Author Topic: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest  (Read 110 times)

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Offline Evermind

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Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« on: January 11, 2017, 12:01:37 PM »
Welcome to the Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor Prediction Contest, everyone! Before you (maybe) go ahead and read this lengthy wall of text, please take a few seconds to read a note from me as the contest host. The note is posted right in the next paragraph.

Note from the organizer (me): before I begin with all the contest rules, eligibility rules, prizes and other sections, let me just address one thing. As an organizer, Iíd like to encourage everyone to vote in all the polls to come as if this Contest doesnít exist. Since this Contest offers real prizes to the winner, I guess some of you guys may consider the idea of the voting beneficial to your predictions. I have no means to prevent that, as it is your own vote and youíre free to do with it as you please, but if youíd like to play it fair, just make your votes based on your usual Survivors strategy, without taking anyoneís predictions into consideration. I donít want this Survivor to be built around this Contest; but Iíd like to have something different and exciting running along the Survivor, which would encourage more people to participate, have fun, and maybe discover more Arjen-related albums.

To learn what this whole thread is about, just keep reading section by section.

Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor ó Prediction Contest

General Rules


  • This Contest was discussed with and approved by Nick, the biggest Arjen fan on DTF, and also an established member of mod-team.
  • The main goal of this Contest is to draw more attention to this Survivor and to Arjenís music, make the active participation in it more meaningful, and add the additional layer of fun and friendly competition between the participants.
  • As an organizer, I do not seek any profit from this. Well, just in case that wasnít clear.
  • The goal of the participants is to score points by making right predictions for every Album Survivor, Consolations, Finals and Grand Finals. The predictions and the scoring system both have their own sections below in this thread.
  • The participant eligible for the main prize with most points in the end of the competition wins the main prize. The main prize has its own section below in this thread.
  • While youíre free you use your vote as you wish (remember the note in the beginning?), Iíd like to stress that rigging the polls is prohibitedóand Iíd also like to mention that I hope it wonít come to that. Everyone is encouraged to post their votes in the actual thread; if there will be a strong suspicion from the participants that the polls are being rigged (like, the fan-favourite songs on the album going out first in a spectacular one-sided way, or something else), the poll will be restarted and the votes will be counted manually through the posts in the thread.
  • This contest will start only if we have five eligible participants or more.


Eligibility

  • To participate in the Contest, you have to fit all the eligibility criteria in the following list:
    - Only the players whose post-count is 500 or higher are allowed to compete for the main prize.
    - Only the players whose accounts are at least 6 months old are allowed to compete for the main prize.
    - You have to actively participate in at least three Album Survivor threads to be eligible to compete for the main prize. In this case, active participation means posting at least in more than 50% of the related Survivor threads.
  • Even if you arenít eligible to compete for the main prize, you can still send me your predictions. You will appear on the scoreboard, and you will be able to track how well youíre doing. In case the non-eligible person wins the Contest, the prize will go to the highest-scoring eligible person.
  • I donít mean to sound like a dick, but there are people on this board I donít want to have any deals with, so I reserve the right to decline any person to participate in the Contest without further explanation. I can invoke this right only before the first Album Survivor (The Final Experiment) begins.

Predictions

  • The participants will be asked to predict the following Survivor results:
    - For each album Survivor: you have to predict the Top 3 songs in order
    - For Consolations: you have to predict the songs that will make it out to the Finals in no particular order
    - For Finals: you have to predict Top 5 songs for Ayreon Survivor Finals and Top 3 songs for Arjen Lucassen Survivor Finals, all in order
    - For Grand Finals: you have to predict Top 5 songs in order
    For you convenience, there is a survey in the next post you can fill.
  • The participants should send their predictions in secret to the organizer (me) via PM on DTF, Facebook (if weíre friends there), Skype or e-mail.
  • The participants should send the predictions for all the Album Survivors, Consolations, Finals and Grand Finals except for the upcoming Ayreon album #9. If you donít make the prediction for any Album Survivor, Consolations, Finals or Grand Finals, youíre still eligible to win the main prize, but you (obviously) wonít get any points for the Survivor which you didnít predict.
  • The predictions for Consolations, Finals and Grand Finals can be changed right before the related Survivor begins; however, if you decide to change them, you will receive fewer points for each of your right predictions (more on that in Scoring Points section).
  • The predictions for Album Survivors usually canít be changed. However, you can change your predictions for one Album Survivor of your choice without any point loss. You can use this either to change your existing prediction, or to fill the blank prediction you sent me before. You have to do it before the related Album Survivor begins.
  • The predictions for Ayreon album #9 will be gathered before the beginning of its Survivor.
  • The predicted songs for each Survivor wonít be revealed until the Survivor finishes, partly to keep suspense, and partly to discourage the players to vote against someoneís predicted songs.
  • The deadline for sending the predictions is January 25th, 6 P.M. GMT.

