First Man on Earth
Parama: 1. And the Druids Turn to Stone / 2. 2084 / 3. My House on Mars
Scorpion: 1. My House on Mars / 2. And the Druids Turn to Stone / 3. One Small Step
Tomislav95: 1. And the Druids Turn to Stone / 2. Dragon on the Sea / 3. The First Man on Earth
Train of Naught: 1. And the Druids Turn to Stone / 2. 2084 / 3. Carried by the Wind
twosuitsluke: 1. And the Druids Turn to Stone / 2. The First Man of Earth / 3. Carried by the Wind

Evermind: 1. My House on Mars / 2. And the Druids Turn to Stone / 3. 2084

The Scoreboard:

1. 425 - 25
1. Scorpion - 25

3. Kwyjibo - 23
4. Parama - 18
5. Tomislav95 - 15
6. MirrorMask - 14
7. Train of Naught - 12
8. Elite - 7
8. twosuitsluke - 7
10. Nick - 6
10. home - 5

Evermind - 23

This might be just the least amount of totally correct predictions so far! Look how little green there are in the predictions. Still, 425 manages to grab seven points and get to the top again, along with Scorpion, who snatches six points for this album. Kwyjibo loses his first place, but still remains in the Top 3 with 23 points total. Behind them are Parama, Tomislav, MirrorMask and Train, all with the double-digit score. Other participants are lagging behind so far, but you never know how these polls will turn out next.

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #71 on: March 30, 2017, 12:31:42 PM »
With 7 people predicting Druids would finish first, how the hell did it end up in third place?
Hey dude slow the fuck down so we can finish together at the same time.  :biggrin:
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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #72 on: March 30, 2017, 12:33:20 PM »
Well, at least I'm not losing positions... I'll settle for being at the feet of the podium  ;D (but it would be glorious to win one fo the rounds where I completely made up the predictions without even hearing the album!)
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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #73 on: March 30, 2017, 12:40:40 PM »
With 7 people predicting Druids would finish first, how the hell did it end up in third place?

I think the issue was that I created the poll at the weekend. Some of our participants probably weren't there to vote.

Offline Kwyjibo

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #74 on: March 30, 2017, 01:24:12 PM »
I still can be in the top 10 at the end of it all  ;D

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #75 on: March 30, 2017, 05:00:15 PM »
I'm doing far better than I expected. What the hell. :lol
scorpion is my favorite deathcore lobster
Hey, the length is fine :azn: Thanks!

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #76 on: March 31, 2017, 01:38:17 PM »
I was just emailing with Ruslan, and while I'm joining late, I've given him my picks.  I'm here just for pride - not really interested in the prizes anyway (I have the artbook, and don't have a turntable).  I didn't look at the results of TFE, AF, or TDS before submitting my picks for them, and while I knew the ITEC results, I gave him my honest list of what I would've thought would be the top 3.

So, posting mostly to follow and get the updates in my feed.
Can you imagine some alien race comes to a large nebula they've never seen before, and it just turns out it's the Federation's dumping ground for space-smile?
And TAC can suck it  :biggrin:, this is heavy in all the right places.  :tup

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #77 on: April 01, 2017, 11:47:05 AM »
I'm doing far better than I expected. What the hell. :lol
Break the mold, let's shake the ground, wreak havoc!

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #78 on: April 05, 2017, 11:58:18 AM »
Adding Chad's predictions. He isn't competing for the prize, as he said in his post, so I'll place him next to me at the scoreboard.

The Final Experiment:

1. Eyes of Time / 2. Ayreon's Fate / 3. The Awareness (1 point)

Actual Fantasy:

1. Beyond the Last Horizon / 2. Back on Planet Earth / 3. The Stranger Within (1 point)

Into the Electric Castle:

1. Isis and Osiris / 2. The Two Gates / 3. Across the Rainbow Bridge (5+1 points)

The Dream Sequencer:

1. The First Man on Earth / 2. Temple of the Cat / 3. 2084 (1 point)

The Scoreboard:

1. 425 - 25
1. Scorpion - 25

3. Kwyjibo - 23
4. Parama - 18
5. Tomislav95 - 15
6. MirrorMask - 14
7. Train of Naught - 12
8. Elite - 7
8. twosuitsluke - 7
10. Nick - 6
10. home - 5

