Author Topic: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest  (Read 4082 times)

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Offline Evermind

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #140 on: October 23, 2017, 11:50:01 AM »
Alright, so Consolations begin tomorrow. If anyone else wants to change their predictions (looking at you, Elite and Tomislav), you've got about a day to do so.

Offline Evermind

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #141 on: November 07, 2017, 10:13:48 AM »
And here's what we have for Ayreon Survivor Consolations songs:

The Charm of the Seer
Beyond the Last Horizon
The Garden of Emotions
And the Druids Turn to Stone
Chaos
Day Twenty: Confrontation
Day Eleven: Love
Liquid Eternity
Phase III: Entanglement
Run! Apocalypse! Run!

Three of these will advance to the Finals.



As in Arjen Survivor Consolations, if you decide to leave your prediction for this Survivor unchanged, you get 10 points for each song you rightly predicted to go to the Finals (maximum 30 points). If you change your prediction in any way (swapping one song for another, or changing both songs entirely) you will only get 3 points for each song (maximum 9 points).

Since this competition is mostly for fun, I'm going to reveal all of your initial predictions for this round—you also won't need to go look for your own predictions.

425: Day Three: Pain / The Fifth Extinction / The Garden of Emotions (1/3)
Elite: Day Fourteen: Pride / Day Sixteen: Loser / Phase II: Symmetry (0/3)
home: Phase I: Singularity / The Garden of Emotions / Day Eleven: Love (2/3)
Kwyjibo: The Fifth Extinction / Day Sixteen: Loser / Phase II: Symmetry (0/3)
MirrorMask: Day Three: Pain / Newborn Race / The New Migrator (0/3)
Nick: Across the Rainbow Bridge / One Small Step / To the Quasar (0/3)
Parama: Amazing Flight / Day Eighteen: Realization / The Fifth Extinction (0/3)
Scorpion: One Small Step / The Sixth Extinction / Chaos (1/3)
Tomislav: Day Three: Pain / The First Man on Earth / Chaos (1/3)
Train of Naught: Day Three: Pain / Phase IV: Unification / Age of Shadows (0/3)
twosuitsluke: The Garden of Emotions / The Fifth Extinction / Into the Black Hole (1/3)

Evermind: Day Three: Pain / Waking Dreams / Phase III: Entanglement (1/3)
jingle.boy: Day Three: Pain / Amazing Flight / To the Quasar (0/3)

People with 0/3, you guys should probably change your predictions however you see fit. Your maximum possible result for this is 9 points.
People with 1/3 and home with 2/3 (wow), you probably should evaluate the risks and decide for yourself if you want to change anything or not.

I would like to get your updated predictions this week to start the Consolations on Monday. I'll do a round of PMs tomorrow to remind the still active folks (basically everyone who was active during the previous prediction changes).

Offline Parama

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #142 on: November 07, 2017, 10:54:34 AM »
Yeah who could've predicted the best song of ItEC would only make consolations  :corn

Offline home

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #143 on: November 07, 2017, 11:10:28 AM »
Yeah I'll take my chances with my current prediction
Break the mold, let's shake the ground, wreak havoc!

Offline Evermind

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #144 on: November 08, 2017, 10:35:18 AM »
Right, four of you guys are set, four people are inactive, and I need four more responses. Sending a round of PMs now.

I'm also changing my predictions from my 1/3 to the following, since I don't really think Entanglement will go through, not with this great set of songs:

The Garden of Emotions
Day Twenty: Confrontation
Liquid Eternity

Offline Parama

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #145 on: November 08, 2017, 11:37:50 AM »
Everyone who's changing their picks should be changing to those three tbh, nothing else stands a chance

Online Kwyjibo

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #146 on: November 09, 2017, 12:00:45 AM »
I've changed my predictions but I chose the ones I like more and not the ones you will probably vote  :o

Offline Evermind

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #147 on: November 11, 2017, 09:52:09 AM »
Now that Arjen Lucassen Consolations Survivor is finished, let's distribute some points here!

