Election 2012

[TL]

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you, the 2012 electoral map. Red is Obama, Blue is Romney. 389/149


Texas will be closer than usual, due to the rapidly increasing Latino population, and their growing disapproval of the GOP. Romney will still most likely hold it though.

I may do a projection later for Obama vs Santorum, though we won't actually need that one.

[rumborak]

Dare I ask on what you base those projections?

rumborak

[jsem]

Why are the colors flipped? Lol

[TL]

Why are the colors flipped? Lol

The site I happened to use has them that way. As it should be though. Every proper country represents the left wing party with red and right wing party with blue.

Dare I ask on what you base those projections?

A combination of results from 2008, looking at certain factors in states that were close in either direction, and a bit of instinct.

To his credit, Romney will get Indiana back into the Republican column, so... that's something.

[kirksnosehair]

That map is ridiculous 

Go here for the best projections of electoral college voting:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

[TL]

That map is ridiculous 

Go here for the best projections of electoral college voting:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

I really don't think that projection is all that far fetched. What exactly do you disagree with, and why?

Heck, if Santorum wins the nomination, Texas might be in play for the first time in 36 years.

I think the most far fetched part of my projection is Montana going for the Democrats. Some might think the most unlikely part would be Georgia, but that state was much closer than expected in 2008, and both it and South Carolina have seen some big demographic shifts over the past four years.

[jsem]

Why are the colors flipped? Lol

The site I happened to use has them that way. As it should be though. Every proper country represents the left wing party with red and right wing party with blue.

Yup. The republicans used to be more to the left than Dems, before the progressive era.

[kirksnosehair]

That map is ridiculous 

Go here for the best projections of electoral college voting:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

I really don't think that projection is all that far fetched. What exactly do you disagree with, and why?

You've got Obama winning in what amounts to an electoral landslide.  Ain't gonna happen.

[TL]

Yup. The republicans used to be more to the left than Dems, before the progressive era.

Plus, the colors for the Democrats and Republicans weren't really standardized until the 1980s.

You've got Obama winning in what amounts to an electoral landslide.  Ain't gonna happen.

I have him winning a few more states than he did against McCain (and one state he won in '08 going back to the Republicans) against a weaker candidate than McCain, after a primary season that isn't doing the Republicans any favors. The Dakotas may stay in the Republican column, but even then, that's just 6 electoral votes.

With some of the margins, and the outdated practice of the electoral college, a few thousand votes going the other way can shift quite a few electoral votes.

This said, I invite you guys to make your own projections. I think this could be an interesting topic of discussion.

[kirksnosehair]

I'm pretty much in agreement with the RealClearPolitics view right now.  Obama will win, but he will not have any mandate.

[rumborak]

The site I happened to use has them that way. As it should be though. Every proper country represents the left wing party with red and right wing party with blue.

Nah. At least in Germany right-wing is associated with the color black. (and extreme right-wing with brown, because those were the colors of the Nazi uniforms).

rumborak

[Scheavo]

I think the most far fetched part of my projection is Montana going for the Democrats.

Probably not, but it wouldn't really shock me either.

[snapple]

I'm pretty much in agreement with the RealClearPolitics view right now.  Obama will win, but he will not have any mandate.

No he won't. 

[antigoon]

lol

[Scheavo]

I'm pretty much in agreement with the RealClearPolitics view right now.  Obama will win, but he will not have any mandate.

I'm more and more convinced this is going to be a landslide for Obama. Wait till the presidential debates, it'll become very clear who is a better candidate. If Romney looks strong, it's by comparison.

*edit*

Foreign policy could easily stil be an important issue, and republicans are all fear-mongering, and I don't know anyone who wants more War. Obama has a strong moderate record on the issue.

[Riceball]

My contribution to the Election 2012 debate today:

https://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/09/opinion/krugman-ignorance-is-strength.html?_r=1&smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto

Based on this, a more generous education policy looks like it could be winner for Obama should he pursue it. The Republicans look like they don't give a shit, basically, and even if they do these remarks will come back to haunt whoever becomes the candidate. Ofcourse, this raises the issue of how to pay for any reform, but I would be of the view that if you can break your implicit deficit reduction rules on one area, this would be it (or infrastructure investment).

[Riceball]

Maybe that's why Australia is sliding into a surveillance state.

Any Aussies like to confirm this? No offense, the claim just seems like the sort that would come from someone with whom I regularly disagree about U.S.'s becoming a nanny state.

Kinda had the same reaction to that post. Reminds me of Santorum claiming that Dutch elders run around with "do not euthanize" bracelets.

rumborak

It wasn't meant as a serious post. I wouldn't ever blame that on compulsory voting.
On a more serious note though, Australia has relative economic freedom but the people are losing the civil liberties battle over there.

Haha compulsory voting is good and bad, but I reckon it turns the Westminster system into a pseudo-presidential style system, where the layperson basically votes for the leader rather than their local member. I remember reading a book on Australia's social evolution that said ~60 per cent of voters didn't actually know they were voting for their local member as oppose to the leader of the party

Oh and the whole civil liberties thing - Aussies don't really care about that in the main, its too confusing for most people. In my view, we aren't losing rights or anything like that. I mean, there is a cold war going on between the Murdoch press and the Federal government, but we've got nothing like the TSA stuff that you guys regularly whinge about, and we've got rallys and shit going on every other week. So I don't think there is an erosion liberties.

