Author Topic: Syria discussion  (Read 1133 times)

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Offline Cool Chris

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Syria discussion
« on: October 30, 2016, 07:41:46 PM »
So, what the hell is going on over there anyway? Arabs, killing each other, with other Arabs getting caught up in the crossfire? Is this not an Arab problem, where Arabs are going to need to be the ones to find and implement the solutions?
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Offline Adami

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Re: Syria discussion
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2016, 08:17:36 PM »
I have no idea what you're asking.

Are you asking for the actual history of the conflict? Are you asking for a political analysis of it? Are you just saying that it's an Arab problem and other countries should leave and not turn back?

It's an Arab country. So obviously most of the people involved are Arab. But right now it's also a Russian problem and an Iranian Problem as well.
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Offline Cool Chris

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Re: Syria discussion
« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2016, 09:02:03 PM »
Just wanted a discussion about it, as I respect most of the users' views here, especially since they aren't pandering to their potential electorate.
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Offline El Barto

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Re: Syria discussion
« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2016, 08:25:41 AM »
Syria in a nutshell. Bashir al Assad wasn't our kind of guy so we undermine him for a decade or so. Our position is that everybody wants to be just like us, so give them an opportunity to be a democracy and they'll thank you for it. Not correct, but eventually enough Syrians start to believe it and revolt. al Assad brings the hammer down and war begins. The Rooskies have important business ties to Syria, and are therefore opposed to the chaos we bring when we go around "liberating" people. They support al Assad because he kept things running smoothly, even if not so kindly. Having two destabilized countries right next door to each other, along with the always entertaining Turk v Kurd situation, and the whole area becomes a vacuum where all sorts of people can vie for control.
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Offline Cool Chris

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Re: Syria discussion
« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2016, 01:32:28 PM »
Thank you EB, that was my high-level understanding of the basic issue. Aside from the whole "why should I give a crap?" aspect.
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Offline Adami

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Re: Syria discussion
« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2016, 01:40:00 PM »
Syria in a nutshell. Bashir al Assad wasn't our kind of guy so we undermine him for a decade or so. Our position is that everybody wants to be just like us, so give them an opportunity to be a democracy and they'll thank you for it. Not correct, but eventually enough Syrians start to believe it and revolt. al Assad brings the hammer down and war begins. The Rooskies have important business ties to Syria, and are therefore opposed to the chaos we bring when we go around "liberating" people. They support al Assad because he kept things running smoothly, even if not so kindly. Having two destabilized countries right next door to each other, along with the always entertaining Turk v Kurd situation, and the whole area becomes a vacuum where all sorts of people can vie for control.

That's a very american-centric perspective though. There is a LOT of history and a lot going on in Syria that isn't based on American actions.

In the end though, if you feel like not blaming America for everything wrong there, you can always remember that England and France are mostly to blame. ;)
« Last Edit: October 31, 2016, 02:25:45 PM by Adami »
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Offline hefdaddy42

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Re: Syria discussion
« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2016, 02:06:19 PM »
Preposterous.

j/k
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Offline El Barto

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Re: Syria discussion
« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2016, 02:27:00 PM »
Syria in a nutshell. Bashir al Assad wasn't our kind of guy so we undermine him for a decade or so. Our position is that everybody wants to be just like us, so give them an opportunity to be a democracy and they'll thank you for it. Not correct, but eventually enough Syrians start to believe it and revolt. al Assad brings the hammer down and war begins. The Rooskies have important business ties to Syria, and are therefore opposed to the chaos we bring when we go around "liberating" people. They support al Assad because he kept things running smoothly, even if not so kindly. Having two destabilized countries right next door to each other, along with the always entertaining Turk v Kurd situation, and the whole area becomes a vacuum where all sorts of people can vie for control.

That's a very american-centric perspective though. There is a LOT of history and a lot going on in Syria that isn't based on American actions.