The songs that advanced to the Finals

Twisted Coil
Digital Rain

Arjen Lucassen Consolations Predictions:

(Limegreen means the prediction was placed in the very beginning of competition and is correct. It scores 10 points. Orange means the prediction was changed before this Survivor started, but it's a correct one. It scores 3 points. Red means the song you picked didn't make the Finals, regardless of the time the prediction was made. It scores 0 points.)

425: High Moon / Digital Rain
Elite: Twisted Coil / Digital Rain
home: Shores of India / Twisted Coil
Kwyjibo: Digital Rain / Twisted Coil
MirrorMask: Twisted Coil / Set Your Controls
Nick: Perfect Survivor / Earth That Was
Parama: Twisted Coil / Victim of the Modern Age
Scorpion: It All Ends Here / Set Your Controls
Tomislav95: Set Your Controls / Shores of India
Train of Naught: Twisted Coil / Digital Rain
twosuitsluke: Starchild / Perfection?

Evermind: Twisted Coil / Digital Rain
jingle.boy: Twisted Coil / Set Your Controls

The Scoreboard:

1. 425 - 79 (inactive)
2. Scorpion - 74 (inactive)
3. Parama - 59
4. Train of Naught - 54
5. MirrorMask - 53
6. Kwyjibo - 49
7. Elite - 48
8. twosuitsluke - 43 (inactive)
9. Tomislav95 - 42
10. home - 40
11. Nick - 34 (inactive)

Evermind - 73
jingle.boy - 46

And here's the point of the competition where the gaps between places begin to appear. 425 and Scorpion are still ahead, but as they're inactive—and they're not changing their predictions, and they also haven't provided me their predictions for The Source—the rest of the participants are gaining on them, and I think it's only a matter of a few rounds for someone to get the leading spot!

Parama gets the lead among the active participants with well-played prediction of Twisted Coil that gave him 10 points; Train also climbs up to the fourth place, pushing MirrorMask down. Kwyjibo manages to still stay ahead of Elite, both of them changed their predictions and got both songs right, earning six points. Tomislav and home are still behind the main group, but the difference isn't that huge!

All in all, I don't know if everyone realises it, but the competition is way closer that it perhaps appears to be. With 425 and Scorp out of the picture, a lot can change in the upcoming days!

Officially inactive people are now: 425, Scorpion, twosuitsluke, Nick.

Meanwhile, The Source Survivor is almost done. We now have our songs for Ayreon Consolations (starting tomorrow now that we have all the predictions) and for Arjen Lucassen Finals. I will post the rules shortly and I would like to have your changed predictions come Wednesday. The changes for Finals work differently, so probably everyone would like to change stuff.

Offline MirrorMask

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #148 on: November 11, 2017, 10:13:42 AM »
Damn, for a while I was in the unofficial lead but this round screwed me up, and The Source won't do me any favors either  :biggrin: but the race is on!  :metal
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Offline Evermind

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #149 on: November 11, 2017, 10:39:59 AM »
Okay, these are the songs for Arjen Lucassen Finals:

The Eye of Ra
Master of Darkness
Perfection?
Season of Denial
24 Hours
Human See, Human Do
Lost in the New Real
The New Real
Endless Sea
Cape of Storms
Twisted Coil
Digital Rain

For the purposes of the predictions, the only thing that matters is the Top 3.



Before I begin explaining this one, three big things:

1. The order of your predictions matters here.
2. You can change your predictions without losing points, as long as you don't change the songs that you think you've got right from the beginning.
3. If you predicted that the song will get to Top 3, but guessed the wrong spot for it, sorry, you're out of luck, no points for that here.


For the songs you decide not to tamper with (as in, not change either their placement or replace them entirely), if you predicted them correctly, you get 12/8/4 (correct prediction for the 1st/2nd/3rd place). For the songs you tampered with in any way (swapped their places in your prediction, for example), you get half the points—6/4/2. However, it should be noted, that this doesn't affect your whole prediction (unlike in Consolations)—if you change one song and leave the other intact, you can still get full points for the ones you didn't change. So it's possible to receive, say, 12/4/4 or 6/8/2.

Since this competition is mostly for fun, I'm going to reveal all of your initial predictions for this round—you also won't need to go look for your own predictions.

The songs that aren't in the competition are colored gray.

