Author Topic: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.  (Read 20669 times)

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Offline DragonAttack

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #735 on: March 25, 2024, 12:02:26 PM »
The wife and I will be in DC to see the Red Wings tomorrow night for the first time in ten years (Covid and life have interfered since).  Win or lose, it’s always been a great experience seeing all the fellow Detroit fans.  So far, the Cap fans have been nothing but kind (and even pleasureable) to chat and sit with.

This is the first year in eons where I’ve been following the Wings on a game by game basis (instead of checking the standings every 7-10 days) and even watched a few games in the process.   Their six game winning streak put them 8 points up for the 8th spot a while back, only to be followed by a seven game losing streak.   >:(  Caps are now one point up with one less game played.  The first time we’ll be in attendance where the game truly means something.

I do ‘follow’ the Capitols, and tune in for some games.  Glad they won the Stanley Cup a few years back, while all the too early exits have been disappointing.  Any hockey talk just dries up around here after they’ve been eliminated.

Ovechkin:  well, I’m not a fan of Putin fans, so my rooting interest of him has become nil over the last few years.
...going along with Dragon Attack's Queen thread has been like taking a free class in Queen knowledge. Where else are you gonna find info like that?!

Offline jingle.boy

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #736 on: March 25, 2024, 12:08:33 PM »
People say there is asterisks if Ovi breaks the record, you got to remember.  Gretzky had like one shortened season (due to lockout) in his NHL career (and the seasons where he had his fair shares of injuries) while Ovi missed his rookie season (04-05), the 2013 season had only 48 games in the season, and the 2021 season had 56 games, and the 2020 season was missing 10 games due to the pandemic.  Missing around 150 games in that span due to circumstances non-health related that's out of his hands.  He could have broken that record like last year if he had a chance to play those games.

Fair point... I forgot his rookie season would've been 04/05
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Offline SchecterShredder

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #737 on: March 25, 2024, 12:13:23 PM »
The subject of asterisks next to records makes zero sense in this context.  I get having one next to Bonds' HR record considering he was on more juice than a large scale, commercial Florida orchard. If we're going to asterisk Ovi's goal total, then we might as well just erase all stats prior to the 90s or asterisk all those record considering how awful defense and goaltending was. All stanley cup wins prior to the 70s expansion? Might as well not count those either since there were fewer teams.

Either you have separate eras like the NBA or you take the records as they stand.

Offline Stadler

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #738 on: March 25, 2024, 12:21:43 PM »
I agree with SchecterShredder.   And it's not a new issue; WWII severely impacted the stats of many great players. Oh well.

Offline pg1067

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #739 on: March 25, 2024, 12:34:03 PM »
People say there is asterisks if Ovi breaks the record, you got to remember.  Gretzky had like one shortened season (due to lockout) in his NHL career (and the seasons where he had his fair shares of injuries) while Ovi missed his rookie season (04-05), the 2013 season had only 48 games in the season, and the 2021 season had 56 games, and the 2020 season was missing 10 games due to the pandemic.  Missing around 150 games in that span due to circumstances non-health related that's out of his hands.  He could have broken that record like last year if he had a chance to play those games.

I don't know what sort of asterisk you might put on Ovechkin getting the record.  Assuming Ovechkin gets it, it will take him slightly more games.

Gretzky:  894 goals in 1,487 games = 0.6012 GPG
Ovechkin:  848 goals in 1,414 games  = 0.5997 GPG

But that's not asterisk-worthy.  What you'll typically hear is chatter unrelated to the goals record:  oh, well, while he was scoring all those goals, Gretz also had nearly thrice as many assists as Ovechkin.  I think a lot of folks forget that defensive play when Gretzky was on the Oilers was not close to the same level it has been during Ovechkin's career.