In the end though, if you feel like not blaming America for everything wrong there, you can always remember that England and France are mostly to blame. ;)
I was going for the nut-shell version of the current conflict. The various levels of sectarian strife didn't seem necessary. However, I'm certainly interested in things I shouldn't have left out.
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Offline Adami

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Re: Syria discussion
« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2016, 02:37:51 PM »
We look at Syria now, and the attempts as multiple Coupes (failed, due to American and Russian and Iranian interference) as some new thing caused by America. In reality, almost every political change Syria has experienced since 1945 has been the result of a military uprising of some kind or another. The idea of introducing freedom or democracy and the people trying to fight for their rights etc etc, while probably true on some small level, in small groups, is largely Western spin on how things are just generally done there. The main change to countries like Syria, Iraq, Egypt etc, is that suddenly Western countries want them to have freedom. Had everyone just left them be, Assad likely would have been overthrown and replaced by a likely more strictly religious party who would have also eventually been overthrown. The violence there isn't caused, really, by an outside country, it's business as usual. However, other countries constantly trying to curtail the violence is making it last longer and longer.

Right now, Iran and Russia have done more to mess up Syria than America ever did. Though most of it is a result of the changing paradigm in the middle east which is essentially a huge existential identity crisis.
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Offline El Barto

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Re: Syria discussion
« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2016, 03:16:04 PM »
I'm not sure how that's really all that different than my version. We encouraged the latest coup and backed the rebels. I get that it probably would have happened anyway, but it does seem like this one is sort of on us.
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Offline Adami

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Re: Syria discussion
« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2016, 03:32:33 PM »
I'm not sure how that's really all that different than my version. We encouraged the latest coup and backed the rebels. I get that it probably would have happened anyway, but it does seem like this one is sort of on us.

It's like looking at the making of a famous album from exclusively the perspective of the recording engineer. Did they play an important role? Of course, but the big picture is being missed.
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Offline bosk1

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Re: Syria discussion
« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2016, 04:29:28 PM »
Which means that David Prater is the root cause for the situation in Syria?
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Offline cramx3

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Re: Syria discussion
« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2016, 04:55:33 PM »
Which means that David Prater is the root cause for the situation in Syria?

He has been supporting ISIS for the last 30 years.

Offline hefdaddy42

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Re: Syria discussion
« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2016, 08:08:29 AM »
Which means that David Prater is the root cause for the situation in Syria?
Isn't it obvious?
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Offline El Barto

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Re: Syria discussion
« Reply #14 on: April 05, 2017, 02:38:21 PM »
So Grabby has kind of backed himself into a corner here, and I'm not sure there's actually any realistic exit. After the gas attack yesterday he naturally blamed Obama; that's what he does. In essence, Obama created an ultimatum and Bashir disregarded it with no consequences, thus emboldening him. Trump has now, both expressly and by invoking Obama, created the exact same ultimatum. What's he supposed to do? Bomb Damascus? This situation's certainly a mess, and Obama did come out of that looking like a wuss, but I really don't know what we're supposed to do about it. Yet, Grabby's going to have to do something now. Assad has to know that we're in a far worse position to intervene now, what with Russia acting as his proxy air force. Threats won't matter. The original plan was to get Putin to settle Assad down, but Putin's deflecting blame for him. No help there. So now what?
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Offline Chino

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Re: Syria discussion
« Reply #15 on: April 05, 2017, 03:36:39 PM »
My guess is that Trump will stay completely silent and back whatever Putin wants to do behind the scenes. Funny seeing Trump pin this on Obama not being harsh enough in Syria when Trump thought we shouldn't do anything in the first place.

"The only reason President Obama wants to attack Syria is to save face over his very dumb RED LINE statement. Do NOT attack Syria,fix U.S.A."

Offline hefdaddy42

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Re: Syria discussion
« Reply #16 on: April 06, 2017, 08:38:02 AM »
My guess is that Trump will stay completely silent
Not really his style.
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Offline Chino

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Re: Syria discussion
« Reply #17 on: April 06, 2017, 08:47:01 AM »
My guess is that Trump will stay completely silent
Not really his style.

