I love these questions. If you don't take the water golem strategy, here's what I would do:
Apply for the position, and here's why:
- we rarely regret chances taken ('what we do'), but often regret opportunities lost ('what we don't do').
- you don't even HAVE the position yet, so cross that bridge when you get there, but...
- you have no ideas if either the old or the new position might be flexible in days/times.
I'm going through this with my oldest son (stepson, technically, but...). He's 22, and just out of basic training with the Army. He knows what he WANTS to do, but each time we talk with him it's "well, there's no positions", or "I don't want to do that", or "it conflicts with this or that", and I keep telling him, you can't win if you don't play.
I can't tell you how many times I have gotten jobs or opportunities from just going to talk to people. "Hey, you're not a great fit for THIS job, but are you interested in THAT job instead"? In all three of my last position (including the one I have now, which I just accepted Wednesday) I was told that I would have to relocate my family for the position. I won all three, and have not moved once (and won't have to). It's not because I'm great, or anything (well...), it's that I don't assume anything, except that "everything is up for negotiation".
APPLY. You'll figure it out.