During Gretzky's tenure in Edmonton (1979-1988) goals per game in the NHL ranged between 3.51 and 4.01.  By contrast, during Ovechkin's career (2005-2024), GPG ranged from 2.71-3.14.  When you break down Gretzky's Oilers numbers to the rest of his career, the distinction becomes even more clear:

Gretzky with Edmonton:  583 goals in 696 games = 0.8376 GPG
Gretzky with everyone else:  311 goals in 791 = 0.3932 GPG

Gretzky in Edmonton was on video game mode.  It would be interesting to run a simulation with Ovechkin on the '79-'88 Oilers.

Honestly, aside from otherworldly goal scoring ability, the biggest thing Gretz and Ovechkin have in common was/is the ability to stay healthy.  Gretzky played in 92.48% of his teams' games (his worst seasons injury-wise were '87-'88, when he missed 16 games, and '92-'93, when he missed 35).  Ovechkin's percentage is even better; he has played in 95.99% of his team's games (his lowest GP total in a normal season was 72 games in 2009-10!).  Of course, you don't break records like these without staying healthy, but both of these guys were very fortunate in that regard.
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Offline romdrums

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #740 on: March 25, 2024, 01:52:47 PM »
I agree with SchecterShredder.   And it's not a new issue; WWII severely impacted the stats of many great players. Oh well.

My Dad and I once did the math on Ted Williams, given that he lost a total of 5 full seasons due to WWII and the Korean War. Just taking the average season for him, and multiplying those numbers by 5, and he would have finished 2nd in home runs at over 650 when he retired, with close to 3500 hits. His numbers were amazing, but they would've been that much more ridiculous if he hadn't lost time to those wars.
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Offline Stadler

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #741 on: March 25, 2024, 02:54:19 PM »
I don't know what sort of asterisk you might put on Ovechkin getting the record.  Assuming Ovechkin gets it, it will take him slightly more games.

Gretzky:  894 goals in 1,487 games = 0.6012 GPG
Ovechkin:  848 goals in 1,414 games  = 0.5997 GPG

But that's not asterisk-worthy.  What you'll typically hear is chatter unrelated to the goals record:  oh, well, while he was scoring all those goals, Gretz also had nearly thrice as many assists as Ovechkin.  I think a lot of folks forget that defensive play when Gretzky was on the Oilers was not close to the same level it has been during Ovechkin's career.

During Gretzky's tenure in Edmonton (1979-1988) goals per game in the NHL ranged between 3.51 and 4.01.  By contrast, during Ovechkin's career (2005-2024), GPG ranged from 2.71-3.14.  When you break down Gretzky's Oilers numbers to the rest of his career, the distinction becomes even more clear:

Gretzky with Edmonton:  583 goals in 696 games = 0.8376 GPG
Gretzky with everyone else:  311 goals in 791 = 0.3932 GPG

Gretzky in Edmonton was on video game mode.  It would be interesting to run a simulation with Ovechkin on the '79-'88 Oilers.

Honestly, aside from otherworldly goal scoring ability, the biggest thing Gretz and Ovechkin have in common was/is the ability to stay healthy.  Gretzky played in 92.48% of his teams' games (his worst seasons injury-wise were '87-'88, when he missed 16 games, and '92-'93, when he missed 35).  Ovechkin's percentage is even better; he has played in 95.99% of his team's games (his lowest GP total in a normal season was 72 games in 2009-10!).  Of course, you don't break records like these without staying healthy, but both of these guys were very fortunate in that regard.

How much of that was BECAUSE of Gretsky, though? 

Offline pg1067

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #742 on: March 25, 2024, 04:21:38 PM »
How much of that was BECAUSE of Gretsky, though?

I'm not going to do every season, but the lead average goals per game in 1981-82 was 4.01, which is the highest number in the post-expansion era.  There were 840 games played that season, so that tells me that there were approximately 3,368 goals scored that season (4.01 x 840 = 3,368.4).  1981-82 was Gretzky's 92 goal/120 assist season, so that's 212 goals for which he was directly responsible.  Let's assume that a league average player scored 75 points that season, so that reduces the total number of goals from 3,368 to 3,231 (3,368 - 212 + 75).  Over 840 games, that gives us an average of 3.85.  I'm sure that's a flawed analysis (if nothing else, it's way oversimplified), and it says a lot about the value of Gretzky.  It's also a bit of a chicken/egg question.  Was the league average so high because of Gretzky, or did Gretzky score so much because no one was playing defense?

