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General => Archive => Political and Religious => Topic started by: Riceball on June 16, 2011, 10:29:26 PM
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From my perspective, things are looking pretty grim at the moment. For the first time ever, the world is faced with the prospect of a fairly significant (not uber significant) sovereign state going belly up in Greece. This would have serious implications for the Euro area, and by extension the global economy. Couple that with signs of overheating in developing Asia, the long-term public finance challenges faced by the US and Japan, and shambled labour markets in most of the developed world and its hard to be that optimistic at the moment.
This is different to the GFC, as that was primarily a private sector (even more specifically, private sector financial) phenomenon that spread to the real economy by contagion rather than the opposite; which is what is happening this time around. So, I ask you, where do you think we will be in 12 months time? If you could be so kind as to provide some words to back up your selection, that would be fab.
EDIT: for the record, I think option four is most likely given the current state of play.
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Options 3 and 4 are pretty much the same. Take your pick on either one of them.
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I think things are still going to get worse, particularly in Europe (over the Greece mess) and Asia. Stagnant wages and rising costs in the US are going to hurt, but I wouldn't predict a massive crumbling of the economy here. But who knows. I'm just a regular Joe.
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By TLC do you mean FTA?
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I don't think twelve months is enough time to get the world's act together. Look at the last three years; things have changed, but we're still in what many would consider a recession and barely a recovery. And I don't know shit about economics! :lol
Bring on the eudaimonia! :metalol:
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I recommend that you all start stocking up on food, water, and ammo 2 years ago. ;)
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I recommend that you all start stocking up on food, water, and ammo 2 years ago. ;)
Good idea, minus the ammo, that way everyone can work together and help everyone else. :)
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I recommend that you all start stocking up on food, water, and ammo 2 years ago. ;)
Good idea, minus the ammo, that way everyone can work together and help everyone else. :)
:tup
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I recommend that you all start stocking up on food, water, and ammo 2 years ago. ;)
Good idea, minus the ammo, that way everyone can work together and help everyone else. :)
LOL
Just like in Katrina.... no thanks. I'm saving for me and my family alone. When SHTF all I'm sharing is lead.
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Oh yes, you're the one who's sense of morality can be summed up as "F**k you!".
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Oh yes, you're the one who's sense of morality can be summed up as "F**k you!".
Depends. Bartering is important in tough times, but when the other side has nothing to offer then no thanks. OPSEC is important.. I can say whatever I want on a forum, but when it comes to reality, no one knows that I have anything (other than immediate family).
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Well, if you actually care about your survival in those cases, you should look at precedents. The groups that survive are usually the ones that implemented a mini-Communism, sharing all their resources. The loners usually croak from lack of clout against natural forces.
rumborak
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I recommend that you all start stocking up on food, water, and ammo 2 years ago. ;)
Also, I just thought of a question. I'm sure when you say you want lots of ammo, it's to protect yourself and your family from others who might want all of your base to belong to them. However, what if you didn't prepare properly? Just say you find yourself desperately needing something, and someone else has it who has no desire to give it away or trade it. Would you use the ammo to take it by force?
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I recommend that you all start stocking up on food, water, and ammo 2 years ago. ;)
Also, I just thought of a question. I'm sure when you say you want lots of ammo, it's to protect yourself and your family from others who might want all of your base to belong to them. However, what if you didn't prepare properly? Just say you find yourself desperately needing something, and someone else has it who has no desire to give it away or trade it. Would you use the ammo to take it by force?
I would NEVER harm anyone, unless it was for self defense. I am probably over prepared (well... no such thing really). I would be glad to provide details if anyone is curious or concerned, but it would have to be through PMs.
@rumborak - I agree and I do have several resources that have mutually agreed to barter certain specialties. However, we are very exclusive and for good reason.
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I find this really interesting, more from an engineering point of view.
When one does these preparations, what is the goal? Just having enough food and drink for X months in the expectation that society will have rebooted until then? Or do you try to be indefinitely self-sufficient?