Advice: donít leave any of the predictions blank. At least look at Wikipedia or the Results post and pick the tracks, even if you donít know them at all. First of all, itís fun! Second, even with this kind of blind-guessing, your prediction may end up being correct!

Scoring Points

  • Points are scored for every correct (or, in some cases, almost correct) prediction.
  • All Album Survivors yield points as follows:
    - 5 points for predicting the correct album winner (#1)
    - 3 points for predicting the correct album runner-up (#2)
    - 2 points for predicting the correct album third place song (#3)
    - 1 point for predicting the correct song in the Top 3, but in the wrong spot
    Example: my prediction for The Human Equation is: 1. Mystery / 2. Vigil / 3. Sign; and the result is 1. Mystery / 2. Sign / 3. Pride. I get 6 points total: 5 points for correct prediction for Mystery, and 1 point for predicting Sign in the Top 3, even though I didnít get its place quite right.
  • Ayreon and Arjen Lucassen Consolations yield points as follows:
    - 10 points for predicting each song promoted to Finals if your prediction is unchanged from the beginning of the Contest
    - 3 points for predicting each song promoted to Finals if your prediction was changed in any way
    Note: if you change your prediction in any way, even if you swap one song and leave the other two, you will get only 3 points for each of them.
  • Ayreon Finals yield points as follows:
    - 15 / 12 / 9 / 6 / 3 points for correctly predicting #1 / #2 / #3 / #4 / #5 songs respectively, in case your prediction is unchanged from the beginning of the Contest
    - 10 / 8 / 6 / 4 / 2 points for correctly predicting #1 / #2 / #3 / #4 / #5 songs respectively, in case your prediction for the particular songs was changed from the beginning of the Contest
    - 1 point for predicting the correct song in the Top 5, but in the wrong spot
    Example: Letís say I predicted 1. Connect the Dots / 2. Computer-Reign / 3. Vigil / 4. 2084 / 5. Chaos. When the Finals rolled in, I realized that Computer-Reign and Connect the Dots are both eliminated, so I changed my prediction to 1. Web of Lies / 2. Waracle / 3. Vigil / 4. 2084 / 5. Chaos. The actual result ended up to be 1. Web of Lies / 2. Magic Ride / 3. Waracle / 4. 2084 / 5. Chaos. That means I get 10 points for Web of Lies at #1 (changed prediction), 0 points for #2, 1 points for #3 (wrong spot), 6 points for #4 (unchanged prediction) and 3 points for #5 (unchanged prediction), making it 20 points total.
  • Arjen Lucassen Finals yield points as follows:
    - 12 / 8 / 4 points for correctly predicting #1 / #2 / #3 songs respectively, in case your prediction is unchanged from the beginning of the Contest
    - 6 / 4 / 2 songs respectively, in case your prediction for the particular songs was changed from the beginning of the Contest
    Example: see the one for Ayreon Finals.
  • Grand Finals League yields points the same way Ayreon Finals do.
  • If you get every single prediction correct, you will get 140 (Album Survivors) + 30 (Ayreon Consolations) + 20 (Arjen Consolations) + 45 (Ayreon Finals) + 24 (Arjen Finals) + 45 (Grand Finals League) = 322 points total.

