Election 2012

[bosk1]

Nah.  Hopefully, we'll be smart enough not to make the same mistake twice.

[jsem]

Yes.

[rumborak]

I think Romney has a reasonable chance. Santorum no, Gingrich and Paul hell no.

rumborak

[TL]

due to Santorum not filling out all of the proper paperwork (even if Santorum were to win Ohio in a landslide, he's literally ineligible to win at least a quarter of the state's delegates because of a clerical error).

What's this? I never heard about that.

More or less what it is; in Ohio, you need to fill out certain paperwork for each congressional district to be eligible to win that districts delegates. He didn't properly fill out the paperwork for as many as 9 of Ohio's congressional districts, so even if he 'wins' them, he can't get them. It's a very convoluted system.

Word has it he'll run into similar problems in Illinois.

[Super Dude]

Oh, and another reason I think Obama will win this election was what he did today. He does play the game of politics well, and he's become very good at distracting attention away from Republicans.

Referring to Obama's Iran comment?

[kirksnosehair]

At the end of the day, if Santorum or Romney win the nomination he will not have a chance against Obama.




Right?

Romney polls more strongly against Obama than Santorum who would lose in a landslide.  Anything can happen between now and then, but with the economy improving and Obama's approval ratings edging up, he's got a very good shot at two terms.  It's not a cakewalk, but I'd say he's got a better than 50/50 shot

[Scheavo]

At the end of the day, if Santorum or Romney win the nomination he will not have a chance against Obama.




Right?

I don't think so. Obama's good at debate, he'll play off extremely well to the cold Romney.

Plus, the Republican party is split. Enthusiasm is low, and getting lower. For the same reasons, Republicans keep doing things which mostly alienate themselves from the majority of Americans, because they're appealing to only part of just the conservatives.

[kirksnosehair]

This is where Obama is going to absolutely demolish Mitt Romney in the debates, if Romney is the nominee:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6DrH6P9OC0

Mitt Romney was for mandates before he was against being for taking a position against anyone who is for being against being for them.      

[rumborak]

I like this one better:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qyp2QIGejq4

rumborak

[antigoon]

Dear God. I think having the flexibility to change your mind on positions is a positive quality but man that's nuts

[emindead]

I prefer a guy who's at least consistent on his views, even if I'm against them. Seeing him in office, governed by his bipolar personality, is just

[snapple]

Independent voters who are pissed at the economy: "BUT HE'S A BUSINESS MAN"

Romney over Obama in 6 games.

[Super Dude]

I know it's way too soon to make a call in Georgia, but it's being interesting, isn't it?

[TL]

It will definitely be interesting if Romney finishes 3rd in Georgia. He was expected to come in a solid 2nd there.

Anyone who wants to see how Ohio turns out is going to be up late.

While Romney will win Virginia by a decent margin, Paul is holding his own there. Paul is also 2nd in Vermont by a few points over Santorum.

[bosk1]

I know it's way too soon to make a call in Georgia, but it's being interesting, isn't it?

How so?  Gingrich has almost twice as many votes as Santorum, with about 73% reporting.  Sounds like it's about over to me. 

EDIT:  Never mind.  I was looking at what percentage were reporting in VA.  GA still has a long way to go.  Carry on...   

[TL]

Gingrich winning in Georgia was more or less a given. The interesting thing there tonight will be seeing who takes 2nd.

Also, 5.1% of Tennessee has gone for 'Uncommitted' so far. Now, I will stress that only about 1% has reported there so far, and I'm expecting that percentage to drop dramatically, but if it doesn't, that would be interesting. For reference, 2% Uncommitted is typically considered high.

Also, I'm freaking myself out right now with my prediction in Virginia. In an election pool I have going with a few people, I picked 60/40 for Romney and Paul respectively. No one else placed Paul higher than 32. He's at 41.2 with 85% reporting.

[Super Dude]

I know it's way too soon to make a call in Georgia, but it's being interesting, isn't it?

How so?  Gingrich has almost twice as many votes as Santorum, with about 73% reporting.  Sounds like it's about over to me. 

EDIT:  Never mind.  I was looking at what percentage were reporting in VA.  GA still has a long way to go.  Carry on...   

Yeah, I was about to say...

[Scheavo]

Gingrich winning in Georgia was more or less a given. The interesting thing there tonight will be seeing who takes 2nd.

Also, 5.1% of Tennessee has gone for 'Uncommitted' so far. Now, I will stress that only about 1% has reported there so far, and I'm expecting that percentage to drop dramatically, but if it doesn't, that would be interesting. For reference, 2% Uncommitted is typically considered high.

Also, I'm freaking myself out right now with my prediction in Virginia. In an election pool I have going with a few people, I picked 60/40 for Romney and Paul respectively. No one else placed Paul higher than 32. He's at 41.2 with 85% reporting.

Well, it's him or romney, so that probably distorts things a little.

[TL]

Gingrich winning in Georgia was more or less a given. The interesting thing there tonight will be seeing who takes 2nd.