Or, do you just guard yourself against the most likely reasons of said societal breakdown? E.g. you build a fallout shelter because you think a dirty bomb is the most likely, or a hermetically sealed room with internal air supply against biological attacks, or even H1N1?
rumborak
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I find this really interesting, more from an engineering point of view.
When one does these preparations, what is the goal? Just having enough food and drink for X months in the expectation that society will have rebooted until then? Or do you try to be indefinitely self-sufficient?
Or, do you just guard yourself against the most likely reasons of said societal breakdown? E.g. you build a fallout shelter because you think a dirty bomb is the most likely?
rumborak
Initially, it begins as simply preparing for natural disasters, be it whatever season it is and [XYZ] occurs and the power goes out for a couple days. Beyond that, it's trying to be as self-sufficient as you can if something REALLY BAD occurs. Unfortunately, pure self-sufficiency is not possible where I live, so I try to utilize my "group" for the assets or skills that I lack. That would be the ultimate goal if I lived somewhere in the country where I could own a large number of acreage, possibly, farm, etc.
I'm not at the level of building underground shelters... not paranoid enough for that (and again, I lack the land/resources). Guarding against a potential societal breakdown IS a fear of mine though. But let's say something bad happens (use your imagination) and it lasts just two weeks.... your local grocery store won't have more than 48-72 hours of supplies.. people will be going NUTS and show desperation.. if you're prepared in what ever way you can, you can weather the storm.
It REALLY depends where you live.. I'm not saying I need to be out in the middle of Montana, but if I had 20 acres somewhere an hour from a town, it would be a lot better. You learn a lot though.. I never knew much about solar/wind power until I started experimenting and "practicing" for bad times... makes me sleep a lot easier.. and as for stocking up on ammo... it's fun to work on those skills!
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I'm still not sure what kind of event you're sort of expecting. Natural disasters (the most likely I guess) have a way of wreaking such havoc to your best-laid plans, I would find it hard to plan for it. Put the stuff in the basement, and a flash flood nullifies your plans. Put it in the attic, and a tornado nullifies that one. How do you expect the unexpected? Look at Fukushima; hundreds of engineers made it their every-day living to plan for the unexpected, and still failed.
rumborak
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I think everybody knows deep down that we're pretty screwed. It's not very acceptable to be blah blah pessimistic though, since a good economy depends on a positive minded public. From an individual's point of view, though, its probably better to prepare for the worst.
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I'm still not sure what kind of event you're sort of expecting. Natural disasters (the most likely I guess) have a way of wreaking such havoc to your best-laid plans, I would find it hard to plan for it. Put the stuff in the basement, and a flash flood nullifies your plans. Put it in the attic, and a tornado nullifies that one. How do you expect the unexpected? Look at Fukushima; hundreds of engineers made it their every-day living to plan for the unexpected, and still failed.
rumborak
That's why you don't have just one plan, but several. :metal
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Societal breakdown is like the prisoner's dilemma but on a national scale. Which is troubling.
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Well, reading that 1st option in the poll is pretty much what got us here in the 1st place. We should be on the road to financial responsibility or nothing will ever get better. The fun is over.
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https://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2011/06/house-dems-applaud-obama-for-tapping-strategic-petroleum-reserve-boehner-says-move-threatens-nationa.html
Uuuuuh isn't this supposed to be a last resort? Is the world already running out of oil?
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I think we're peaking this year or something. I dunno, do we got an expert in the house?
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https://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2011/06/house-dems-applaud-obama-for-tapping-strategic-petroleum-reserve-boehner-says-move-threatens-nationa.html
Uuuuuh isn't this supposed to be a last resort? Is the world already running out of oil?
I don't think those reserves are really meant for when the world runs out of oil, are they? It's not like it would last for more than a few weeks if we really did run out.