Evermind - 23
jingle.boy - 9

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #79 on: April 05, 2017, 12:17:03 PM »
Those are some wacky predictions

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #80 on: April 05, 2017, 01:02:10 PM »
Man, I suck at knowing your guys' tastes.
Can you imagine some alien race comes to a large nebula they've never seen before, and it just turns out it's the Federation's dumping ground for space-smile?
And TAC can suck it  :biggrin:, this is heavy in all the right places.  :tup

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #81 on: April 05, 2017, 01:06:03 PM »
Man, I suck at knowing your guys' tastes.

When in doubt, pick the longest song for the winner

(Wait for this to bite me in the ass pretty soon  :lol )
I use my sig to pimp some bands from Italy! Check out Elvenking (Power / Folk metal), Folkstone (Rock / Medieval metal), Arcana Opera (Gothic/Noir/Heavy metal) and the beautiful voice of Elisa!

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #82 on: April 05, 2017, 01:09:12 PM »
Man, I suck at knowing your guys' tastes.

When in doubt, pick the longest song for the winner

(Wait for this to bite me in the ass pretty soon  :lol )

No kidding, right!  It never fails that most prog boards automatically think longer = better... even when it isn't the case.
Can you imagine some alien race comes to a large nebula they've never seen before, and it just turns out it's the Federation's dumping ground for space-smile?
And TAC can suck it  :biggrin:, this is heavy in all the right places.  :tup

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #83 on: April 05, 2017, 01:18:22 PM »
I don't think that's unanimously true but it actually holds decently true for arjen's stuff, he seems to just excel the most when writing 9-12 minute tracks

Offline RoeDent

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #84 on: April 06, 2017, 01:19:30 PM »

No kidding, right!  It never fails that most prog boards automatically think longer = better... even when it isn't the case.

But that thinking is based on the fact that so many of prog's greatest moments in the past have been the epics. Supper's Ready. Close to the Edge. 2112. Octavarium. Just four examples. So the long songs are always going to get extra attention/scrutiny because we're on the lookout for the next Great Epic.
And you may ask yourself, "How do I work this?"

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #85 on: April 07, 2017, 01:57:13 PM »
I don't really think it's true for all Arjen's stuff, at least for me it isn't. Star One, in my opinion, excels at shorter songs, and both longer tracks are a bit underwhelming, up to the point that I wouldn't put them in my Top 5 for the respective albums.

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #86 on: April 07, 2017, 02:06:01 PM »
Oh really now  :corn

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #87 on: April 27, 2017, 12:24:00 PM »
Here's the update for Flight of the Migrator Survivor:

Flight of the Migrator Survivor Top 3:

1. Into the Black Hole
2. Dawn of a Million Souls
3. Chaos

Flight of the Migrator Predictions:

(Limegreen means the prediction was fully correct and scores respectively 5, 3 and 2 points for 1st, 2nd and 3rd place. Orange means the song is in the Top 3, but the prediction was wrong about the song's exact placement, it always scores 1 point. Red means the song was eliminated before the Top 3, obviously it scores 0 points.)

425: 1. Into the Black Hole / 2. Dawn of a Million Souls / 3. Chaos
Elite: 1. Into the Black Hole / 2. Dawn of a Million Souls / 3. Journey on the Waves of Time
home: 1. Into the Black Hole / 2. Dawn of a Million Souls / 3. To the Quasar
Kwyjibo: 1. Dawn of a Million Souls / 2. Into the Black Hole / 3. To the Quasar
MirrorMask: 1. Into the Black Hole / 2. Dawn of a Million Souls / 3. The New Migrator
Nick: 1. Into the Black Hole / 2. Dawn of a Million Souls / 3. Through the Wormhole
Parama: 1. Dawn of a Million Souls / 2. Into the Black Hole / 3. The New Migrator
Scorpion: 1. Into the Black Hole / 2. Dawn of a Million Souls / 3. Chaos
Tomislav95: 1. Into the Black Hole / 2. Dawn of a Million Souls / 3. Chaos
Train of Naught: 1. Into the Black Hole / 2. Dawn of a Million Souls / 3. Chaos
twosuitsluke: 1. Chaos / 2. Into the Black Hole / 3. Dawn of a Million Souls