425: 1. Intergalactic Space Crusaders / 2. It All Ends Here / 3. New Horizons
Elite: 1. Starchild / 2. Lost in the New Real / 3. The Storm
home: 1. Heart of Amsterdam / 2. Earth That Was / 3. The Storm
Kwyjibo: 1. Green and Cream / 2. It All Ends Here / 3. The Eye of Ra
MirrorMask: 1. Starchild / 2. Shores of India / 3. It All Ends Here
Nick: 1. Human See, Human Do / 2. Sandrider / 3. Shores of India
Parama: 1. Perfection? / 2. It All Ends Here / 3. Season of Denial
Scorpion: 1. Human See, Human Do / 2. The Eye of Ra / 3. Perfection?
Tomislav: 1. Heart of Amsterdam / 2. Earth That Was / 3. Set Your Controls
Train of Naught: 1. Shores of India / 2. Leland Street / 3. 24 Hours
twosuitsluke: 1. Set Your Controls / 2. Season of Denial / 3. 24 Hours

Evermind: 1. The Eye of Ra / 2. Twisted Coil / 3. 24 Hours
jingle.boy: 1. The Storm / 2. Digital Rain / 3. Twisted Coil

Now is when the real fun begins! This is what I've been calling in my head the tactical part of this competition. It's absolutely up to you what you want to change and in what way. Do you want to move your song that still remains in the competition from #3, to, say, #2, losing some points but still getting a few of them, or do you want to risk it and leave it where you had it before? Now that you have the list of songs in the competition, you know what your songs are up against. And with how tight the competition is, each decision matters.

I would like to get your updated predictions this week to start the Finals on Wednesday. I'll do a round of PMs tomorrow to remind the still active folks (basically everyone who was active during the previous prediction changes).

If there are any questions you've got, fire them away.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2017, 10:45:30 AM by Evermind »

Offline MirrorMask

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #150 on: November 11, 2017, 11:53:20 AM »
Well, no questions for me - I screwed up three out of three predictions so I can only change them all  :biggrin:
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Offline Evermind

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #151 on: November 11, 2017, 12:02:36 PM »
Well, yeah, there's that. :lol

Offline Parama

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #152 on: November 11, 2017, 06:17:02 PM »
I would expect 2 of my top 3 to be in the top 3 and despite my meh feelings human see is a likely top 3 candidate as well but I am super biased towards guilt machine and tempted to put all 3 of the songs on that album as my top 3, lol

I doubt it though looking at the other predictions here

Offline Evermind

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #153 on: November 13, 2017, 10:24:45 AM »
And here's our last Album Survivor:

The Source Survivor Top 3:

1. The Day That the World Breaks Down
2. Star of Sirrah
3. Everybody Dies

The Source Predictions:

(Limegreen means the prediction was fully correct and scores respectively 5, 3 and 2 points for 1st, 2nd and 3rd place. Orange means the song is in the Top 3, but the prediction was wrong about the song's exact placement, it always scores 1 point. Red means the song was eliminated before the Top 3, obviously it scores 0 points.)

425: none
Elite: 1. The Day That the World Breaks Down / 2. The Dream Dissolves / 3. Star of Sirrah
home: 1. Everybody Dies / 2. The Day That the World Breaks Down / 3. The Dream Dissolves
Kwyjibo: 1. The Day That the World Breaks Down / 2. Deathcry of a Race / 3. Star of Sirrah
MirrorMask: 1. The Day That the World Breaks Down / 2. Deathcry of a Race / 3. Sea of Machines
Nick: none
Parama: 1. The Day That the World Breaks Down / 2. Everybody Dies / 3. Condemned to Live
Scorpion: none
Tomislav95: 1. Everybody Dies / 2. The Dream Dissolves / 3. The Day That the World Breaks Down
Train of Naught: 1. The Day That the World Breaks Down / 2. Deathcry of a Race / 3. The Dream Dissolves
twosuitsluke: none

Evermind: 1. The Day That the World Breaks Down / 2. Everybody Dies / 3. Star of Sirrah
jingle.boy: 1. The Day That the World Breaks Down / 2. Star of Sirrah / 3. Deathcry of a Race

The Scoreboard:

1. 425 - 79 (inactive)
2. Scorpion - 74 (inactive)
3. Parama - 65
4. Train of Naught - 59
5. MirrorMask - 58
6. Kwyjibo - 55
7. Elite - 54
8. Tomislav95 - 44
9. twosuitsluke - 43 (inactive)
10. home - 42
11. Nick - 34 (inactive)

Evermind - 80
jingle.boy - 52

This was one of those rounds where you're basically screwed if you didn't pick the winner right, and therefore Tomislav and home are left behind in the race for now, getting only two points each. Four inactive people didn't submit their predictions for this one, but 425 and Scorpion both had such a lead that everyone else is yet to dethrone them. Parama is getting fairly close, though, with the impressive 65 points! Train, MirrorMask, Kwyjibo and Elite are still in the pursuit distance and one well-timed and well-thought out prediction from the beginning can turn tides quite unexpectedly now. We're entering the final phase of the competition, and now it's about to become fierce and unforgiving as ever.

Ayreon Consolations are underway, and Arjen Finals are scheduled to begin on Wednesday or Thursday. Then we'll only have Ayreon Finals and the Grand Finals, which means four more opportunities to get ahead of your opponents. All of these Survivors will allow you to change your predictions, however, doing so will cost you some potential points, so you'll have to choose wisely. I'm honestly so excited for this. :biggrin:
« Last Edit: November 13, 2017, 11:27:48 AM by Evermind »

Offline Parama

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #154 on: November 13, 2017, 10:57:24 AM »
You added my points correctly but condemned to live shouldn't be orange

Offline Evermind

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #155 on: November 13, 2017, 11:28:09 AM »
Yeah, fuck-ups happen. Fixed.

Offline Evermind

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #156 on: November 15, 2017, 10:07:46 AM »
Okay, got everyone's changed predictions for Arjen Finals! For my own, I'll leave my first and third place intact, and swap Twisted Coil for Perfection.

My predictions now are: 1. The Eye of Ra (unchanged) / 2. Perfection? (changed) / 3. 24 Hours (unchanged). Watch me fail this one miserably. :lol

First round coming your way in a few minutes!

Offline Evermind

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #157 on: December 17, 2017, 08:49:55 AM »
And here's the points distribution for Ayreon Consolations!

The songs that advanced to the Finals

Day Twenty: Confrontation
Liquid Eternity
Day Eleven: Love

Ayreon Consolations Predictions:

(Limegreen means the prediction was placed in the very beginning of competition and is correct. It scores 10 points. Orange means the prediction was changed before this Survivor started, but it's a correct one. It scores 3 points. Red means the song you picked didn't make the Finals, regardless of the time the prediction was made. It scores 0 points.)

425: Day Three: Pain / The Fifth Extinction / The Garden of Emotions
Elite: The Garden of Emotions / And the Druids Turn to Stone / Liquid Eternity
home: Phase I: Singularity / Day Eleven: Love / The Garden of Emotions
Kwyjibo: The Garden of Emotions / Day Eleven: Love / Phase III: Entanglement
MirrorMask: Day Eleven: Love / The Garden of Emotions / Liquid Eternity
Nick: Across the Rainbow Bridge / To the Quasar / One Small Step
Parama: Day Twenty: Confrontation / The Garden of Emotions / Liquid Eternity
Scorpion: One Small Step / The Sixth Extinction / Chaos
Tomislav95: Day Twenty: Confrontation / The Garden of Emotions / Chaos
Train of Naught: Day Twenty: Confrontation / And the Druids Turn to Stone / Liquid Eternity
twosuitsluke: The Garden of Emotions / The Fifth Extinction / Into the Black Hole

Evermind: The Garden of Emotions / Day Twenty: Confrontation / Liquid Eternity
jingle.boy: Day Twenty: Confrontation / Chaos / The Garden of Emotions

The Scoreboard:

1. 425 - 79 (inactive)
2. Scorpion - 74 (inactive)
3. Parama - 71
4. Train of Naught - 65
5. MirrorMask - 64
6. Kwyjibo - 58
7. Elite - 57
8. home - 52
9. Tomislav95 - 47
10. twosuitsluke - 43 (inactive)
11. Nick - 34 (inactive)

Evermind - 86
jingle.boy - 57

Parama is close to dethrone our inactive participants, but both Train of Naught and MirrorMask are holding on and keep the pursuit! Not a lot changed in this round, except home was the only one to correctly guess a song from very beginning so he leaps over Tomislav and Luke, and it actually somewhat back in the race again!