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I hate to toot the "greed of the higher ups" horn, but lookit what I found:
https://lifeinc.today.com/_news/2011/06/23/6928660-good-graph-friday-youre-working-harder-theyre-making-money
By Allison Linn, senior business writer
A new graphic from Mother Jones shows what many of us suspect: We’ve gotten a lot more productive in recent years, but our wages haven’t reflected that.
The richest Americans, on the other hand, appear to be doing a better job reaping the rewards of everyone’s hard work.
The graphic, which uses data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Congressional Budget Office, Census Bureau and the Economic Policy Institute, shows that productivity has risen steadily over the past three decades, while overall wages have barely changed.
Meanwhile, the nation’s wealthiest have seen their income surge.
The chart is part of a series the left-leaning magazine is running on what it calls “The Great Speedup.” That’s a reference to the old trick of speeding up the production line and asking workers to make more widgets faster.
In addition to first person tales of being overworked, the magazine posits that we're all facing the great speedup:
Sound familiar: Mind racing at 4 a.m.? Guiltily realizing you've been only half-listening to your child for the past hour? Checking work email at a stoplight, at the dinner table, in bed? Dreading once-pleasant diversions, like dinner with friends, as just one more thing on your to-do list?
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Those CEO's, sitting on board adn giving directives, earned it, don't ya know? Sure, they work less than anyone below them, but it's only becuase of their ingenuity that anything gets made!
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I mean I think there is merit to saying that higher ups have more responsibilities in terms of getting the whole thing to operate smoothly; without them pulling the strings and figuring out the maze, corporations would be nothing more than a clusterfuck of grunts. Honestly there is no easy or good answer, if you ask me.
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I don't pretend that I could do what the CEO of my company does. But is his job 100x more important or 100x more difficult to do than mine? I doubt it. So how come his pay is probably 100x greater than mine?
My biggest annoyance is when CEO's get raises or bonuses if the rest of the company doesn't.
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Maybe the CEO isn't vastly more important but I wouldn't say the person whose job it is to make 100,000+ grunts work in unison is equally important as said individual grunt. But I agree, bonuses/raises should trickle down.
Perhaps adding to the confusion is the fact that during the boom of the last decade 100% of growth went to the richest 1%.
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I suppose my statement did come out a tad too against management, but it's absurd what kind of compensation they get for the kind of work they do.
That, and a lot of the income from the top 1% comes from the stock market, where people are doing nothing productive in and of itself.
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Yeah, don't get me wrong, I do still believe they're vastly overpaid. :lol
It's just that they do still merit more payment than underlings since they run the show; just give the underlings more money.
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I think we're peaking this year or something. I dunno, do we got an expert in the house?
The U.S. already peaked in the 70s. As for world peak, its pretty controversial.
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Oh yes, I meant the world peak, sorry. :P
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https://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2011/06/house-dems-applaud-obama-for-tapping-strategic-petroleum-reserve-boehner-says-move-threatens-nationa.html
Uuuuuh isn't this supposed to be a last resort? Is the world already running out of oil?
I don't think those reserves are really meant for when the world runs out of oil, are they? It's not like it would last for more than a few weeks if we really did run out.
They need to last for 90 days by law.
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I got another huge raise this year and I work for a fortune 1000 company. There are many that got big raises, but they key is you have to be a great, innovative worker. If your job is at risk of soon-to-be automation or cheaper employee can be found for the same work, then you're screwed.
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re: the oil reserves; the way I see it its a shot of macroeconomic stimulus. Bringing the oil price down should help consumers in the western world and ease pressure on inflation in the developing world. Good move.
If I remember correctly, G20 finance ministers met over the past week and this was probably one of the outcomes. Ofcourse, they won't admit it though.
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Good move.
In the veeery short run.
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Well, yes, ofcourse its short-run; but what more can you expect from the ineptitude of developed world policy makers? ;D
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I think it may be time to necro this thread. Markets are tanking left right and centre at the moment...generally a pretty good sign that someones about to get their shit fucked up. Yields on Italian and Spanish bonds are getting into danger territory (400 pips above bunds - which is what triggered Greece and Ireland), and US data is pretty damn horribile.