Evermind: 1. Into the Black Hole / 2. Dawn of a Million Souls / 3. Chaos
jingle.boy: 1. Into the Black Hole / 2. Dawn of a Million Souls / 3. To the Quasar

The Scoreboard:

1. 425 - 35
1. Scorpion - 35

3. Kwyjibo - 25
3. Tomislav95 - 25
5. MirrorMask - 22
5. Train of Naught - 22
7. Parama - 20
8. Elite - 15
9. Nick - 14
10. home - 13
11. twosuitsluke - 10

Evermind - 33
jingle.boy - 17

This album, apparently, was the easiest to predict! Four eligible participants did a clean sweep—two of our leaders, 425 and Scorpion, among them—and another four eligible participants guessed the Top 2 order correcty. Those who didn't predict this album quite right took quite a heavy blow, losing a few places on the scoreboard, except for Kwyjibo—despite scoring only two points, he's still fighting for the Top 3, currently tied with Tomislav, who jumped there from his fifth place.

Next are MirrorMask and Train, who are both pretty close to the Top 3—really, except the first two participants running away with the 10-points lead, the next few positions are pretty close. Luke is closing the whole list with the meager 10 points, but I'm pretty sure there will be opportunities to gather more points in the future! At least we're all in the double digits stage now. ;)

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #88 on: April 27, 2017, 12:39:07 PM »
Cool, I'm hanging in there! I will savor this moment 'cause I royally messed up the Space Metal predictions  :lol
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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #89 on: April 27, 2017, 12:55:28 PM »
Should've done more predictions to my tastes  :corn

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #90 on: April 28, 2017, 01:46:35 AM »
Oh dear god. I'm pretty sure I'm gonna fail hard at THE so I may need to get comfortable at the bottom  :lol

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #91 on: April 28, 2017, 02:37:44 AM »
The Human Equation will be hard. So many songs, of which everyone is good, and there's not a long epic (yeah, maybe Trauma and the final song) that stands out above the others. It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.
I use my sig to pimp some bands from Italy! Check out Elvenking (Power / Folk metal), Folkstone (Rock / Medieval metal), Arcana Opera (Gothic/Noir/Heavy metal) and the beautiful voice of Elisa!

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #92 on: April 30, 2017, 07:26:54 AM »
And here's the one for Space Metal Survivor:

Space Metal Survivor Top 3:

1. The Eye of Ra
2. Master of Darkness
3. Set Your Controls

Space Metal Predictions:

(Limegreen means the prediction was fully correct and scores respectively 5, 3 and 2 points for 1st, 2nd and 3rd place. Orange means the song is in the Top 3, but the prediction was wrong about the song's exact placement, it always scores 1 point. Red means the song was eliminated before the Top 3, obviously it scores 0 points.)

425: 1. Intergalactic Space Crusaders / 2. The Eye of Ra / 3. High Moon
Elite: 1. Starchild / 2. The Eye of Ra / 3. Master of Darkness
home: 1. Set Your Controls / 2. Starchild / 3. Intergalactic Space Crusaders
Kwyjibo: 1. The Eye of Ra / 2. High Moon / 3. Songs of the Ocean
MirrorMask: 1. Starchild / 2. The Eye of Ra / 3. Songs of the Ocean
Nick: 1. Sandrider / 2. Master of Darkness / 3. Set Your Controls
Parama: 1. Intergalactic Space Crusaders / 2. The Eye of Ra / 3. Starchild
Scorpion: 1. The Eye of Ra / 2. Starchild / 3. Set Your Controls
Tomislav95: 1. Set Your Controls / 2. The Eye of Ra / 3. Intergalactic Space Crusaders
Train of Naught: 1. Set Your Controls / 2. The Eye of Ra / 3. Perfect Survivor
twosuitsluke: 1. Set Your Controls / 2. Starchild / 3. The Eye of Ra

Evermind: 1. The Eye of Ra / 2. Starchild / 3. Intergalactic Space Crusaders
jingle.boy: 1. Master of Darkness / 2. Set Your Controls / 3. The Eye of Ra