We've got three checkpoints left where you can get your points, basically it's Ayreon and Arjen Finals and then it's the Grand Finals. Currently, it seems likely that Parama will win this, but we shall see, still a lot can change during the Finals / Grand Finals.

Officially inactive people are now: 425, Scorpion, twosuitsluke, Nick.

Ayreon Finals will begin either tomorrow or Tuesday!

Offline Parama

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #158 on: December 17, 2017, 10:44:31 AM »
i'm gonna get owned in the finals rounds actually

Offline MirrorMask

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #159 on: December 17, 2017, 02:36:20 PM »
Still holding there wohooo!! but I'm starting to think it's gonna end bad for me  :D
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Offline home

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #160 on: December 17, 2017, 03:01:22 PM »
Whooo not last or second to last anymore   :P
Break the mold, let's shake the ground, wreak havoc!

Offline Evermind

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #161 on: December 19, 2017, 10:26:07 AM »
Remember when I said about Ayreon Finals beginning today? I forgot about changing your predictions, guys. :facepalm:

So here are the songs we've got for Ayreon Finals!

Sail Away to Avalon
The Awareness
Merlin's Will
Abbey of Synn
Computer Eyes
Isis and Osiris
Across the Rainbow Bridge
Amazing Flight
My House on Mars
2084
Into the Black Hole
Dawn of a Million Souls
Day Twelve: Trauma
Day Three: Pain
Day Two: Isolation
Age of Shadows
Beneath the Waves
The Sixth Extinction
Phase II: Symmetry
The Day That the World Breaks Down
Star of Sirrah
Everybody Dies
Day Twenty: Confrontation
Liquid Eternity
Day Eleven: Love

For the purposes of the predictions, Top 5 is what matters here.



Before I begin explaining this one, three big things:

1. The order of your predictions matters here.
2. You can change your predictions without losing points, as long as you don't change the songs that you think you've got right from the beginning.
3. If you predicted that the song will get to Top 5, but guessed the wrong spot for it, you still get 1 point.


For the songs you decide not to tamper with (as in, not change either their placement or replace them entirely), if you predicted them correctly, you get 15/12/9/6/3 (correct prediction for the 1st/2nd/3rd/4th/5th place). For the songs you tampered with in any way (swapped their places in your prediction, for example), you get two thirds of the points—10/8/6/4/2. However, it should be noted, that this doesn't affect your whole prediction (unlike in Consolations)—if you change one song and leave the other intact, you can still get full points for the ones you didn't change. So it's possible to receive, say, 15/8/9/4/3 or 10/12/6/6/2.

Since this competition is mostly for fun, I'm going to reveal all of your initial predictions for this round—you also won't need to go look for your own predictions.

The songs that aren't in the competition are colored gray.

425:

1. Day Twelve: Trauma
2. Into the Black Hole
3. Age of Shadows
4. Day Two: Isolation
5. Isis and Osiris

Elite:

1. Amazing Flight
2. And the Druids Turn to Stone
3. The Sixth Extinction
4. Phase III: Entanglement
5. Isis and Osiris

home:

1. Age of Shadows
2. Day Sixteen: Loser
3. Computer Eyes
4. Day Three: Pain
5. Into the Black Hole

Kwyjibo:

1. Day Two: Isolation
2. Isis and Osiris
3. Dawn of a Million Souls
4. Day Twelve: Trauma
5. Phase I: Singularity

MirrorMask:

1. Into the Black Hole
2. The Sixth Extinction
3. Amazing Flight
4. The Fifth Extinction
5. Day Twenty: Confrontation

Nick:

1. Into the Black Hole
2. And the Druids Turn to Stone
3. Day Two: Isolation
4. Day Twenty: Confrontation
5. The Two Gates

Parama:

1. Day Two: Isolation
2. The Sixth Extinction
3. Day Twenty: Confrontation
4. Age of Shadows
5. The Garden of Emotions

Scorpion:

1. Into the Black Hole
2. Age of Shadows
3. Isis and Osiris
4. My House on Mars
5. Across the Rainbow Bridge

Tomislav:

1. Day Two: Isolation
2. And the Druids Turn to Stone
3. Into the Black Hole
4. Isis and Osiris
5. Phase IV: Unification

Train of Naught:

1. Phase I: Singularity
2. Into the Black Hole
3. Day Two: Isolation
4. Computer Eyes
5. Day Sixteen: Loser

twosuitsluke:

1. Day Twelve: Trauma
2. Day Two: Isolation
3. Day Three: Pain
4. Age of Shadows
5. Chaos


Evermind:

1. Isis and Osiris
2. Into the Black Hole
3. The Sixth Extinction
4. Day Two: Isolation
5. Phase I: Singularity

jingle.boy:

1. Day Two: Isolation
2. Isis and Osiris
3. Day Twelve: Trauma
4. Dawn of a Million Souls
5. Eyes of Time

And here's second biggest competition of the entire run—Ayreon Survivor Finals! We only have one step ahead of us after that, the Grand Finals League; but this is probably the most important one prediction-wise. Everyone got some songs that are in competition, and some songs are already out now, so it's time to decide which songs to put instead of the ones in gray, and think about switching some songs for others or perhaps rearrange the order at the expense of the points you can get. The rules are basically the same, except the amount of points you gain for the songs you tampered or not tampered with.

I know it's nearing holidays and I won't be posting any Survivor threads during December 24th—January 2nd, so you basically have until January 2nd to update your predictions! Perhaps you should do it sooner than later though, just so you won't forget to do it. :biggrin:

If there are any questions you've got, fire them away.

Offline Elite

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #162 on: December 19, 2017, 10:51:16 AM »
Wow, my top five is shitty indeed
Hey dude slow the fuck down so we can finish together at the same time.  :biggrin:
Squ
scRa are the resultaten of sound nog bring propey

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #163 on: December 19, 2017, 10:57:55 AM »
Ok... since we're doing it just for fun, and I'm not really in the competition for the prizes - only pride - I'll swap Eyes of Time for Into the Black Hole, and leave the other 4 the same.
Can you imagine some alien race comes to a large nebula they've never seen before, and it just turns out it's the Federation's dumping ground for space-smile?
And TAC can suck it  :biggrin:, this is heavy in all the right places.  :tup

Offline Parama

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #164 on: December 19, 2017, 11:37:24 AM »
yeah if i do actually end up winning somehow i'm gonna ask ev to send the prizes to the next person down, i don't really want them tbh :lol
i can't even play the vinyl

Offline MirrorMask

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #165 on: December 19, 2017, 11:46:28 AM »
Sorry, dumb it down for me:

"2. You can change your predictions without losing points, as long as you don't change the songs that you think you've got right from the beginning."

So far my predictions are:

1. Into the Black Hole
2. The Sixth Extinction
3. Amazing Flight
4. ***The Fifth Extinction*** WHICH IS OUT
5. Day Twenty: Confrontation

So does the above rule means that I don't lose any points if I just replace The Fifth Extinction, which is no longer running, but I would lose if I'd swap places for the other 4 songs which are all in the finals?
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Offline Evermind

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #166 on: December 19, 2017, 11:58:47 AM »
Sorry, dumb it down for me:

"2. You can change your predictions without losing points, as long as you don't change the songs that you think you've got right from the beginning."

So far my predictions are:

1. Into the Black Hole
2. The Sixth Extinction
3. Amazing Flight
4. ***The Fifth Extinction*** WHICH IS OUT
5. Day Twenty: Confrontation

So does the above rule means that I don't lose any points if I just replace The Fifth Extinction, which is no longer running, but I would lose if I'd swap places for the other 4 songs which are all in the finals?

Yes, you've got it right. I might've worded it somewhat unclear.

But if, say, you replace both Fifth Extinction and Confrontation with something else, you would still get full points for the first three songs.

Offline MirrorMask

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #167 on: December 19, 2017, 12:23:34 PM »
Ok, thanks!