[rumborak]

If PPP Polls is to be believed, the base is now finally falling in line with Romney. Apparently support for Santorum is collapsing. Given that of course Gingrich isn't going anywhere and Paul doesn't even get reported on anymore. So, this might be finally the end of the road.

rumborak

[Super Dude]

Well, as long as Obama wins, I don't care if it's by a small margin.

[Scheavo]

If PPP Polls is to be believed, the base is now finally falling in line with Romney. Apparently support for Santorum is collapsing. Given that of course Gingrich isn't going anywhere and Paul doesn't even get reported on anymore. So, this might be finally the end of the road.

rumborak

I've been hearing that do like two weeks now.

[TL]

We'll see how Santorum does in the next few primaries. He'll probably do well in Alabama and Mississippi. With Kansas, I have no idea. In Illinois, which would probably be a good state for Romney anyway, Santorum faces the same problem as Ohio, where by default he can't win some of the delegates there due to paperwork issues.

Romney will be the nominee; it's a matter now of how long Santorum can drag this out. The only outside chance Santorum has is keeping Romney from getting to 1144 delegates, and having a brokered convention (which probably won't happen).

Gingrich and Paul will stay in, but are both becoming less and less of a factor. Gingrich has been out for a while, with everyone but him knowing it. He'll continue to chip a few points off Santorum's totals in some states. Paul really needed a better performance on Super Tuesday to build/keep any momentum. If Maine had turned out better for him, or if he'd picked up even one state earlier this week, he'd still be a factor. He wouldn't have a shot at the nomination, but the upcoming primary season would have a lot less certainty.

If Santorum does well in a few upcoming states, I could see Romney not sealing the deal until May. If Santorum doesn't do well in the next few contests, Republicans will accept Romney sooner.

[chknptpie]

I'm basically convinced Romney wins the bid.... so begs the question, who becomes his running mate?!

[Super Dude]

Maybe Huntsman because at least that'll make him seem moderate.

[rumborak]

Is that what Romney would want though? His moderateness is already considered his fault somewhat in the GOP.

rumborak

[antigoon]

Rubio?

[lordxizor]

Is that what Romney would want though? His moderateness is already considered his fault somewhat in the GOP.

rumborak

The only real alternative would be Obama though. Unless there's a ultra conservative major third party candidate, Republicans are going to vote for Romney. He's the lesser of two evils. By selling his moderate side, he might pick up some undecided voters who aren't thrilled with Obama.

[antigoon]

Also I can't see "the Mormon ticket" going over too well with, y'know, those people.

[Super Dude]

Also, I dunno. Even though the GOP has essentially declared Romney the winner, there doesn't seem to be too much enthusiasm for any of the candidates anymore.

[lordxizor]

Also, I dunno. Even though the GOP has essentially declared Romney the winner, there doesn't seem to be too much enthusiasm for any of the candidates anymore.

Not really. This reminds me a lot of the Dems in 2004. There was no real excitement over Kerry then and an unpopular president was reelected.

[Chino]

I'm pretty much in agreement with the RealClearPolitics view right now.  Obama will win, but he will not have any mandate.

I'm more and more convinced this is going to be a landslide for Obama. Wait till the presidential debates, it'll become very clear who is a better candidate.

I want Santorum to get the nomination just for the awesome entertainment that he will deliiver while trying to debate Obama.

[lordxizor]

I'm pretty much in agreement with the RealClearPolitics view right now.  Obama will win, but he will not have any mandate.

I'm more and more convinced this is going to be a landslide for Obama. Wait till the presidential debates, it'll become very clear who is a better candidate.

I want Santorum to get the nomination just for the awesome entertainment that he will deliiver while trying to debate Obama.

I kind of think the same way except that there would be a small chance he would actually end up as president. Safer that he doesn't even get the nomination. I can live with Romney as president.

[Super Dude]

I can't. Romney would put us back to where we were at the start of the crash.

[kirksnosehair]

I'm pretty much in agreement with the RealClearPolitics view right now.  Obama will win, but he will not have any mandate.

I'm more and more convinced this is going to be a landslide for Obama. Wait till the presidential debates, it'll become very clear who is a better candidate.

I want Santorum to get the nomination just for the awesome entertainment that he will deliiver while trying to debate Obama.

I kind of think the same way except that there would be a small chance he would actually end up as president. Safer that he doesn't even get the nomination. I can live with Romney as president.

Nope, I really believe that Santorum would lose in a landslide to Obama because he can't draw independents and moderates.  You have to be able to attract independents and moderates in the general election.  This is why I think Romney makes a formidable candidate against Obama.  Both are equally moderate.  Romney's biggest problem now is he can't connect with middle class voters the same way Obama can.

[bosk1]

I can't. Romney would put us back to where we were at the start of the crash.

Hey, any improvement is still progress.

[kirksnosehair]

    Oh you