I'll reset the poll; and for the record, the pessimists won 16 to 4 with 14 people afraid to stick their neck out.
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I think it may be time to necro this thread. Markets are tanking left right and centre at the moment...generally a pretty good sign that someones about to get their shit fucked up. Yields on Italian and Spanish bonds are getting into danger territory (400 pips above bunds - which is what triggered Greece and Ireland), and US data is pretty damn horribile.
I'll reset the poll; and for the record, the pessimists won 16 to 4 with 14 people afraid to stick their neck out.
Did this happen because of fears about the US default?
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My read is that global investors were so focussed on the US debt ceiling debacle that they weren't really paying attention to any other rumblings in the global economy. Basically, most of the data out over the past two weeks has been shite (particularly confidence, labour market and consumption stuff - manufacturing appears to be holding up quite well) and they are now playing catch up. Ofcourse, I don't really like using financial markets as a guide, but when three things happen in concert: yield curves invert, stocks fall heavily and currencies move a lot; somethings up. Japan also unilaterally intervened to weaken its currency this morning (evening), with the finance minister saying he had "contacted other central banks to discuss the possibility of intervention, and after which decided Japan could only act unilaterally (ie, noone else liked the idea)".
My worry is that US payroll data due out tomorrow will potentially be the tipping point (there it is again); good data and this might all blow over for now, bad data and things could get ugly next week.
Couple that with continued unrest in MENA, Italian and Spanish yields pushing into danger territory and a Chinese government focused on bringing prices under control. To be honest, we might have a bit of Three Stooges Syndrome at the moment.
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It's things like this make me wonder if Congressmen and Senators are just blissfully unaware of anything going on outside of the US.
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I'd just like to say in light of this:
From a book of famous quotes: "Economists are experts who will know tomorrow why what they predicted yesterday didn't happen today."
I was right about last night :p
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:P
But I was right about the slight chance of economic armageddon.
We really need to stop with this deficit bullshit. It's time to focus on the real problem: unemployment.
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:P
But I was right about the slight chance of economic armageddon.
We really need to stop with this deficit bullshit. It's time to focus on the real problem: unemployment.
Um, I definitely agree that unemployment is the issue of the here and now. However, what is your plan, since you seem perfectly fine with companies outsourcing and the gov giving companies no real incentives not to.
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When did I ever say that? Although there actually isn't anything wrong with that, and no offense Master Shak, but I'm not sure you know enough about economics or politics to make a judgment, based on our previous discussions. :p
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Um, it did seem in previous discussions that you were more in favor of outsourcing than not.
I seriously want to see what your plan is, in terms of the unemployment issue and resolving it, as it probably is a good idea and would end up working a good deal better than whateve is attempted by DC.
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Global integration.
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Hmm... the pressure on businesses here to do extremely well through high-quality products and compotent leadership, due to having to compete on a global scale could end up getting good things done.
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Exactly. I don't remember which P/R thread it's in (try 'You know what the problem is?'), but I pretty much outline the problem for Reap, that instead of taking the leap to innovate and compete on a global scale, American companies nowadays turn to Capitol Hill to make domestic competition easier for them, through such horrifying measures as striking down green tech bills or emissions cap bills just so Ford won't have to try as hard to compete with electric vehicles coming out of Japan or something (it's a hypothetical, but you get the point).
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Hmm, it seems with each time I wander here, I see more and more of the answer, and it seems, from my view, now, that the problem is that our companies are poorly manage and intend to have an iron grip on the gov in order to not have to actually compete with foreign companies who produce greater quality products. What do we normal people do?
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Hmm, it seems with each time I wander here, I see more and more of the answer, and it seems, from my view, now, that the problem is that our companies are poorly manage and intend to have an iron grip on the gov in order to not have to actually compete with foreign companies who produce greater quality products. What do we normal people do?
I mean that's not *exactly* where it is, but yes on the whole American corporate culture is infected with an unfortunate management mindset (not really poor management, but sort of a failure to place the long-term over the short-term).