Gotta think about this... I guess the best course of action should be to stick with the predictions (since at least even with the wrong order I still get one point) and then just replace the missing song
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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #168 on: December 20, 2017, 12:30:52 PM »
Okay, won't change much but replace Phase I: Singularity which is already out with Into The Black Hole for 5th place.

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #169 on: December 21, 2017, 01:46:04 AM »
As for me, I leave everything as it is (I figure it's still some points secured even if I get the order wrong) and bring in as 4th song Isis and Osiris.
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Offline Evermind

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #170 on: January 02, 2018, 05:02:16 AM »
As far as I can see (I could be missing something though), I still need Elite, home and Tomislav to change their predictions, gonna message you guys on FB.

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #171 on: January 04, 2018, 05:57:11 AM »
I've got everyone except Elite, so we're starting this tomorrow.

I'm changing my #5 to Age of Shadows.

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #172 on: January 04, 2018, 06:52:07 AM »
Yeah, but my prediction suck arse. I might as well change everything :lol
Hey dude slow the fuck down so we can finish together at the same time.  :biggrin:
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scRa are the resultaten of sound nog bring propey

Offline Evermind

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #173 on: January 06, 2018, 04:38:01 AM »
Points and results for Arjen Lucassen Finals:

Arjen Lucassen Finals Top 3

1. The Eye of Ra
2. Season of Denial
3. 24 Hours

Arjen Lucassen Finals Predictions:

(Limegreen means the prediction was placed in the very beginning of competition and is correct. It scores 12 / 8 / 4 points for the 1st / 2nd / 3rd place. Orange means the prediction was changed before this Survivor started, but it's a correct one. It scores 6 / 4 / 2 points. Red means the song you picked either didn't make the Top 3, or was predicted to finish at the wrong place. It scores 0 points.)

425: 1. Intergalactic Space Crusaders / 2. It All Ends Here / 3. New Horizons
Elite: 1. Perfection? / 2. Lost in the New Real / 3. The Eye of Ra
home: 1. Perfection? / 2. 24 Hours / 3. Season of Denial
Kwyjibo: 1. The Eye of Ra / 2. Perfection? / 3. 24 Hours
MirrorMask: 1. The Eye of Ra / 2. Twisted Coil / 3. Human See, Human Do
Nick: 1. Human See, Human Do / 2. Sandrider / 3. Shores of India
Parama: 1. Perfection? / 2. 24 Hours / 3. Season of Denial
Scorpion: 1. Human See, Human Do / 2. The Eye of Ra / 3. Perfection?
Tomislav95: 1. 24 Hours / 2. Perfection? / 3. Endless Sea
Train of Naught: 1. Perfection / 2. Twisted Coil / 3. 24 Hours
twosuitsluke: 1. Set Your Controls / 2. Season of Denial / 3. 24 Hours

Evermind: 1. The Eye of Ra / 2. Perfection? / 3. 24 Hours
jingle.boy: 1. Perfection? / 2. The Eye of Ra / 3. Cape of Storms

The Scoreboard:

1. 425 - 79 (inactive)
2. Scorpion - 74 (inactive)
3. Parama - 71
4. MirrorMask - 70
5. Train of Naught - 69
6. Kwyjibo - 66
7. Elite - 57
8. twosuitsluke - 55 (inactive)
9. home - 52
10. Tomislav95 - 47
11. Nick - 34 (inactive)

Evermind - 102
jingle.boy - 57

Parama didn't get any points in this round, but still in the lead among the active participants. However, everyone who scored points in this round—namely Train, MirrorMask and Kwyjibo—are getting really close to him, and with only two Survivors left to collect the points in, this could be anyone's game. Luke, while being inactive, actually jumps a few places up on the scoreboard due to well-placed predictions back in the beginning of 2017!

I'm not sure if this particular system worked really well, seeing how many people didn't guess the order right. :lol I decided not to give points for the wrong order to encourage people changing their predictions before the Finals kicked in, but with the points difference and unpredictability of DTF (I didn't expect Perfection? kicked out before Top 3, surely), I guess that didn't work. Oh well.

Officially inactive people are now: 425, Scorpion, twosuitsluke, Nick.

I'll start the first thread for Ayreon Finals later today.

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #174 on: January 06, 2018, 05:16:33 AM »
A lot of red in the predictions and not many points for most.