The Scoreboard:

1. Scorpion - 42
2. 425 - 36
3. Kwyjibo - 30
4. Tomislav95 - 27
5. Train of Naught - 24
6. MirrorMask - 23
7. Parama - 21
8. Nick - 19
9. Elite - 17
10. home - 14
11. twosuitsluke - 12

Evermind - 38
jingle.boy - 20

This album was pretty much the opposite of Flight of the Migrator. Many people got some of the songs in the Top 3—Chad even got all of them—but when it came to the order of the songs, most of the participants seemed to be stumped. No one got all three songs in order, and only two participants—Nick and Scorpion—managed to predict the correct placement for two songs. Scorpion ended up getting the most points in this round, predicting both the winner and the third place song correctly, and he's currently in the lead with 42 points! 425 maintains his second places despite a poor performance this round, and Kwyjibo is still holding his third place due to a exact prediction of the winner for this Survivor.

Next we have two albums that are probably the most difficult to predict, The Human Equation and 01011001! That's going to be interesting.

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #93 on: April 30, 2017, 07:49:24 AM »
Cool, I'm hanging in there! I will savor this moment 'cause I royally messed up the Space Metal predictions  :lol
Hey MirrorMask, look, we both fucked it up :lol we're still pretty much tied
shut up train. go listen to your bad hypno5e albums
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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #94 on: April 30, 2017, 08:29:47 AM »
I had the top two in right order though, just in #2-3 instead of #1-2 :(
Hey dude slow the fuck down so we can finish together at the same time.  :biggrin:
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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #95 on: May 30, 2017, 02:29:40 PM »
When are you gonna start taking predictions for the source?  :corn

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #96 on: May 31, 2017, 09:40:00 AM »
You can start sending them, if you want to. I thought to announce it the week or two before The Source Survivor, but if you're confident now, go ahead and do it.

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #97 on: June 26, 2017, 11:44:33 AM »
Here we go with The Human Equation Survivor:

The Human Equation Survivor Top 3:

1. Day Twelve: Trauma
2. Day Three: Pain
3. Day Two: Isolation

The Human Equation Predictions:

(Limegreen means the prediction was fully correct and scores respectively 5, 3 and 2 points for 1st, 2nd and 3rd place. Orange means the song is in the Top 3, but the prediction was wrong about the song's exact placement, it always scores 1 point. Red means the song was eliminated before the Top 3, obviously it scores 0 points.)

425: 1. Trauma / 2. Isolation / 3. Confrontation
Elite: 1. Pain / 2. Trauma / 3. Confrontation
home: 1. Loser / 2. Pain / 3. Love
Kwyjibo: 1. Isolation / 2. Trauma / 3. Pain
MirrorMask: 1. Confrontation / 2. Trauma / 3. Isolation
Nick: 1. Isolation / 2. Confrontation / 3. Love
Parama: 1. Isolation / 2. Confrontation / 3. Trauma
Scorpion: 1. Pain / 2. Loser / 3. Isolation
Tomislav95: 1. Isolation / 2. Love / 3. Loser
Train of Naught: 1. Isolation / 2. Loser / 3. Confrontation
twosuitsluke: 1. Trauma / 2. Isolation / 3. Pain

Evermind: 1. Isolation / 2. Loser / 3. Trauma
jingle.boy: 1. Trauma / 2. Isolation / 3. Voices

The Scoreboard:

1. Scorpion - 45
2. 425 - 42
3. Kwyjibo - 33
4. Tomislav95 - 28
5. MirrorMask - 26
6. Train of Naught - 25
7. Parama - 23
8. Nick - 20
9. Elite - 19
9. twosuitsluke - 19
11. home - 17

Evermind - 40
jingle.boy - 26

Interesting results this time around! Not a lot of points distributed, and also not a lot of changes in the Scoreboard—Scorp, 425 and Kwyjibo retain their Top 3 places—but there are some changes indeed. MirrorMask gains one position, moving to the fifth place instead of Train, and Luke has quite a successful round, brabbing seven points and finally escaping from the very bottom of the board.

The results for 01011001 are coming up either today tomorrow, and we're starting Guilt Machine in a few minutes.