And y'know what? I have no idea what we can do. All I know about is global warming and clean tech policy, I don't know shit about market or corporate politics, let alone about what the average Joe can do.
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What can the everyday dude and dudette do? Not much, unfortunately. As with SD, I've made my points on the US labour market in another thread; but in summary alot of the job creation of the previous decade was driven by the asset bubble, when it popped it all faded and seeing as it hasnt inflated again, you'll see a long, slow period of structural adjustment.
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So, how are we feeling now?
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So, how are we feeling now?
Great! How are you?
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Seems like nothing has really happened since you asked the question except the passage of time...
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A little bit has happened, but you are right time has kind of passed with nothing of real note going on...
I saw an interesting Bloomberg chart that a colleague emailed to me the other day; on overnight interbank lending rates for the world's 7 largest banks. Over the past month, risk premiums have essentially doubled, which is what occurred during the lead up to the Lehman collapse in '08. Slightly concerning...given the world's largest sovereign areas (the US and EU) are so policy-ed out that they literally couldn't respond to another shitstorm with stimulus.
News out of China has been pretty good though; inflation looks like its flattening out and production indicators are still ticking over. The stupid gold rally looks to have come off finally, which is nice, and equities and currencies are looking a bit more stable than this time two weeks ago.
Bernanke's speech tonight (tommorrow for everyone else, I guess) will be very important. To print or not to print, that is the question.
Great! How are you?
Zing!
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/bernanke-scolds-congress-over-budget-debate/2011/08/26/gIQAcxKFgJ_story.html
lol
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It appears GFC mkII may be upon us. Yield curves are inverting, default swaps and interbank rates are spiking higher in Europe. Apparently Deuche Bank is up shit creek, ala Lehman Bros; get ready for another wild ride this week!
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I heard someone say this entire global financial crisis and all the recession have been nothing real in a sense, but a confidence crisis. Is that true?
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Confidence is no doubt playing a role, but its kind of like one of those things where you create your own fate; weak confidence breeds weak confidence and eventually people just throw in the towel. We are seeing it happen in Australia, in particular my state Western Australia who has the fastest growing, most stable economy in the developed world right now. Confidence has fallen to GFC levels, despite low unemployment, rising incomes and a once-in-a-generation mining boom.
IMO, and in the opinion of many right now, political leaders are being so insipid in the face of challenges that constituents have lost faith, hence the fall in confidence. Although, the US and Europe do have their fair share of problems, both economic and financial. A weak political response compounds this; at times like these you need real leaders not political animals.
Wow soapbox much lol
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Soapbox or not, you're totally right. In the absence of real leaders, as in your words, we get very real Hitlers 'n' stuff. Not that I think something that crazy would happen in the modern day and age, but it is in times of such hardship that the radicals come out of the woodwork.
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You wouldn't be referring to a number of candidates for the American Presidency on a certain side of the political spectrum, would you? ;D
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Actually I wasn't but you see what I mean now, don't you? :p
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I heard someone say this entire global financial crisis and all the recession have been nothing real in a sense, but a confidence crisis. Is that true?
Funny you mention this. The first time I heard this excuse was back in 2008 by my best friend who studies economics. Boy, how wrong she was :lol
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A year from now, everyone will be wishing it was this year again.
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Dr Doom is a bit more doom-ey than usual:
https://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2011/09/19/how-to-prevent-a-depression/
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So, Europe's fucked.
Hows things in the US? Recent data has been pretty good, not great certainly. Dat 2% growth is certainly a good sign...
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What's fucking Europe today?
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Well, you know how the EU worked out the 5th iteration of their "final plan" to fix the debt crisis? Greece's PM decided that, for the first time, he would like to put it to a referendum...which he hasn't done for the other four packages.
Seriously dude, you've just been given the fiscal equivilant of a golden handshake, and you want to let your pissed off, unemployed citizens decide whether its in their best interests? Dick move lol. In response to this, his party has basically fractured and he now holds just a two-seat majority in parliament, with the opposition parties vowing to scrap the deal if they get in power.