True. I'll rephrase. Trump won't stay silent. He'll avoid discussing the issue at all costs, and if his hand is forced, he'll turn it into a Clinton lost/Obama fucked up discussion.

Offline Stadler

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Re: Syria discussion
« Reply #18 on: April 06, 2017, 08:52:52 AM »
My guess is that Trump will stay completely silent and back whatever Putin wants to do behind the scenes. Funny seeing Trump pin this on Obama not being harsh enough in Syria when Trump thought we shouldn't do anything in the first place.

"The only reason President Obama wants to attack Syria is to save face over his very dumb RED LINE statement. Do NOT attack Syria,fix U.S.A."

I respect both of your opinions, but I don't think it's that binary.  He can rag on Obama for putting him there and do nothing on the grounds that the "cards have already been played" and the choice really isn't his.   Not the best response, but then again, it's not like Trump has been lighting it up with his responses so far ("Crooked judges!").   This won't phase him.

I don't know about anyone else - with the negativity here for Trump, I'm going to guess not - but there's been a shift lately.  Bannon, demoted.  Nunes, recused.   Healthcare back (but with the buy-in of the Freedom Caucus - called that one, mofos, and the Libs are NOT going to like the result).  Trump's not in the vacuum that many think he is, and I don't at all agree that he's just fellating Putin until Putin tells him to get him another vodka. 

Offline El Barto

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Re: Syria discussion
« Reply #19 on: April 06, 2017, 08:54:30 AM »
Speculation this morning is that he'll try to negotiate a deal, which Un is seemingly receptive to. Pretty much exactly what he'd be blasting Obama for, and would essentially be naming KJU the winner.
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Offline El Barto

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Re: Syria discussion
« Reply #20 on: April 06, 2017, 09:04:38 AM »
Healthcare back (but with the buy-in of the Freedom Caucus - called that one, mofos, and the Libs are NOT going to like the result).
As did I, mo'fucker.  :lol

Thankfully, the newer plan will be so harsh I think they'll lose even more moderate republicans, and thus the fight, once again. It was already going to dump a helluva lot of people who relied on it (and as opposed to total number of insured, that is a valid metric), and from what I've seen the new plan would fuck over people with pre-existing conditions. If they want to ram something through the combination of blocs they'll need to get the votes is moderate republicans with some democrats, which Ryan has already ruled out.
Argument, the presentation of reasonable views, never makes headway against conviction, and conviction takes no part in argument because it knows.
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Offline El Barto

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Re: Syria discussion
« Reply #21 on: September 28, 2017, 12:38:27 PM »
So it looks like the next chapter of the Syrian war is coming up pretty quickly, and man, it's a doozy. The Kurds, quite predictably, want political independence. We all knew this was coming. The Iraqis won't have any part of it, and I suspect Turkey is pretty concerned about it, too. Syria, as well, for whatever that's worth. In the meantime, it's quite possible that with their experience fighting ISIL, the Kurdish Peshmerga beat the bejeezus out of the Iraqi army should it come to that. This puts the US in an interesting situation. We've been real cool with the Kurds doing the heavy lifting on the Syrian front, good allies to have, but we're married to Iraq. Moreover, we're in pretty tight with Turkey. Turkey's also now pretty tight with Uncle Vlad, who's probably more likely than us to back them up if the Kurds cause trouble. All this in an areas where we desperately need stability to keep the Syria/ISIL situation manageable. Lastly, we're governed by a man with the geopolitical understanding of a codfish. Good times.

I suppose that the best possibility to salvage the situation is to convince the Kurds to hang tight for a while. However, I find it more likely that the Kurds laugh at the prospect and our president responds with antagonistic tweets. They're in a fairly strong position and have to realize they'll never get a better shot. It's all or nothing for them.

And this, kids, is why you don't stir shit up in the Middle East.
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Offline XeRocks81

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Re: Syria discussion
« Reply #22 on: September 28, 2017, 08:00:23 PM »
if anyone deserves their own country at this point itís the Kurds.