By the way, Gretzky's +/- that season was 80, which is tied for 12th all-time (but not his personal best, which was 100 in 1984-85 - third all time behind Bobby Orr's 124 in 1970-71 and Larry Robinson's 120  in 1976-77).

Also by the way, 49 of the top 50 all-time best +/- seasons were from 1985-86 or earlier.  Anyone want to guess the most recent top-50 +/- season?
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Offline pg1067

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #743 on: March 25, 2024, 04:31:38 PM »
My Dad and I once did the math on Ted Williams, given that he lost a total of 5 full seasons due to WWII and the Korean War. Just taking the average season for him, and multiplying those numbers by 5, and he would have finished 2nd in home runs at over 650 when he retired, with close to 3500 hits. His numbers were amazing, but they would've been that much more ridiculous if he hadn't lost time to those wars.

The Splinter was a g-damn beast.  Dude broke combat pilot training records and was John Glenn's wingman in Korea.
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Offline gmillerdrake

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #744 on: March 25, 2024, 05:39:35 PM »
All things being equal.....if I had to pick a player 'in his prime' to build a team around it's Mario Lemieux every day of the week and twice on Sunday. You could put Mario in his prime in todays game and he's getting you 35/40 goals a year.....#99 might break 20 if he was lucky.

I know we've had this discussion a hundred times before....it's the whole 'eras' thing....but...IMO Mario was a better goal scorer and all around player than #99....and Ovi isn't even in the same realm as Mario as a complete player.
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Offline pg1067

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #745 on: March 25, 2024, 06:05:59 PM »
All things being equal.....if I had to pick a player 'in his prime' to build a team around it's Mario Lemieux every day of the week and twice on Sunday. You could put Mario in his prime in todays game and he's getting you 35/40 goals a year.....#99 might break 20 if he was lucky.

I know we've had this discussion a hundred times before....it's the whole 'eras' thing....but...IMO Mario was a better goal scorer and all around player than #99....and Ovi isn't even in the same realm as Mario as a complete player.

I'll agree that Lemieux would probably fare better in "today's NHL" than would Gretzky.  Not sure I'm prepared to go beyond that.
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Offline jingle.boy

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #746 on: March 25, 2024, 08:02:51 PM »
Lindholm/Tkachuk/Gaudreau were all +50 a few years back. Which is pretty goddamned amazing a single line did it together.
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Offline Stadler

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #747 on: March 26, 2024, 06:09:41 AM »
I'm not going to do every season, but the lead average goals per game in 1981-82 was 4.01, which is the highest number in the post-expansion era.  There were 840 games played that season, so that tells me that there were approximately 3,368 goals scored that season (4.01 x 840 = 3,368.4).  1981-82 was Gretzky's 92 goal/120 assist season, so that's 212 goals for which he was directly responsible.  Let's assume that a league average player scored 75 points that season, so that reduces the total number of goals from 3,368 to 3,231 (3,368 - 212 + 75).  Over 840 games, that gives us an average of 3.85.  I'm sure that's a flawed analysis (if nothing else, it's way oversimplified), and it says a lot about the value of Gretzky.  It's also a bit of a chicken/egg question.  Was the league average so high because of Gretzky, or did Gretzky score so much because no one was playing defense?

By the way, Gretzky's +/- that season was 80, which is tied for 12th all-time (but not his personal best, which was 100 in 1984-85 - third all time behind Bobby Orr's 124 in 1970-71 and Larry Robinson's 120  in 1976-77).

Also by the way, 49 of the top 50 all-time best +/- seasons were from 1985-86 or earlier.  Anyone want to guess the most recent top-50 +/- season?