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #98 on: June 26, 2017, 11:46:49 AM »
I feel sad that despite getting the top 2 right, but not in the right order, there's 5 people who got more points than me.
Hey dude slow the fuck down so we can finish together at the same time.  :biggrin:
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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #99 on: June 26, 2017, 11:49:46 AM »
You have Trauma as red on Kwy's predictions btw

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #100 on: June 26, 2017, 11:50:53 AM »
I feel sad that despite getting the top 2 right, but not in the right order, there's 5 people who got more points than me.

Yeah, well, I sort of addressed it in the Final Round thread. I admit the system might be flawed.

I will give everyone who feels the system is unfair a consolation gift at our Ayreon Universe meeting in Tilburg, if that helps. :)

You have Trauma as red on Kwy's predictions btw

Fixed. The points are correct though.

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #101 on: June 26, 2017, 12:01:13 PM »
Yay, bottom half for me! I hope to remain there and maybe aim for fourth, that'll probably the best I'll do... unless I start winning the predictions for albums I didn't listen, that would be glorious  :lol
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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #102 on: June 26, 2017, 12:11:16 PM »
And here's the 01011001 Survivor:

01011001 Survivor Top 3:

1. Age of Shadows
2. Beneath the Waves
3. The Sixth Extinction

01011001 Predictions:

(Limegreen means the prediction was fully correct and scores respectively 5, 3 and 2 points for 1st, 2nd and 3rd place. Orange means the song is in the Top 3, but the prediction was wrong about the song's exact placement, it always scores 1 point. Red means the song was eliminated before the Top 3, obviously it scores 0 points.)

425: 1. Age of Shadows / 2. The Sixth Extinction / 3. Beneath the Waves
Elite: 1. The Sixth Extinction / 2. Age of Shadows / 3. The Fifth Extinction
home: 1. Age of Shadows / 2. River of Time / 3. Comatose
Kwyjibo: 1. Beneath the Waves / 2. Age of Shadows / 3. Comatose
MirrorMask: 1. The Sixth Extinction / 2. The Fifth Extinction / 3. Beneath the Waves
Nick: 1. The Fifth Extinction / 2. The Sixth Extinction / 3. Ride the Comet
Parama: 1. The Sixth Extinction / 2. Age of Shadows / 3. Beneath the Waves
Scorpion: 1. Age of Shadows / 2. Liquid Eternity / 3. Beneath the Waves
Tomislav95: 1. Age of Shadows / 2. The Sixth Extinction / 3. Comatose
Train of Naught: 1. Liquid Eternity / 2. Waking Dreams / 3. Age of Shadows
twosuitsluke: 1. Age of Shadows / 2. The Fifth Extinction / 3. River of Time

Evermind: 1. The Sixth Extinction / 2. Age of Shadows / 3. Beneath the Waves
jingle.boy: 1. The Fifth Extinction / 2. Age of Shadows / 3. Ride the Comet

The Scoreboard:

1. Scorpion - 51
2. 425 - 49
3. Kwyjibo - 35
4. Tomislav95 - 34
5. MirrorMask - 28
6. Parama - 26
6. Train of Naught - 26
8. twosuitsluke - 24
9. home - 22
10. Elite - 21
10. Nick - 21

Evermind - 43
jingle.boy - 27

Not a lot of green this time. The Top 3 stays unchanged, even though 425 gets closer and closer to Scorpion, and Tomislav creeps up to Kwyjibo—it's only one point difference now! There are some changes in the bottom half of the board, though—both Luke and home jump from the very bottom upwards, leaving Elite and Nick behind.

Guilt Machine Survivor is coming up, and then we'll have Victims of the Modern Age Survivor running parallel to it.

Offline Parama

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #103 on: June 26, 2017, 12:15:33 PM »
Overrated Shadows  :corn

Offline Scorpion

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #104 on: June 26, 2017, 05:11:27 PM »
God dammit, I was so sure that I had actually guessed Age of Shadows - Beneath the Waves - Liquid Eternity. Just checked my PMs though, and no dice. Dammit. :(
scorpion is my favorite deathcore lobster
Hey, the length is fine :azn: Thanks!