The Prize

  • The winner (the eligible participant with most points scored) gets the full prize described in this section.
  • The winner can choose to pay the shipping costs himself or leave it to the organizer (me). Paying shipping costs is non-obligatory, but itíll help me to lower the cost of this whole contest. The prize will be shipped from Russia in maximum two months after the winner is determined, probably earlier.
  • The prize includes:
    - The Theater Equation Deluxe Edition Artbook (2CD, 2DVD, Blu-ray), unpacked from the plastic wrap but otherwise not used;



    - The Theater Equation Deluxe Show Program (was available only at the show and in the pre-order bundles before the show) with information about every performer and their roles in the show;



    - Avantasia A2 Ghostlights poster (folded, thatís how it was in the Deluxe Ghostlights boxset);



    - The bonus Avantasia 10Ē Vinyl (Side A: Mystery of a Blood Red Rose / Side B: Draconian Love);



    - The Russian-pressed CDs for the cost of ~$60 (the cost may change due to the future economical situation in Russia), winner chooses the CDs;
    - Whatever exclusive merchandise I will be able to grab at Ayreon Universe show in September in Tilburg, Netherlands;
    - Some surprise prizes from me (including some obligatory Russian souvenirs) I wonít mention here to keep the suspense;
    - More prizes will possibly join the list depending on the answers I get to a few messages I sent around;
    - Cat pillows arenít part of the prize.
  • In order for me to deliver the prize, the winner will have to send me his/her full shipping address.

I will sign you guys up (if anyone is even interested in that kind of thing) after you get your prediction to me. I will answer any questions you have either here in the thread, via PM, Facebook, Skype, E-mail or if you can catch me in that DTF plug-dj room (I'm there right now).

I know I probably left some points unclear or totally screwed up somewhere, so let's hear your feedback / questions / whatever.

Offline Evermind

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2017, 12:03:21 PM »
(in case you haven't read the previous post, if you want to participate and are eligible, fill out this survey and send it to me either via PM, Facebook, Skype or E-mail)

The Predictions Survey

1. Write down your predictions for The Final Experiment Top 3 in order (maximum 10 points):


2. Write down your predictions for Actual Fantasy Top 3 in order (maximum 10 points):


3. Write down your predictions for Into the Electric Castle Top 3 in order (maximum 10 points):


4. Write down your predictions for The Dream Sequencer Top 3 in order (maximum 10 points):


5. Write down your predictions for Flight of the Migrator Top 3 in order (maximum 10 points):


6. Write down your predictions for The Human Equation Top 3 in order (maximum 10 points):


7. Write down your predictions for 01011001 Top 3 in order (maximum 10 points):


8. Write down your predictions for The Theory of Everything Top 3 in order (maximum 10 points):


9. Write down your predictions for Star One - Space Metal Top 3 in order (maximum 10 points):


10. Write down your predictions for Guilt Machine - On this Perfect Day Top 3 in order (maximum 10 points):


11. Write down your predictions for Star One - Victims of the Modern Age Top 3 in order (maximum 10 points):


12. Write down your predictions for Arjen Lucassen - Lost in the New Real Top 3 in order (maximum 10 points):


13. Write down your predictions for The Gentle Storm - The Diary Top 3 in order (maximum 10 points):


14. Write down your predictions for Ayreon Survivor Consolations songs that will be promoted to Finals (no particular order) (maximum 30 points):


15. Write down your predictions for Arjen Lucassen Survivor Consolations songs that will be promoted to Finals (no particular order) (maximum 20 points):


16. Write down your predictions for Ayreon Survivor Finals Top 5 in order (maximum 45 points):


17. Write down your predictions for Arjen Lucassen Survivor Finals Top 3 in order (maximum 24 points):


18. Write down your predictions for Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen Grand Finals League Top 5 in order (maximum 45 points):



Offline Train of Naught

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2017, 12:22:07 PM »
    I will start thinking of my predictions and send it in next week, this'll be fun!

  • I donít mean to sound like a dick, but there are people on this board I donít want to have any deals with, so I reserve the right to decline any person to participate in the Contest without further explanation. I can invoke this right only before the first Album Survivor (The Final Experiment) begins.
Thank you for this :lol though they can still screw with the poll by voting, but I'm glad this rule exists all the same.
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Offline MirrorMask

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2017, 12:37:36 PM »
Sounds like fun, I will give it a try!

Offline Elite

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2017, 01:54:05 PM »
  • I donít mean to sound like a dick, but there are people on this board I donít want to have any deals with, so I reserve the right to decline any person to participate in the Contest without further explanation. I can invoke this right only before the first Album Survivor (The Final Experiment) begins.
Thank you for this :lol though they can still screw with the poll by voting, but I'm glad this rule exists all the same.