All I know is that I've seen Gretzsky, Howe (though not in his prime) and Lemieux play live, and to this day I've never seen anyone play the game like Gretzky.   

Offline jingle.boy

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #748 on: March 26, 2024, 06:20:13 AM »
The Mt. Rushmore will always be Howe, Orr, Gretz, Lemiuex (in chronological order).  I really don't see anyone ever surpassing the impact those four had on the game of their era. I mean for every conversation that brings up a "generational" talent in this millenium, another one comes around within a few years.  Ovi, Sid, Kuch, McDavid, Matthews, Bedard.  And the hype is already building for Cellebrini.
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Offline billboy73

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #749 on: March 26, 2024, 07:52:16 AM »

First... Guentzel looks great on the line with Jarvis and Aho.  The Canes are my pick to make the Final out of the East at this point.


That's the other piece I didn't mention.  Jarvis has been so good over the past month or so.  I really love his game.

Offline jingle.boy

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #750 on: March 26, 2024, 07:56:04 AM »
That's the other piece I didn't mention.  Jarvis has been so good over the past month or so.  I really love his game.

And as jingle.boy continually reminds me, Jarvis was the 1st rd pick the Canes got from the Leafs in order for them to dump Marleau's salary on them a few years back.
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Offline romdrums

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #751 on: March 26, 2024, 07:57:14 AM »
Lindholm/Tkachuk/Gaudreau were all +50 a few years back. Which is pretty goddamned amazing a single line did it together.

Gaudreau was the leader at +64. Prior to that, the last player to get a +60 or higher was Vladimir Konstantinov in 95/96, and Gretzky with a +69 ( :metal) in 86/87.
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Offline pg1067

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #752 on: March 26, 2024, 09:33:09 AM »
Gaudreau was the leader at +64. Prior to that, the last player to get a +60 or higher was Vladimir Konstantinov in 95/96, and Gretzky with a +69 ( :metal) in 86/87.

That's the one.  Gaudreau's +64 season in 2021-22 is the only +/- in the top-50 all time that occurred post-1986-87 (I previously wrote 1985-86 - off by a year).

Here's another fun trivia question.  Of the top-50 +/- seasons in NHL history, 45 of them were posted by Canadian born players, and 3 were posted by U.S. born players.  Can you name the other two?  One is probably fairly easy, but the other is not.
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Offline jingle.boy

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #753 on: March 26, 2024, 09:37:58 AM »
Without looking .... Apparently Konstatinov is one.   :lol

Surely Lindstrom is the other.

Salming?

If it's a forward, Tikkanen or Kurri?
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Offline romdrums

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #754 on: March 26, 2024, 09:43:55 AM »
Kurri is one of them, and he is Finnish. Ken Hodge is the other, and he's British.
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Offline romdrums

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #755 on: March 26, 2024, 09:44:30 AM »
Without looking .... Apparently Konstatinov is one.   :lol

Surely Lindstrom is the other.

Salming?

If it's a forward, Tikkanen or Kurri?

Who's Lindstrom?
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Offline jingle.boy

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #756 on: March 26, 2024, 09:48:54 AM »
Who's Lindstrom?

lol... my bad.

Also, technically Rod Langway was born in Taiwan (which I didn't know until about 45 seconds ago).
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Offline pg1067

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #757 on: March 26, 2024, 09:53:41 AM »
Without looking .... Apparently Konstatinov is one.   :lol

Surely Lindstrom is the other.

Salming?

If it's a forward, Tikkanen or Kurri?

Konstantinov's best +/- season was +60 in 1995-96, which is #59 on the all-time list, so nope, not him.

Lidstrom's best season was "only" +43.  And Salming's best was +45.

Kurri is correct - the easier of the two.  He put up a +78 in 1984-85 (tied for 16th all-time with 83-84 Gretzky and the immortal Brian Engblom, who has two top-50 +/- seasons as a result of his time in Montreal).