Also, 5.1% of Tennessee has gone for 'Uncommitted' so far. Now, I will stress that only about 1% has reported there so far, and I'm expecting that percentage to drop dramatically, but if it doesn't, that would be interesting. For reference, 2% Uncommitted is typically considered high.

Also, I'm freaking myself out right now with my prediction in Virginia. In an election pool I have going with a few people, I picked 60/40 for Romney and Paul respectively. No one else placed Paul higher than 32. He's at 41.2 with 85% reporting.

Well, it's him or romney, so that probably distorts things a little.

Most estimates going in had Paul winning 28 to 32%.

[bosk1]

Wow, Ohio is close.  It was looking like Santorum would take it, but a late run by Romney has him up half a point with about 15% left to report.  This is interesting.

[rumborak]

This thing will drag on for a looong time now. Santorum getting 3 states (or more) will make him go on.
I guess the only interesting thing will be what Gingrich and Paul decide to do now.

rumborak

[Super Dude]

This is gonna be a crazy year.

[TL]

This has been a really bad night for Paul. I'm basing that on what could have been reasonably expected for him. I definitely thought he would be at least closer in North Dakota, and Idaho was a runaway for Romney.
He also should have capitalized way more on Virginia. He just had to convince Santorum and Gingrich supporters that they'd be better off having those delegates go to Paul than Romney, but his campaign didn't really seem to make any kind of effort on that front.

I guess we'll see what happens in Alaska.

[soundgarden]

Mitt Romney IS flip-flopping with this talks.  However, from his records he is clearly a moderate Republican that is willing to work with the other side.  And more importantly, able to get things done as we saw in Mass.  All his speech now is just typical pandering to win votes.

If he becomes president and with the pressures of electioneering out of the way; I see him working with the Democrats towards moderately conservative policies.

Its one reason I am honestly thinking of voting for him.

[Super Dude]

Man, what's the deal with Wyoming?

[rumborak]

This has been a really bad night for Paul. I'm basing that on what could have been reasonably expected for him. I definitely thought he would be at least closer in North Dakota, and Idaho was a runaway for Romney.
He also should have capitalized way more on Virginia. He just had to convince Santorum and Gingrich supporters that they'd be better off having those delegates go to Paul than Romney, but his campaign didn't really seem to make any kind of effort on that front.

I guess we'll see what happens in Alaska.

Alaska is called for Romney too. From here on it's all winner takes all, which means show is over for Paul.

Wyoming yeah,wtf? Dud they forget how to count?

rumborak

[Chino]

This has been a really bad night for Paul. I'm basing that on what could have been reasonably expected for him. I definitely thought he would be at least closer in North Dakota, and Idaho was a runaway for Romney.
He also should have capitalized way more on Virginia. He just had to convince Santorum and Gingrich supporters that they'd be better off having those delegates go to Paul than Romney, but his campaign didn't really seem to make any kind of effort on that front.

I guess we'll see what happens in Alaska.

Alaska is called for Romney too. From here on it's all winner takes all, which means show is over for Paul.

Wyoming yeah,wtf? Dud they forget how to count?

rumborak

Dud you forget how to spell?   

[emindead]

Hover text says: "Frankly, I see no difference between thee and a summer's day. ONLY Ron Paul offers a true alternative!"
Too late?

[kirksnosehair]

Here are my projections for today's voting - these are the winners in each state:

Alaska:
Mitt Romney

Idaho:
Mitt Romney

North Dakota:
Mitt Romney

Georgia: 
Newt Gingrich

Massachusetts:
Mitt Romney

Ohio:
Mitt Romney

Oklahoma:
Rick Santorum

Tennessee:
Rick Santorum

Virginia:
Mitt Romney

Actual:

Alaska:
Mitt Romney

Idaho:
Mitt Romney

North Dakota:
Mitt Romney (wrong - it went to Santorum)

Georgia: 
Newt Gingrich

Massachusetts:
Mitt Romney

Ohio:
Mitt Romney

Oklahoma:
Rick Santorum

Tennessee:
Rick Santorum

Virginia:
Mitt Romney


I forgot about Vermont, but I would have gotten that right because I would have predicted a Romney win there too.

[berrege]

What are the predictions for the next major states (Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi)?

[Super Dude]

I really wonder if Kansas will vote for Romney? On the grounds of religion, I mean.

[TL]

Man, what is up with Wyoming indeed.
CNN still has their totals from when they did some sort of vote a week ago, while NYT has a completely different, very small set of numbers, still only at 26% reporting. They also have the 2008 totals for Wyoming at only 12 votes combined, which I'm assuming isn't correct.

[Super Dude]

I mean, normally there are only five people in the state of Wyoming; I suspect those seven others tried to rig the system by coming from other states.

[bosk1]

I mean, normally there are only five people in the state of Wyoming; I suspect those seven others tried to rig the system by coming from other states.

No, you're confusing Wyoming with Kentucky.  But it's not 5 people.  It's 5 million people, but only 5 last names.

[kirksnosehair]

What are the predictions for the next major states (Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi)?

hmm, without looking at any polling at all, I suspect all three of those are at least "in play" for Santorum, considering their proximity to the bible belt.  Lemme check the polling.  *brb*