I hark back to this point I made a month or so ago:
...at times like these you need real leaders...
Its quite bizzare really. Everything I'm reading is kind of saying WTF is this dude doing? Just bizzare.
And the impact of this deal falling through will be another "Lehman moment" as its being colloquially called now. It will trigger a disorderly default on Greek debt and will likely push Italy and Spain over the edge too - in which case the newly beefed up European Financial Stability Fund won't be enough to back stop the shitstorm that will happen.
So yeah, things aren't great. Although as we have seen far too many times in this debacle, things can turn on a 5c piece...
On a somewhat related note, interesting read on the banking sector, political class and decision making. Very insightful (this authour is great):
https://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/European-Union-Greece-debt-crisis-referendum-banks-pd20111102-N7RAJ?OpenDocument&src=sph
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What's fucking Europe today?
More like Who.
https://news.yahoo.com/greeces-papandreou-toughs-referendum-pledge-013852717.html
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I'll repost this here so it doesn't get lost. But Eric has it in three words.
Well, you know how the EU worked out the 5th iteration of their "final plan" to fix the debt crisis? Greece's PM decided that, for the first time, he would like to put it to a referendum...which he hasn't done for the other four packages.
Seriously dude, you've just been given the fiscal equivilant of a golden handshake, and you want to let your pissed off, unemployed citizens decide whether its in their best interests? Dick move lol. In response to this, his party has basically fractured and he now holds just a two-seat majority in parliament, with the opposition parties vowing to scrap the deal if they get in power.
I hark back to this point I made a month or so ago:
...at times like these you need real leaders...
Its quite bizzare really. Everything I'm reading is kind of saying WTF is this dude doing? Just bizzare.
And the impact of this deal falling through will be another "Lehman moment" as its being colloquially called now. It will trigger a disorderly default on Greek debt and will likely push Italy and Spain over the edge too - in which case the newly beefed up European Financial Stability Fund won't be enough to back stop the shitstorm that will happen.
So yeah, things aren't great. Although as we have seen far too many times in this debacle, things can turn on a 5c piece...
On a somewhat related note, interesting read on the banking sector, political class and decision making. Very insightful (this authour is great):
https://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/European-Union-Greece-debt-crisis-referendum-banks-pd20111102-N7RAJ?OpenDocument&src=sph
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Eh, Greece's debt is too big to ever repay. It will default eventually, might as well get it over with and leave the Eurozone.
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Nobody really cares about Greece. The problem is that a defaulting Greece will push Italy over the edge, and then everybody is fucked. Because nobody can pay enough money to stabilize Italy.
rumborak
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What would happen to Germany?
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Good question! Germany lives off its export, and a tanking European economy will drag it down with it. It would certainly bring about a second global recession.
So, I can not fathom what the point of Papandreou is to play with fire like that.
rumborak
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A Greek and an Italian walk into a bar. The German pays the bill.
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Was just reading an article about, no matter what politics decides, the markets are already distinguishing between "hard Euro" countries (Germany and the Scandinavian countries) and "weak Euro" countries (essentially all countries with Romance languages), and they're also not even considering Greece to be in the Eurozone anymore for their planning purposes.
rumborak
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So basically Greece has very little incentive to commit to its debt and stick with the Euro.
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Was just reading an article about, no matter what politics decides, the markets are already distinguishing between "hard Euro" countries (Germany and the Scandinavian countries) and "weak Euro" countries (essentially all countries with Romance languages), and they're also not even considering Greece to be in the Eurozone anymore for their planning purposes.
rumborak
Was it this one?
https://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/European-Union-Greece-debt-crisis-referendum-banks-pd20111102-N7RAJ?OpenDocument&src=sph
I think they say pretty much the same thing.