I kind of wonder which people he means by this :lol
(or is it me? : :sadpanda:)

I could probably enter, but I don't really know every album as well as some members and there's some albums I have never properly heard. I have never heard Guilt Machine and only heard Actual Fantasy and both Star One albums about once.
Hey dude slow the fuck down so we can finish together at the same time.  :biggrin:

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Offline Scorpion

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2017, 01:56:15 PM »
I'm going to participate, yay! I haven't yet heard everything from Arjen, but that which I have heard, I like a lot, and by the time we get to the later albums, I'll have heard them as well.
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Hey, the length is fine :azn: Thanks!

Offline twosuitsluke

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #7 on: January 11, 2017, 05:19:27 PM »
Ok, I'll give this a go. I know all but the first two Ayreon albums pretty well and also both the Star One albums.

The rest will be a bit of a stab in the dark but the prize is worth giving it a go. How long have I got to get my predictions in?

Offline Evermind

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2017, 08:52:08 AM »
Luke, the deadline for predictions is January 25th, 6 P.M. GMT, basically almost two weeks from the moment I aired the first post.

By the way, in case it wasn't clear in the first post (because I've reread it, and it really wasn't), you have to send me all the predictions (all 18 survey questions) before the deadline, not only the first two albums. You will be able to change Consolations, Finals and Grand Finals predictions later (with the risk of losing potential points), and you also will be able to change your prediction for one album without any point loss.

Other than that, all your predictions are locked in when the first Survivor begins.

I will be in DTF plug-dj room for the next three hours to answer any questions you guys have about this contest.

Offline twosuitsluke

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2017, 09:58:37 AM »
Ok, that's cool. That gives me plenty of time to at least try and give a listen to the albums I've not heard. I'll probably just wing it and not over think my predictions as I'm only a casual fan anyway.

I know, in general, that what I consider a bands best songs aren't usually the same as the majority. I should probably not predict based on my personal rankings. I'll try and get them to you within the next week.

Offline Evermind

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #10 on: January 12, 2017, 10:08:23 AM »
I imagine everyone will be way off with their predictions. I'm participating too (just for fun), and I'm pretty sure I'll end up being wrong with most of the albums. :lol

Of course, that's what makes this contest so fun.

Offline twosuitsluke

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #11 on: January 12, 2017, 11:42:49 AM »
Ok cool.

The prize is worth entering for and I'd love to win. I'm just going to go with my gut and not look at old Ayreon survivors etc to try and get the edge.

Offline Evermind

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #12 on: January 12, 2017, 12:01:23 PM »
:tup

Another thing that just came up in plug-dj room, I guess that's a bit unclear too and I want to clarify it:

You guys can send me only the predictions for the albums you know, leaving the other albums blank. But you won't be able to edit it after January 25th (except for one Album Survivor of your choice, Consolations, Finals and Grand Finals). If you have blank predictions for some albums, that means you will get 0 points for them. But you still can participate even if some of your predictions are blank, that just a disadvantage for you.

Offline MirrorMask

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #13 on: January 12, 2017, 12:22:14 PM »
So no more wild guessing for the albums someone doesn't know?

Offline Evermind

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #14 on: January 12, 2017, 12:29:38 PM »
So no more wild guessing for the albums someone doesn't know?

No, look, if you don't know some albums and you won't be able to get familiar with them until January 25th, you can go ahead and wild guess them. Like, take a look at Wikipedia and predict something based on track lengths or track titles, that's alright. But if you don't want people to make fun at you for predicting the worst song possible on a wild guess, you may just leave those albums blank.

The thing is, I wanted to allow people do predictions from album to album as the Survivor goes along, but I think the discussion in the Survivor threads will inevitably give hints at which songs from upcoming albums people prefer. That would spoil a lot, so all the predictions have to be done until January 25th.

Did that clear things up or just made it more complicated?

Offline MirrorMask

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Re: Ayreon/Arjen Lucassen 2017 Survivor - Prediction Contest
« Reply #15 on: January 12, 2017, 12:40:03 PM »
Nah, it's fine, thanks  :tup