Hodge put up a +69 in 1970-71 with the Bruins (tying him with several others, including Gretzky, for 33rd all-time).


Also, technically Rod Langway was born in Taiwan (which I didn't know until about 45 seconds ago).

Hmmm...not sure why the site I was looking at listed Hodge as British (based on being born in Birmingham even though he was raised in Canada) but didn't do the same with Langway.

Oh well.
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Offline jingle.boy

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #758 on: March 26, 2024, 10:13:17 AM »
Mundane, but true!   :lol
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Offline romdrums

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #759 on: March 26, 2024, 10:44:40 AM »
lol... my bad.


 :D No worries. You wouldn't believe (or maybe you would) how often it happens on the Red Wings' FB accounts. I love trolling those people. What made it even more fun was when the Wings had Gustav Lindstrom on their defense for a while. I would ask if he was who they meant all the time!
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Offline jingle.boy

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #760 on: March 28, 2024, 11:57:49 AM »
This looks cool!  I don't remember this story/situation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0Kl7yt-Lps
That's a word salad - and take it from me, I know word salad
I fear for the day when something happens on the right that is SO nuts that even Stadler says "That's crazy".
Quote from: Puppies_On_Acid
Remember the mark of a great vocalist is if TAC hates them with a special passion

Offline gmillerdrake

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #761 on: March 28, 2024, 12:07:27 PM »
This looks cool!  I don't remember this story/situation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0Kl7yt-Lps

It was a while ago and I didn't follow a lot of the peripheral stuff back then like I do now. Just read about this the other day about how the success of 'Air Force One' basically kept Sakic in Colorado. Crazy....
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Offline Anguyen92

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #762 on: March 28, 2024, 12:32:21 PM »
I never heard about this story regarding Sakic as well.  I guess that explains why in 97-98 according to CapFriendly he made $17M that year.  The Rangers were willing to throw money at anything after Messier left and Gretzky was on his last legs of his career and I guess this was one of these plays they wanted to do in the period before there was a salary cap.


Offline pg1067

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #763 on: March 28, 2024, 01:46:52 PM »
This looks cool!  I don't remember this story/situation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0Kl7yt-Lps

Yeah...I don't remember this either.  Per Wikipedia:  "As a free agent during the summer of 1997, Sakic signed a three-year, $21 million offer sheet with the New York Rangers as a restricted free agent.  Under the collective bargaining agreement at the time, the Avalanche had one week to match the Rangers' offer or let go of Sakic in exchange for five first-round draft picks as compensation.  While it seemed as if the Avs could not afford to keep Sakic as they had already committed large amounts of salary to Peter Forsberg and Patrick Roy, an unlikely lifeline would appear in the form of the movie Air Force One, produced by Avalanche owners COMSAT and a blockbuster hit that summer.  Its profits enabled Colorado to match the offer, which instigated a salary raise for many NHL players."

Interesting, but it seems like a bit of a stretch for anything longer than a 10-15 minute featurette.
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Offline jingle.boy

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Re: NHL 2023-2024: On the final stretch now.
« Reply #764 on: March 28, 2024, 06:50:29 PM »
So let's look at this, I mean it's not for certain that the Avs would've made the same picks, but here's the 5 First Round spots they would've received. Of course, this doesn't account for any different/higher placement they might have made with the addition of Sakic to the roster.

1998 - 7th (Manny Maholtra)
1999 - 4th (Pavel Brendl)
2000 - 8th (traded to Tampa / Nikita Alexeev)
2001 - 10th (Dan Blackburn)
2002 - 10th (traded to Calgary / Eric Nystrom)

Based on that, seems the Avs made the right decision.  Those were some pretty meek draft years.  Other than the Sedins, there are like no HOF'rs that I could easily see from the first 2 rounds in any of those years.
That's a word salad - and take it from me, I know word salad
I fear for the day when something happens on the right that is SO nuts that even Stadler says "That's crazy".
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