But yeah, Greece is one of, if not the, most insignificant member of the Euro area and so who in an economic sense Germany and France don't really care what happens to them. Like has been said, a default in Greece sends a schism through financial markets, which would push other countries that are close to the brink over it, and thats when the party would begin.
The plan that was agreed to is a default, noones calling it that though. Its just that its an orderly default, in that banks and creditors know what they are losing and can plan accordingly. If this was to go down the disorderly path...well yeah see above. The market rules, unfortunately, and its largely the fault of governments a) not standing up to them and b) giving them an implicit guarentee that they will back them up.
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Word on the street is banks are starting to turn off the interbank lending tap.
Germany couldn't sell all of its bonds to investors for the first time, ummm, pretty much ever during the week.
UKs banking prudential authority has told its banks to build up their capital buffers post haste.
S&P has told Japan to get its shit together otherwise they will be downgraded (which is bad when you are leveraged the equivilant of 225% of your economy).
Things aren't looking great at all folks, probably beyond repair and we are going to need another 'Lehman moment' to shake things out.
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Lets do the rounds again people. Two new, important, economic tidbits were out today:
China Flash PMI (the unofficial one) came in below 50 - indicating a contraction in output.
Japan manufacturer sentiment moves into negative territory, despite them being as busy as they've been in a while with domestic production. Tells me that they are seeing a fall off in global demand.
I'm sticking to a rating of 1/5 for prospects for now.
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Christ. Why is everything just completely falling apart?
(More of a rhetorical question than anything)
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Dataflow tonight has been interesting: US manufacturing & initial jobless claims suprise on upside (former by a fair bit apparently), but UK retail sales were much worse than expected. One whack of QE working, the other not...hmmmmmmmm
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Soooooo Euro crisis has been pretty quiet of late, yes? Pick one of the three, they all say a similar thing:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-10/treasuries-remain-higher-after-32-billion-3-year-sale.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-10/japan-australian-stock-futures-fall-on-spain-bond-yields.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-10/u-s-stock-index-futures-gain-as-alcoa-kicks-off-reports.html
Get ready for a new round of turbulance...
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I've been hearing that Japan may be the next place to blow and that could be it for the global economy... at least how we know it now.
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I wouldn't worry about Japan. They've got world-leading industries, high levels of productivity and the capacity to control their own money supply/monetary policy, plus they've got a shittonne of forex reserves - they'll be fine. From memory, despite the highest debt to GDP ratio in the world, they are still a net creditor to global markets.
Europe on the other hand, or at least the parts under pressure, have none of these things (they don't make anything, they have poor productivity, have no control over monetary policy and run massive current account deficits).
And so their governments are at the mercy of the markets - while Japan can (and has done a few times recently with its currency) flip the bird to the markets.
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Further proof that developed countries really should not stop "making things." Seriously, is anyone else noticing a trend here?
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Further proof that developed countries really should not stop "making things." Seriously, is anyone else noticing a trend here?
You'd think it be obvious.
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So I haven't bumped this in a while (mostly because I've been busy writing and researching the clusterfuck that is the global economy). For those who want a really great summary of the Euro crisis and its historical/systemic roots, there was a program on the ABC (Australia's public broadcaster) last night that I think you should be able to watch. Its 45 minutes long, but do yourselves a favour and check it out:
https://www.abc.net.au/iview/#/view/956130
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Whew, okay. Whenever I see this thread has been updated I get a vague feeling of dread about the state of the world. :lol
And I might be biased, but I think Japan has handled its economy more than admirably, and people really are misreading the Lost Decade, even the Japanese themselves.
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Haha well...things are going to get very dicey in Europe (again) in the next seven days. This is how savage markets are these days: Spain gets 100 billion Euros to sort its banking system out with no conditions attached (unlike Greece, Portugal and Ireland that had to jump through hoops to get their cash), and their bond yields rise to a Euro-era record! No doubt its related to risk pricing for the Greek election on the weekend, but still, it just boggles the mind.
I hope you guys in the US are getting decent coverage of the Europe situation, because its pretty important for the medium-term outlook.